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OIL, Discussion
Elliott
post Posted: Jul 30 2016, 06:38 PM
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In Reply To: Elliott's post @ Jul 30 2016, 06:52 AM

Yes, BPT waiting to trigger for me too, as is AWE. Only on CTX which bucked the trend on Friday due to results.

Good setups but all need to trigger...a setup doesn't make the money of course.



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My posts are for discussion and educational value only. They are not to be construed as advice in any way.

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cooderman
post Posted: Jul 30 2016, 09:44 AM
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In Reply To: Elliott's post @ Jul 30 2016, 06:52 AM

Hi Elliot, Watching USOUSD on Daily and is a similar setup. Reaching oversold levels and may turn back up next week.

BPT my choice for a trade if it does.

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Elliott
post Posted: Jul 30 2016, 06:52 AM
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In Reply To: wolverine's post @ Jun 29 2016, 09:02 PM

Everybody is turning bearish oil...but, a nice looking H&S reversal pattern on this chart.

I currently hold CTX, and looking for other low risk entries.
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My posts are for discussion and educational value only. They are not to be construed as advice in any way.

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wolverine
post Posted: Jun 29 2016, 09:02 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 19 2016, 11:42 AM

QUOTE
U.S. crude inventories at the highest in more than 80 years


Fark me that is an awesome sound bite.

Also awesomely retarded considering oil demand 80 years ago vs today.



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TOO MANY CHIEFS

NOT ENOUGH INDIANS

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Brierley
post Posted: Jun 29 2016, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 19 2016, 11:42 AM

I recall last Year Ol Gazza called POO going to sub USD20/brl which seemed a bit out there at the time. It did get to USD26 though.

He hasn't changed his tune, as explained in this Bloomberg article dated 28-06-16. Makes some fair points imo.

OIL STILL HEADING TO $10 A BARREL

 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 19 2016, 11:42 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 18 2016, 10:38 AM

hard to pick the oil price direction - many factors feeding in
QUOTE
Oil prices careened wildly on Monday after the collapse of talks aimed at capping production left investors at odds over what factors will dominate trading in the weeks ahead. Prices fell more than 6% in overnight trading, slumping as news emerged that leaders of big oil-producing nations failed to reach a deal to freeze production in Doha, Qatar, on Sunday.

But oil started to rebound in U.S. trading after news of a strike in Kuwait that took more than half of the country's production offline on Sunday. By day's end, oil prices finished down 58 cents, or 1.4%, at $39.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, fell 19 cents, or 0.4%, to $42.91 on ICE Futures Europe after briefly crossing into positive territory.

Hope that producers would freeze output -- and that a deal could eventually lead to more meaningful production cuts -- was the main driver for U.S. oil prices surging as much as 60% from 13-year lows in February. Now that the biggest catalyst is gone, traders say other factors are likely to be slow-moving, making it harder for oil to rally in the short term.

"It's not going to be one big event" that moves oil prices from current levels, said Nick Koutsoftas, a portfolio manager at Cohen & Steers Inc., who helps oversee $558 million in commodity investments. Mr. Koutsoftas expects U.S. oil to trade between $30 and $40 a barrel through year-end.

Many investors expect prices to fall further in the near term. Global inventories of crude oil and refined products stand near record, with U.S. crude inventories at the highest in more than 80 years.

Money managers, including hedge funds, held an unusually large number of bets as of April 12 that U.S. and Brent crude prices would rise, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Without an immediate bullish driver, traders could start to close out those wagers, sending prices lower.

The recent price rally also could spur U.S. producers to increase output. Many companies need to produce as much oil as possible to meet debt payments. With most futures contracts for 2017 and 2018 trading above $45 a barrel, some companies could lock in prices that let them put more drilling rigs to work, analysts say.

Serengeti Asset Management has taken positions that would benefit from lower oil prices, said Leslie Biddle, a partner at the $1.5 billion hedge fund. "By the middle of the summer, we could see some American production coming online," she said.

Others are more bullish, predicting that supply and demand will start to come into balance. U.S. crude output fell from a 44-year peak of 9.7 million barrels a day in April 2015 to 9 million barrels a day in March, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency forecasts output will drop below 8.5 million barrels a day in August.

