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OIL, Discussion
flower
post Posted: Jan 20 2014, 10:19 AM
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In Reply To: marketwinner's post @ Jan 20 2014, 09:59 AM

QUOTE
We could see era of lower oil prices below $100 in 2014 and 2015. My target is $80pb and below.


Are you talking about WTI or TAPIS oil prices?

Right now WTI is USD94.37, TAPIS USD114.75

To somewhat defeat your overall thesis would point out that OPEC figures released Friday night show that as the US December industrial production was up considerably whilst at the same time OPEC produced the least amount of oil since May 2011 in fact the December output was 20,000 barrels a day down on the November figures, at this stage USD80 for either WTI or TAPIS seem highly unlikely given the way the US is supposedly recovering from the GFC together with the bulk of world economies.








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marketwinner
post Posted: Jan 20 2014, 09:59 AM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Jan 11 2014, 04:19 PM

I can remember when oil was trading over $135pb some analysts including experts predicted it could go to $200pb. If I am correct when airlines were struggling to carry out their business during period of higher oil prices one Airline spokesman in Europe said we can run our airline even if oil goes to $200pb.At that time I became very bearish and oil went down to below $50pb. Many including Airlines hedged their oil when they heard about oil price of $200pb. When oil tumbled below $50pb they had to make huge losses. Later it rebounded to $80pb. In addition there could be volatility in oil market time to time due to different factors. In the mean time both Iran and USA could produce more oil in 2014 and 2015. This time I became bearish on oil in 2013. Lower oil prices is very good for the global economy.Specially it could improve global purchasing power. We could see era of lower oil prices below $100 in 2014 and 2015. My target is $80pb and below.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 
flower
post Posted: Jan 11 2014, 04:19 PM
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WTI on the move upwards again?
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flower
post Posted: Dec 2 2013, 10:53 AM
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Might the US export oil produced from their shale deposits----and if they do--when? And what might the worldwide consequences be?

Seemingly that is not a realistic possibility for the next 20 years, enclosed a link that explains the possible worldwide ramifications of such a major event happening: (source: PWC)


http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=....57155469,d.dGI



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Alethia  
 
flower
post Posted: Nov 25 2013, 09:42 PM
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In Reply To: marketwinner's post @ Nov 25 2013, 07:59 PM

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We may see oil around $80pb next year. Even gold prices may go down further.USD will go to its second stage of bull journey. Both NZD and AUD will have sharp drop against USD from 2014 onwards. This new development is good for world economy. We may see faster recovery from 2015 onwards.

Actually Oil was in bear territory irrespective of Iran nuclear deal or not. Forget about oil


Wild assumptions, forget about oil?

Why? with Tapis within USD15 of post GFC highs, how can we --living in Australia forget about oil prices since Singapore is where we source our domestic oil consumption from.

If your assumption about the USD goes pear shaped, you might find even WTI making new highs.
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marketwinner
post Posted: Nov 25 2013, 07:59 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 25 2013, 12:45 PM

We may see oil around $80pb next year. Even gold prices may go down further.USD will go to its second stage of bull journey. Both NZD and AUD will have sharp drop against USD from 2014 onwards. This new development is good for world economy. We may see faster recovery from 2015 onwards.

Actually Oil was in bear territory irrespective of Iran nuclear deal or not. Forget about oil. There will be some demand for some other commodities and products. It is time to analyse commodities, some companies including some companies in Europe which are going to benefit lot due to this new development. Iran used to import commodities such as black Tea, Poultry products, iron, maize, soya, barley, Rail locomotives, diesel-electric, auto mobiles, lumber, diesel engines and many more. We may see demand for black tea, selected food items, some technology, electronics items and some more products from some developed, frontier and emerging markets.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 


nipper
post Posted: Nov 25 2013, 12:45 PM
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Iran deal may threaten oil countries' economies

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

A global deal to lift sanctions against Iran could unleash a flood of oil on to world markets by next year just as crude output recovers in Libya and Iraq, triggering a slide in prices and a major shake-up of the energy landscape.

The prospect of cheaper oil is a welcome relief for the West, but poses a major threat to Russia and a string of countries that depend on oil revenues to finance their budgets.

The weekend deal in Geneva between Iran and key world powers opens the way for a gradual end to sanctions, provided the new government of Hassan Rohani delivers on pledges to curb its nuclear programme.

The accord should unlock 800,000 barrels a day (b/d) of global supply by next year in a market of 89m, rising over time as the country's ruined oil industry comes back to life. Export curbs will stay in place for another six months, but a planned escalation of curbs will not occur.



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"Cause they told me everybody's got to pay their dues
And I explained that I had overpaid them"
- Rodriguez

"What a deplorable existence I lead in this absurd climate and under what frightful conditions! How boring! How stupid life is! What am I doing here?"
- Rimbaud 1884 (Aden)
 
flower
post Posted: Nov 11 2013, 10:32 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 11 2013, 09:59 AM

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IF you're looking for a bargain, a search among the discount bins in the oil and gas sector might be an idea.

