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GLOBAL DISASTER BOARD, End of the World Is Nigh?!?
triage
post Posted: Mar 16 2014, 06:55 PM
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In Reply To: Alethia's post @ Mar 15 2014, 11:50 AM

Alethia

QUOTE
Personally I think nothing will happen.


Well I hope you are right. My comments are solidly based in ignorance of the facts on the ground - for instance seeing how Crimea used to be part of Russia until the 1950's and seeing how ethnic Russians make up the bulk of the population there perhaps it is all a bit of a non-event. But seeing how I posted on the tin-foil-hat thread I felt obligated to zerohedge my post and play up the worst possible scenario.

For what it is worth I came across this article this afternoon that actually seems to give respectability to one of my wild assertions: that at least some of the anti-fracking, anti-gas lobbies that are frustrating unconventional gas development in the West are funded and motivated by Russian opertatives. (...talk about monkeys with typewriters in me getting even close to a plausible story ...)

QUOTE
At the end of last year, the European Union took an important step in this direction with the establishment of the Southern Gas Corridor. This pipeline will begin in Azerbaijan’s massive Shah Deniz gas field and end in Italy, connecting seven different countries. The project will reach some of Europe’s most vulnerable nations and most likely help lower gas prices there....

...It should not be surprising that the Southern Gas Corridor has caught Moscow’s ire. Russian-run Gazprom is attempting to buy up gas transit and transmission infrastructure along the pipeline route to try to undermine the project. Even more insidious, it has paid environmental movements to try to stymie construction with environmental claims. This is not the first time that Gazprom has used bogus environmental movements to promote its interests. It has also funded anti-fracking campaigns in Europe, including in Ukraine and Bulgaria, to slow Europe’s development of local gas supplies. If public watchdogs in Europe do not monitor and publicize Russia’s manipulation of environmental causes, distinguishing its claims from those of legitimate environmental organizations, it will find itself increasingly dependent on Russian gas imports.


http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141...peline-problems

Wow! Whoda thunk that the Liberal premier of NSW, Barry the BOF, and his right-wing agrarian socialist mates in the National Party have been willingly doing the hard-yards on behalf of Czar Vladimir and Gasprom (what adds insult to injury is most probably the buffoons have been doing so pro bono).

Anyway the author of the article seems to totally miss the idea that the Europeans would be better off fracking their own shale deposits rather than ship or pipe gas in from elsewhere so maybe the main point to my previous post is a out-and-out crock (?).



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle
 
Alethia
post Posted: Mar 15 2014, 11:50 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Mar 15 2014, 10:22 AM

Personally I think nothing will happen. Crimea will became part of Russia. America will do nothing. It will huff and puff, but America is like a poker player holding the weakest hand at the table and trying to bluff. EU will do nothing.

Next comes the problem for Russia of getting to Crimea through Ukraine. Similar to Kaliningrad next to Lithuania.

Probably fast track a bridge across the Kertsch Strait.

Lithuania is not happy about Russian transport going across Lithuania, but Russia keeps making noises about how the planning and project is on track. LOL



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The caterpillar does all the work but the butterfly gets all the publicity.
 
triage
post Posted: Mar 15 2014, 10:22 AM
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I see that the paralympics that are being held in Russia end tomorrow (their time) ...

... admittedly I'm a tad biased in that I have long held the view / prejudice that Russia is under the control of crooks and crazies but I expect that once Mr Putin gets his photo opportunity at the closing ceremony out of the way he will unleash a wave of shock and awe on numerous fronts as he makes his next move in re-establishing the Russian empire.

The obvious focus will be a military offensive into parts of Ukraine as he secures the safety of ethnic Russians from the neo-nazis. Also an obvious focus will be the threat of cutting off the supply of gas into and through Ukraine on the basis that the Ukrainians have defaulted on paying their bills to Gazprom. He will likely also threaten to crash the financial systems in the West in retaliation for the EU and the US threatening to impose financial sanctions on Russia and its wealthiest crooks.

Given that Russia's current bout of macho is almost entirely funded by petrodollars my guess is that that will be where the yanks go after Mr Putin in the longer term. I have read it described that the US's cracking of tight shale with fracking is the most significant geopolitical change of the current decade - personally I'm not sure about the longevity of the shale boom but if it lasts then the ample and cheap supplies of hydrocarbons to the US does seem to change lots of calculations - and I reckon that western Europe will attempt to relatively quickly develop the substantial shale areas in places like the UK and Poland. But how things play in the next couple of weeks is a mystery to me.

Here's a thought from tin-foil-hat land .... how much has the likes of the Lock-the-Gates groups and the Greens, the Nationals and Barry O'Farrell been effectively aiding and abetting Russia in its attempts to ensure that the world remains unhealthily dependent on Russian gas??? (Also remember that it was the Russian Central Bank last year that was at the forefront of holding the Aussie at unsustainably high levels - the Ruskies are many things but the best of them are not stupid imo.)