At the same time, demand is expected to increase as summertime weather spurs drivers to hit the road. The EIA expects U.S. gasoline demand to average 9.3 million barrels a day this year, up from 9.2 million barrels a day in 2015.

"I don't think you need a big bang to save the market," said Greg Sharenow, a portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages $1.5 trillion. "You just need time to pass and output to decay."

If there is widespread consensus, it is that the producers' inability to reach an agreement Sunday doesn't bode well for future cooperation.

"We expected they'd at least be able to organize a photo opportunity and say some nice things about the market," Citigroup analyst Tim Evans said. "The bar was set as low as it could possibly have been set, and they still tripped over it."

Many countries already are producing at full capacity, but the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has about 3.1 million barrels a day of so-called spare capacity, or additional production that could be reached within 90 days, according to the International Energy Agency. Saudi Arabia accounts for about two-thirds of the spare capacity.

In a worst-case scenario for prices, producing nations could increase their output further, analysts said. OPEC countries added about a million barrels a day to their annual production in 2015 as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other nations competed for buyers.

"If this is going to be the starting shot of another price war, we have fireworks ahead," said Jan Stuart, global energy economist at Credit Suisse Group AG. "It all depends on what the Saudis do next."
WSJ

.... "
there is some fundamental support in place for improved oil prices over the long term, as the natural rate of oil well depletion and a lack of new investment should ultimately see curtailed supply. Notwithstanding some disruption from the introduction of Iranian supply, it is entirely feasible that oil market approach some semblance of supply/demand balance over the course of this year. That said, it will be interesting to watch the Saudi reaction to the Doha failure – do they raise production in order to send a signal to Iran? Any weakness in the oil price is likely to see resources give back some of the recent gains – the oil price is often a lead indicator of commodity prices given its importance as an input into most commodity production."




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Apr 18 2016, 10:38 AM
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Despite many of the 18 oil producers believing the meeting in Doha was merely a rubber stamp affair for an oil production freeze, Saudi Arabia managed to throw a spanner in the works. With Saudi Arabia fighting proxy wars with Iran in Yemen and Syria/Iraq, it is understandable that they had little inclination to freeze their own production and make way for newly sanctions-free Iran to increase their market share. Given the fairly clear-cut incentive structure for Saudi Arabia it was surprising that the deal looked like such an inevitable affair.
Saudi Arabia had previously indicated they were happy for a deal without Iran, but deputy crown prince Mohamed bin Salman has publicly driven the change of tone. And the big question is whether this is part of a move to dethrone octogenarian Saudi Arabian oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi. We will see if Al-Naimi is still around for the next OPEC meeting on 2 June.
Commodities are likely to drive the pullback in equities today, with materials and energy stocks in for a difficult session. We will quite likely see credit spreads widen again today, as the oil price has been a major driver for high yield credit.
And the big question is how far we may see the oil price fall today. The key technical level in play is US$38, a break through this level is likely to see a major pullback this week. If hopes of a Doha deal were the only thing driving oil, then a pullback to around the US$30 level seems quite likely.
Read more here.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-liv...l#ixzz468MosIr2
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
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so we gonna keep eye on usd$38.00ish?? unsure.gif




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nipper
post Posted: Apr 14 2016, 04:05 PM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Apr 14 2016, 03:36 PM

QUOTE
Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom hopes reports of a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to freeze oil production are true. Speaking exclusively to the ABC's The Business, Gazprom deputy chairman Alexander Medvedev said he had only heard news reports of the deal between the two governments. He said he knew intense talks were being held ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting this weekend in Doha, Qatar."If it is so and it is not an exaggeration then I believe that it is very important for stabilisation for the oil market," he told the program.

He said prices, at $US30 and $US40 a barrel, were causing significant divestment in the industry that would eventually create major issues for producers and consumers.

"Divestment ... will only lead to skyrocketing prices, which is not in the interests of neither the customer nor for ourselves," Mr Medvedev said. "The risk of deficit is becoming real and if they believe in market forces something should be changed," he said.

Iran will participate in OPEC talks for the first time since the US lifted sanctions on the oil-rich nation. Mr Medvedev suggested Iran would be voting in favour of cutting production. "Russia and Iran has a good potential to co-operate in oil and gas and I believe that Iran will take account of the situation in the world oil market because obviously you could get more money if there is less volume," he said.