Picking the right buy is easier said than done, of course, but that the oil and gas sector is the place to be sniffing around seems to be the take-home message in the latest client note from Peter Strachan at StockAnalysis


Spot on. But do very careful homework. Management in the oil sector is all important, and in the discount bin look for producers that have no debt, no hedging, and have low production/delivery to refinery costs, say not over USD30pb.



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nipper
post Posted: Nov 11 2013, 09:59 AM
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IF you're looking for a bargain, a search among the discount bins in the oil and gas sector might be an idea.

Picking the right buy is easier said than done, of course, but that the oil and gas sector is the place to be sniffing around seems to be the take-home message in the latest client note from Peter Strachan at StockAnalysis.


It is a top-heavy sector, too. Of the sector's $89.9 billion total market cap, four companies account for $74.8bn. The next 10 big companies take a further $8.8bn out of that total market cap.

Working from the other end, the 60 smallest oilies (43 per cent of the total number) account for just 0.6 per cent of the capitalisation at a combined $530 million.

Sure, there are many on poverty row in the metals sector, too, but oil exploration needs very deep pockets. There are 75 companies holding less than $5m in cash (excluding geared producers). That may seem plenty to those who focus on gold juniors looking for a small open-cut operation, but $5m doesn't go far in the world of hydrocarbons.

As Strachan points out, with oil and gas you are looking at high capital intensity and high levels of exploration risk, much higher than in mining.

"Mining companies don't go out into the bush and spend $100m to drill one hole to test a target while facing odds of nine to one that they will fail," he says.

But hit the right target and you also hit payback. Mining projects typically aim to recover their capital in four to five years, but AWE (AWE) recouped its $US260m spent at the Tui oilfield in New Zealand within four months.

Strachan has another interesting statistic: many companies trade with an enterprise value of less than $5 a barrel of 2P (proven plus probable) reserves while, on average, companies spend $30 a barrel to find and then develop oil projects. Thus investors have opportunities to buy stocks below their book value or net present value.

That, says Strachan, demonstrates a market that is either undervalued, expects the price of oil to fall or has a very healthy aversion to the risks involved.

But what to buy? Now we come to Strachan's latest rundown of the sector with a scattering of bouquets and plenty of brickbats. There's room for just a few.

ADX Energy (ADX), with its offshore project between Tunisia and Italy, is seen as undervalued in terms of prospective resource, with solid technical management but "highly speculative, heavy with stale bulls".

Beach Energy (BPT) is described as a top performer with a solid balance sheet, likely to acquire either Cooper Energy (COE) or Senex (SXY). "Buy and hold for $2 target," he advises.

StockAnalysis also has a buy on Buru Energy (BRU) with the note "stock heavily short-sold: buy for a +$5 value target".

Strachan also likes Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN), which last traded at 7.2c with a large gas target north of Port Hedland, making it a spec buy, but he reckons the company's Thai oil output of just over 500 barrels a day "will never make real money".

Naturally, there are plenty of companies listed as "avoid".

Odyssey Energy (ODY) has been "an odyssey for shareholders, more like a horror movie" while Solimar Energy (SGY) is described as a "leaderless, poorly funded California oil player". A share price of 0.2c "correctly values" Odin Energy (ODN).

The note describes Rampart Energy (RTD) as an "under-funded North Slope Alaska hopeful", however, Edwin Bulseco at DJ Carmichael recently put a spec buy tag on the stock. The junior's acreage is surrounded by majors, with Shell, Exxon Mobil, Conoco-Phillips and Chevron drilling away while Spain's Repsol recently announced three discoveries near RTD's ground.

StockAnalysis has a "wait" on Lonestar Resources (LNR), but Simon Andrew at Hartleys has just sent out a buy recommendation. The latter says LNR remains on track to almost double production in six months driven by an aggressive well program on its three properties on the Eagle Ford shale in Texas.

Lonestar, says Andrew, has been opportunistic in acquiring ground in Wilson County and will look to add hectares when leases expire.



--------------------
"Cause they told me everybody's got to pay their dues
And I explained that I had overpaid them"
- Rodriguez

"What a deplorable existence I lead in this absurd climate and under what frightful conditions! How boring! How stupid life is! What am I doing here?"
- Rimbaud 1884 (Aden)

Said 'Thanks' for this post: flower  
 
marketwinner
post Posted: Oct 22 2013, 05:48 PM
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In Reply To: marketwinner's post @ Oct 18 2013, 06:14 PM

Oil prices may stay $80- $100 in the coming years. Not only USA but also Iran too will increase oil production. Some heavy industries in the USA and Europe should benefit lot and there may investment opportunities in some areas. Global economy will expand from 2015 onward and USD dollar may start their next major rally during next 18 months.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-21/w...piles-gain.html

WTI Oil Trades Below $100 a Second Day as U.S. Stockpiles Gain

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

 
 


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