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Renewable Energy, Alternative energy, New energy, Solar, Geothermal, Wind
triage
post Posted: Apr 6 2012, 03:30 PM
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The Chinese continue to put a wrecking ball through the world's solar companies. This manufacturer of panels had a market cap of about US$10b in 2007 but now has filed for bankruptcy, and is one of a growing list of German operators that have been pulverised by the Chinese competition.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/busine...,825490,00.html

The American (manufacturing) sector is also copping an absolute belting, with the government recently introducing tariffs to dampen the effect of what the US industry considers to be illegal subsidies by the Chinese government. Imports of cheap solar panels to US from China in recent years have exploded, which is good for consumers and perhaps for the environment but which is killing off domeestic manufacturers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/21/business...lar-panels.html

But the thing is that apparently none of the Chinese companies are making a quid, not yet anyway.

This next article notes that the Chinese are experiencing a profitless boom but points out that the new US tariffs are not much more than a slap on the wrist for the Chinese so the current domination by the Chinese is likely to continue.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sun-spots...nk=MW_news_stmp

It seems that the ploy, whether government sanctioned or even wilfull or not, is for them to make use of ultra-cheap loans with rubbery conditions to hang in selling product at below cost in the hope that foreign competitors all whither away. This strategy seemed to have worked well with the rare earth market - the Chinese maintained such low prices for so long that all non-chinese mines were forced to close - but I suspect it will not work in the solar sector where hardship only encourages more innovation to be tried. I still back the yanks and the Europeans to out-invent the Chinese.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle

Said 'Thanks' for this post: arty  
 
Duster
post Posted: Mar 20 2012, 01:29 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Mar 20 2012, 01:00 PM

QUOTE
Shall watch the next couple of days whether the red candle turns out to signal capitulation/ panic.


See the WHE thread ........ no hurry imho, CR coming.

Their "u" project more than underpins the SP at these levels, and the UCG project is a free option (that's the way I look at it). One of the best management teams around IMO but you're probably not interested in any of the funda's

GDY ........... what can I say ???



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Patience is the key to success.
 
arty
post Posted: Mar 20 2012, 01:00 PM
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In Reply To: Duster's post @ Mar 20 2012, 12:14 PM

QUOTE
PTR are dead atm

Sad, but true; their demise cost me some pain. I reckon they started too many projects on too many fronts. For a start-up, that's difficult at the best of times, nigh impossible when economic woes put ecological concerns on the backseat.
But I'm taking another close look at GDY - what do you reckon?

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PS Thanks for mentioning WHE; I hadn't come across them yet, although they would've offered a few swinger quickies.
Today's volume looks encouraging - provided it's going to drive the price higher. Shall watch the next couple of days whether the red candle turns out to signal capitulation/ panic.

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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
Duster
post Posted: Mar 20 2012, 12:14 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Mar 20 2012, 11:56 AM

Hi Arty,

DYE have been on my watch for ever, although I can't even remember if I've owned them.... lol

What's going to rekindle interest in this sector ?

As sure as eggs, something will move 'em at some stage. I suppose this is another area where F/A is out the door. We need to look for movers and your way is the only way in that respect, otherwise one will sit with their money tied up in underperformers for an eternity.

Had my eye on CNX but they just keep heading south. PTR are dead atm, as are most of the "alternatives".

I'm keen on WHE and have traded them successfully on numerous occasions, however a buy/hold strategy on them would have been disastrous from 60c >>> 12c. My average this time around = 14c

Cheers,
D



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Patience is the key to success.
 
arty
post Posted: Mar 20 2012, 11:56 AM
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In Reply To: Duster's post @ Mar 20 2012, 11:30 AM

Hi Duster,
same train of thought here.
I've never quite dropped the renewable ball, so to speak. Kept an eye on the likes of CWE, DYE, CFU...
While I didn't hang on to every one of them, I did pick up a few DYE again and shall take part in their 18c spp this week too.
Have a look at their recent Q&A http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01280256 and progress reports http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01280446

(pity they got caught with the Bergen mob, who were just as bad as LaJolla sadsmiley02.gif )

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With proper protection/ risk management, 18c seems reasonable value, both fundamentally and by T/A.



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
Duster
post Posted: Mar 20 2012, 11:30 AM
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Did plenty on some of the renewables a few years back (especially geothermal) but with oil starting to push higher, is it time to re-visit some of them ?

Many are now trading at a fraction of their previous mc. Undervalued ? or has the market got got 'em where they should be ?

Any thoughts ?

I've dipped my toe in the water wrt Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) & a "U" or two but also having a look at geothermal again wacko.gif

Cheers,
D



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Patience is the key to success.
 


Dave_vic_ozz
post Posted: Dec 2 2011, 08:07 AM
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In Reply To: veeone's post @ Dec 1 2011, 12:57 PM

Link broken.

I am keen to read this.

