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OIL, Discussion
triage
post Posted: Sep 29 2016, 06:15 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 29 2016, 01:33 PM

And so the various oil players attempt to position the fulcrum so that price of oil is high enough for the various oil states to pay some bills but not high enough as to encourage the US oil shale companies in particular to start ramping up production again.

QUOTE
But in the United States the big shale companies - the ones responsible for the bulk of all new onshore domestic crude output - survived. They confounded OPEC by cutting costs and finding new ways to squeeze more oil from rock.The likes of Anadarko Petroleum Corp, EOG Resources Inc, Apache Corp and more than 25 other companies showed they can weather oil at $40 a barrel and profitably drill new wells as oil ticks toward $60 a barrel.

Many U.S. shale companies, eyeing a rebound, even added acreage this year during a $12 billion land grab in the oil-rich Permian Basin of West Texas.

At least 32 companies raised a record $20.40 billion in equity markets in the first eight months of this year, with half of them doing so to buy oily land.

In July, Pioneer Natural Resources Chief Executive Scott Sheffield said overhauled shale companies were now cost competitive with Saudi Arabia.



http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-mee...e-idUSKCN11Z0BT

Uncle Vlad needs to get his agents to keep pushing for western governments to ban fracking. I see that it has been banned in Scotland and the British Labour Party is saying that they would also ban it in England if they were to come to government (a low probability in my view as long as they stick with Jeremy Corbyn). And of course various Australian state governments will not allow it.














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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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nipper
post Posted: Sep 29 2016, 01:33 PM
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oil sector up 5-6-8-10-12%


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At their informal meeting in Algeria, OPEC members recognised that a production cut was necessary to lift oil prices and appear to have agreed that their collective output levels need to be cut by about 700,000 barrels a day from their current levels of 33.2 million barrels a day. What hasn't been agreed is the detail of those cuts, and where they will fall, although it appears that the Saudis are going to have to wear the brunt of them.

A committee has been formed to work through the apportionment of the cuts and report to the next meeting in Vienna on 30 November but the Saudi Energy Minister, Khalid al-Falih, is reported to have said that Iran, Libya and Nigeria could be allowed to produce at "maximum levels that make sense" even if other producers curtailed their production.

Previous attempts to stabilise the market foundered over the Saudis insistence that Iran, in particular, freeze its production.

Iran has made it clear that, after years of punishing sanctions, it has no intention of agreeing to a supply freeze until its production gets back to pre-sanction levels of about four million barrels a day. Iran is currently producing around 3.6 million barrels a day. Libya and Nigeria are trying to restore production volumes after their supply was disrupted by internal conflicts




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 10 2016, 03:13 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Aug 10 2016, 02:45 PM

Interesting article Triage, but with all of these stats you have to ask a few basic questions.
Firstly, how many North American Oil companies are there?
Is 90 companies a significant percentage of the total?
Is the percentage going bust larger than recent times?
Is it larger than the overall percentage for the US?
How does it compare to other sectors?
How many would have gone bust anyway, thru incompetence fraud, poorly financed, etc etc.?
In isolation, its hard to tell whether the figure tells us much at all .
Playing the Devils advocate here. devilsmiley.gif

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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triage
post Posted: Aug 10 2016, 02:45 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Aug 3 2016, 07:48 AM

In my post from last week I stated that:

QUOTE
As it turns out apparently no major US shale oil production company has gone bust (that from another article I read the other week),


The article in the following link suggests that might not be the case

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/Wor...an-Oil-Gas.html

The article reports on research showing that 90 north American oil companies have gone bust since the start of 2015. and whilst it does not identify whether any of those 90 firms were shale oil producers I would think that that would be likely. The other question is if any shale oil companies did go belly up were they major players or not.

And as an add-on the final paragraph from that article contains this gloomy prediction.

QUOTE
The bankruptcy bug isn’t only affecting North American energy firms. A Deloitte study published in February concluded that a “third of the world’s publicly-traded oil companies are at high risk of going bankrupt this year.”


... though of course you'd have to know what oil price Deloitte based their prediction on.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
triage
post Posted: Aug 3 2016, 07:48 AM
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I think he gets his terminology muddled at one point but Ambrose of the London Tele argues that if the intention of the Saudis crashing the oil price was to kill off US shale oil then they have failed. Some time ago when Eschmun (?) was posting on ss he was convinced that the high relative costs and high debt levels of the US shalers and frackers would break the US sector. I tended to think that the shale oil sector would end up being a perfect example of creative destruction and that whilst those US companies that were over-leveraged may fail others would buy up the distressed assets and power forward.

As it turns out apparently no major US shale oil production company has gone bust (that from another article I read the other week), and that the survivors have become so lean and efficient that they can pay their bills at current oil prices. The thing about producing oil from shale is that producers can take no time at all to bring new fields into production if the oil price bobs above their breakeven price (unlike deep sea operations that take many years and billions of dollars). So every time the oil price moves upwards the US shale oil producers can increase production. To me this suggests that oil prices may be range bound for some time to come.

Anyway I'm all for confirmation bias and Ambrose's article is that for me.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/0...o-a-standstill/

The funny thing is whilst fracking and extracting oil and gas from shale remains a huge event in the States everywhere else it is about popular as lip kissing your mother-in-law.

I guess that means that the oil sector will remain for some time to come as the domain of the TA boffins (like our Elliot and cooderman) (??).



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
Elliott
post Posted: Jul 30 2016, 06:38 PM
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In Reply To: Elliott's post @ Jul 30 2016, 06:52 AM

Yes, BPT waiting to trigger for me too, as is AWE. Only on CTX which bucked the trend on Friday due to results.

Good setups but all need to trigger...a setup doesn't make the money of course.



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My posts are for discussion and educational value only. They are not to be construed as advice in any way.

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cooderman
post Posted: Jul 30 2016, 09:44 AM
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In Reply To: Elliott's post @ Jul 30 2016, 06:52 AM

Hi Elliot, Watching USOUSD on Daily and is a similar setup. Reaching oversold levels and may turn back up next week.

BPT my choice for a trade if it does.

Attached Image




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Elliott
post Posted: Jul 30 2016, 06:52 AM
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In Reply To: wolverine's post @ Jun 29 2016, 09:02 PM

Everybody is turning bearish oil...but, a nice looking H&S reversal pattern on this chart.

I currently hold CTX, and looking for other low risk entries.
Attached thumbnail(s)
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My posts are for discussion and educational value only. They are not to be construed as advice in any way.

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wolverine
post Posted: Jun 29 2016, 09:02 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 19 2016, 11:42 AM

QUOTE
U.S. crude inventories at the highest in more than 80 years


Fark me that is an awesome sound bite.

Also awesomely retarded considering oil demand 80 years ago vs today.



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TOO MANY CHIEFS

NOT ENOUGH INDIANS

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Brierley
post Posted: Jun 29 2016, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 19 2016, 11:42 AM

I recall last Year Ol Gazza called POO going to sub USD20/brl which seemed a bit out there at the time. It did get to USD26 though.

He hasn't changed his tune, as explained in this Bloomberg article dated 28-06-16. Makes some fair points imo.

OIL STILL HEADING TO $10 A BARREL

 
 


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