Obviously I have not a clue how this will play out but I presume that Mr Putin will continue being entirely unreasonable but very rational in what he is willing to try on ie he is no doomsday cultist [unlike some in the US right and many in the Middle East].



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle

Said 'Thanks' for this post: grevillia  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 24 2014, 08:31 AM
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Ever get that feeling of Deja Vu??
Thirteen years ago, Argentina was plunged further in to an already chaotic state when it defaulted on USD$95 billion of debt to the rest of the world. It followed weeks of rioting, blackouts, looting and strikes.

Well we are seeing just that again. However this time, they reckon total debt is only up to 50 billion this time.
Bond insurers believe there is an 80% chance of default within 5 years.
Could a default in Argentina be the tipping point for the next GFC??

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
flower
post Posted: Oct 16 2013, 10:35 AM
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Overnight from The Washington Post:

US Credit Rating to go to "D"?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/o...;utm_medium=RSS



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
henrietta
post Posted: Apr 27 2013, 08:01 PM
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Paul Kelly paints a sobering picture of Australia's immediate future.

QUOTE



Cheers
J


Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 


triage
post Posted: Apr 13 2013, 03:25 PM
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Time has finally run out for the designer of that favourite symbol of gloomsters around the world. Yes folks I am saddened to pass on the news that Martyl Langsdorf, creator of the doomsday clock, has hit the snooze button for the last time.

She designed the rather modernistic looking clock as a magazine cover in 1947 - her husband was one of a group of scientists working on the Manhattan project who wanted to inform the world of how dangerous their creation could be - and it has been kept updated ever since then: it currently is at five minutes to midnight (Kim Jong Un and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad apparently are not considered quite as menacing as Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong were back in 1953).

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/us/marty...at-96.html?_r=0

Mind you she did make it to the grand old age of 96 so she showed as much resilience as her one and only attempt at designing a magazine cover. And she's still got a brother alive so she had a good set of genes. FWIW read the article as she seems to have lived an interesting life.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 21 2013, 08:40 PM
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as I logged out of hotmail - ninensm threw up this : (I promptly threw up , too)

VOTE Should a child be allowed to change their gender?



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"Cause they told me everybody's got to pay their dues
And I explained that I had overpaid them"
- Rodriguez

"What a deplorable existence I lead in this absurd climate and under what frightful conditions! How boring! How stupid life is! What am I doing here?"
- Rimbaud 1884 (Aden)
 
triage
post Posted: Dec 24 2012, 08:56 AM
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A great depiction of some of the end-of-the-world predictions by The Economist. So far not a single one of them has come even close to nailing it ...

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdeta...m_source=buffer

Although folk like Martin Luther and the Jehovah's Witnesses each get their own line the magazine fails to point out that at least three of the major religions are heavily based on their own version of god fully intending to pull up stumps when he/He/she/She/It has tired of us. Nor do they mention that both PM Netanyahu and Prez Ahmadinejad are firm believers that indeed the end of the world is nigh, just that they have not gone public with a particular date. And of course current scientific thinking is that this particular universe we exist in is a finite entity, but the time scale usually talked of for the eventual universal collapse is not much longer than that expected for the EU members to sort themselves out so I guess that does not qualify as "nigh" (?).

My personal favourite is the prophet hen of Leeds (poor thing).



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle
 
triage
post Posted: Sep 18 2012, 11:15 AM
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For a long time now from time to time I have posted the latest piss and wind articles about whether Israel would or would not adopt Monty Python's welsh form of self-defence and king-hit Iran on the basis that Iran was about to king-hit Israel. I think the crazy Israeli PM, Mr Netanyahu, has been effectively pressuring the Americans to make all possible efforts to hinder the threat posed by the crazy Iranian president, Mr Ahmadinejad. And the middle-of-the-road Pres Obama has used every measure but one to try to appease the Israelis and hinder the Iranians.

But with the US presidential election only about a month and a half away Mr Netanyahu is about to lose a main pressure point: his ability to distort the American electoral process. In the interim he will be attempting to secure maximum advantage so things could get extremely tense in coming weeks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...ran-strike.html

http://swampland.time.com/2012/09/12/enter-bibi/

FWIW a while back I made the simplistic assumption that leading up to the election Obama would not allow a confrontation to occur that caused oil prices to spike and it would take a sudden unexplained drop in oil prices to flag that military action was about to take place. (It seems that the best case scenario being considered is that the Iranians could block the flow of a third of the world's oil supplies for at least a month). In recent times there has been some talk of the US accessing national reserves and overnight there was a small drop but earlier today the White House denied that a decision to make use of the national reserves had been made.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-1...tate-index-drop

Anyway come mid November hopefully a lot of heat will have gone out of this issue (I cannot believe that the yanks really want to go into another blue with the muslim world so soon).



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle
 
 


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