Dave



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My comments reflect the moment in which they were posted.
Everything can change, and usually does, without notice.
 
veeone
post Posted: Dec 1 2011, 12:57 PM
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Why we won't need coal

Last month, the International Energy Agency released a stunning report that suggested that the future of thermal coal exports could be threatened if the world ever decides to implement the policies to limit global warming to an average 2°C, rather than just merely talking about it, as they are doing in Durban this fortnight.
The coal industry laughed, suggesting such a scenario was highly unlikely. But what if technology took the decision out of the hands of politicians, as seems increasingly likely with the plunging costs of renewables, particularly solar PV, across the globe? And what does that mean also for Australia's energy infrastructure, and the tens of billions of dollars that will be invested in the coming decade on the basis that business will continue as usual?
New forecasts from China suggest the cost of solar PV in that country will fall below that of coal-fired generation within 10 years. From that point, or even before, says Wu Dacheng, the vice chairman and secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Society, the country's energy build out will be dominated by cheaper renewables.
China, which has only just introduced its own feed-in tariff for solar PV, is anticipating massive growth, and has already upgraded its official forecasts to 2020 from 30GW to 50GW. But it concedes that 100GW of PV is possible and may even be overshot. Wu himself said earlier this year that China would reach 5GW in capacity by 2015, but it is now likely to reach that in 2012.
As Abengoa's Scott Frier noted, FiTs are not necessarily the cheapest form of incentive, but they are devastatingly effective in unleashing the forces of greed and pushing down costs as developers try and squeeze as much capacity within those metrics. And the Chinese are not fettered by established industry vested interests trying to hold this back. In China, the government is the vested interest, and they have already been ruthless in their closure of inefficient power stations.
Wu told Climate Spectator in Sydney on Wednesday that solar PV is already cheaper than peaking prices in some areas of China, and will match parity with commercial and industrial supply in 2014, will reach retail parity in 2018 (households pay less for electricity in China than industrial users), and match wholesale price parity by 2021, when prices will be around 0.6 yuan/kWh.
His forecasts were reinforced by Martin Green, the executive research director of the world-leading Photovoltaic Centre of Excellence at UNSW, who says solar PV is likely to fall below the cost of coal in Australia (wholesale grid parity) before the end of the decade. He points out that most studies, and much of government modeling, are based around solar PV having a cost of $3.50 a watt. He says it is already down to just over $1/watt and will likely halve again to 50c/watt by 2020.
This has broader implications for energy grids. Green and other experts say much of the infrastructure spending on poles and wires is based around the assumption of business as usual: that coal will continue to be the cheapest and the central source of power. “I don’t see anyone discussing a national grid centred around renewables, but they should be,” says David Mills, the founder of solar thermal technology firm Ausra, and one of the leading experts in solar technology. “We're about to spend so much money on the grid, shouldn’t we thinking about what we are going to be powering it with?“
Mills last year released the first version of his ground-breaking research that showed that the entire US grid could be powered by just wind and solar thermal, and he provided an update on that research at the Solar 2011 conference on Wednesday. Mills challenges the very concept of baseload power, the sort provided by coal and nuclear.
“People say we need baseload plans, but we don’t,” he says. Instead, grids can work perfectly well with a mixture of inflexible supply (wind that blows whenever it wants), and flexible supply (solar thermal with storage). Mills has yet to release the financial modelling for his scenario, but notes that wind is already cheaper than new-built coal in the US, and solar thermal with storage, and used as a peaking plant, will be competitive with peaking gas.
Mills did not factor in PV in his scenario, but it would have the same impact as wind. As wind and PV fills up the energy stack (they go first because they have the lowest short run marginal cost – wind and solar radiation is free), what is needed to complete the requirements is flexible generation. Coal doesn't fit the bill.
The first impacts of this have already been seen in South Australia, where wind has provided more than 20 per cent of annual output last year and much higher on occasions. In Germany, where wind and PV capacity amounts to 45GW, Statkfraft has announced this week that it may close two gas-fired power stations, amounting to one gigawatt of capacity, because of this impact. And this in a country which has just shut down half its nuclear fleet and will soon close the rest.
A UNSW team of Ben Elliston, Mark Diesendorf and Iain MacGill has just released its own study of how Australia could power its entire grid on renewables. And like Mills, they also see solar with storage as a type of peaking plant. “The whole concept of baseload becomes redundant,” Elliston told Climate Spectator. “It’s worse than redundant, it gets in the way.”
The UNSW study, based on simulations of Australia’s energy needs in 2010, found that the entire supply could be met by a mix of solar thermal with storage, wind, solar PV, existing hydro and peaking gas plants running on biofuels. Only six hours of the year fail to meet the NEM’s reliability standard, all in evening peaks in the winter months.
Elliston says that one of the biggest impediments is the build-out of long-life assets – or the lack of long-term signals. “The business-as-usual market approach, where we plan at the margin, is not going to get us there. We need to start a new strategy now, which means not building new coal-fired power stations, and building transmission lines in the right place to build renewables .”

The authorities, and the utilities, do not seem to be listening. Indeed, Rick Brazzale, the head of Green Energy Trading, took up this theme when he told the conference that the Australian Energy market Operators’ annual statement of opportunities report, which gives forecasts of demand and is used by the industry to plan its expenditure, showed that non-peak demand would continue to rise in the coming decade, even though the experience of the past three years showed that PV and energy efficiency initiatives had caused it to stop, or even retreat.
Mills notes how the rollout of PV and electric vehicles could dramatically alter the way consumers use the grid. With utilities expanding time-of-use pricing – at 42c/kWh or more in peak periods in NSW, nearly twice the cost of PV – consumers were more likely to use their own solar arrays and the battery in their EV to reduce their demand on the grid. As British Telecom found out when raising phone charges to justify its land network, people use it less – forcing prices to go even higher to recoup the cost of investment. The same trend is likely to occur in energy, Elliston says.
So, if coal no longer has a place in the energy stakes of the future, is Australia then impoverished by its lack of thermal coal exports and doomed to take the cheapest PV imports from China? No, says the UNSW’s Green – he says more than half of the economic value of solar PV remains in its installation and commissioning, which is all local. And he says Australia has a unique opportunity to become a solar technology hub for the Asia Pacific region.
China may have the biggest manufacturers of solar PV, but they are relying on partnerships with Australian universities such as UNSW for their R&D, and their ability to remain at the cutting edge. And, says Green, there is also a great opportunity in education and training. Education is already Australia’s third largest export earner with $18 billion of sales last year. Cleantech such as solar could be a sizeable component of that sum.
John Grimes, the head of Australian Solar Energy Society, agrees. “The public has a perception that that solar is expensive, that it has failed,” he says. But there is in fact a seismic shift happening globally and it is all about China, which has flicked the switch on domestic consumption.
“This presents threats and opportunities. Threats are what we need to manage, but we should be pursing the opportunities.” Grimes says Australia should be pursuing a more strategic partnerships with China – like that between UNSW and Suntech, the world’s biggest solar PV maker. “Australia can leverage off the enormous manufacturing juggernaut that is China and generate maximum benefit to the economy.” climatespectator.com.au



 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 29 2011, 12:10 PM
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In Reply To: moosey's post @ Jul 26 2011, 01:22 PM

$187 billion. That’s how much was invested last year in building renewable power plants -- wind, sun, waves and biomass -- surpassing global investments in fossil fuels ($157 billion) for the first time in history, according to an analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. You can read more about it at our new site devoted to all things sustainability: www.bloomberg.com/sustainability.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman
 
moosey
post Posted: Jul 26 2011, 01:22 PM
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This article,
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/comment...swer-lies-below
Cleaner coal? The answer lies below.

Makes some good sense, but I would go two or three steps further, especially in the Latrobe Valley, I would use the geothermal to preheat the water for steam generation for the turbines as they allude to and the benefits from doing so, but I would also replace the coal with gas over time, I would fill the open cut with water for storage and also prevent spontaneous combustion, but as I said before this would have to be a gradual process to prevent massive job losses similar to what we had here after Mr Kennet decided to privatise the power industry in Victoria.

But more to the point, I would also make one more very important step in the process, one that should have been made many years ago, I would give a 10% discount on any power and perhaps a similar discount on gas to any medium to heavy industry that set up in the Latrobe Valley, this would help to offset some of the job losses from the closure of the coal fired power stations, by allowing other industries set up in the area with a financial benefit for them to do so, perhaps along with some foresight by our local government for a change, something that has also been lacking for many years now, again due to Mr Kennet and his council amalgamation which he foisted upon us, maybe they could give some sort of incentive in the form of rates relief, again as an incentive for industry to move here ,

This introduction of a discount would actually cost nothing in real terms , because they effectively lose that much in transmission losses providing power to Melbourne anyway, not to mention the savings in infrastructure to get the power there as well, this way the existing power lines to Melbourne and beyond would last much longer capacity wise for many years to come.

The gas they use also already comes from this region,and yet again we get nothing from that either, although the costs in getting it to these other areas is pretty hefty? the people of the Latrobe Valley have been repeatedly overlooked by both sides of politics for many many years now , if it isn't about Melbourne Ballarat Bendigo or Geelong then it doesn't get a look in.

This could be one of those win win situations, one where there aren't any losers in the end.

This is what the Germans did with it's heavy industries, they placed them next to the power source in the Rhur Valley, smart thinking wasn't it.



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All posters Please note, the decision to either buy or sell this share is entirely the individuals choice, I am not authorised to give investment advice, I post here to discuss the merits of technology as I see it, which may or may not be correct? and any information here is worth what you paid for it! the moose is loose
 
 


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