Mr Medvedev acknowledged belief in the market that a supply freeze agreement could fail to lift prices. "It could happen because there are some other factors on price formation," he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-13/exte...edvedev/7324842

Gazprom is Russia's second most valuable company, beaten only by fellow energy giant Rozneft, but both have both been under pressure as rising global supplies and decreased demand sent oil prices spiralling down.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Brierley
post Posted: Apr 14 2016, 03:36 PM
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[quote]The recovery in oil prices may soon hit a wall amid a lack of 'game changing' drivers that would push the commodity higher until at least next year and rising doubts about an output freeze deal, Capital Economics says.

Brent crude hit a four-month high of $US44.84 on Wednesday, ahead of a crucial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers this weekend in Qatar.

But overnight the commodity's price retreated 1.1 per cent to $US44.18 a barrel, following a report from Bloomberg that questions had emerged on whether Iran's oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh would attend the meeting. It followed a report by Reuters that Russian oil minister Alexander Novak said while a deal on an output freeze was expected to be signed, its commitments would be vague.

The recent recovery in oil has been one of the factors lifting global equities over the past two months. The MSCI All-Country World Index has risen 12 per cent from its February 11 low when it entered a bear market, defined by a fall of 20 per cent from its most recent high. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was also caught in bear territory in early February, but has since recovered 6 per cent.

Oil prices are now close to Capital Economic's year-end target of $US45 a barrel, but the London-based think tank is not revisiting its target just yet.

"A further recovery in oil prices would surely require outright cuts in global supply and increases in demand, which suggests the next big move up will not take place until next year when the market should be much closer to balance," commodities economist Thomas Pugh said in a research note.

As well as the high expectations of a deal in Doha, a fall in US crude oil inventories a fortnight ago and a drop in the US rig count have helped stabilise oil prices. Falling stocks imply that demand for oil is greater than supply. Oversupply had contributed to oil prices tumbling to 12 year lows in January.

"However, there have not been any game-changers in the fundamentals of the oil market itself," Mr Pugh said.

While US production had started to fall, the declines were small, with output falling by 1.7 per cent year-on-year in February, he said.


Conflicting forecasts
There were also conflicting reports about demand, with OPEC overnight cutting its forecast for oil demand growth in 2016, expecting demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day, 50,000 less than expected. The US Energy Information Administration meanwhile raised its forecast for demand this week.

More concerning for Mr Pugh was that despite the market's heightened expectations, no deal was guaranteed this weekend.

"Saudi Arabia has said that it will not participate in a production freeze unless Iran agrees to join as well and Iran has steadfastly committed to increasing its output to pre-sanctions levels," Mr Pugh said.

"As it happens, we think some sort of compromise agreement is still likely, even without Iran's full participation. But given that very few of the countries attending the meeting on Sunday have either the capacity or intention to increase output anyway, freezing production at the current very high level should at best put a floor under prices."

Major oil producers also believe oil prices are unlikely to drift back below $US30 a barrel. Russian oil company Rosneft's chief Igor Sechin told a conference in Switzerland that the oil price was growing, and "everyone was expecting the successful outcome of our work".

Macquarie Wealth Management too is sceptical of a positive outcome from Doha. Among their concerns, the analysts note that participation in an accord by Libya and Iran is improbable, meaning a full agreement by other members was unlikely.

"Even if all the above complexities can be surpassed, freezing output at January levels would not meaningfully impact OPEC production, which already achieved much of the anticipated growth through January that was expected for 2016," the analysts said.

"From an incentives perspective, there is not a lot of motivation for OPEC to shift their strategy now just as it is proving to work; non-OPEC production is experiencing significant declines in response to the low price environment."

Bell Potter's director of institutional sales and trading, Richard Coppleson, warned the expectations of a deal were riding dangerously high.

"All I can say is that the whole world has so much riding on the OPEC meeting that they had better do something otherwise it'll be a sea of red in markets next week," he said.


Read more: http://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/oil...2#ixzz45mBOmw3i
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
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nipper
post Posted: Mar 28 2016, 05:49 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 17 2016, 05:14 PM

QUOTE
The world's biggest oil companies are draining their petroleum reserves faster than they are replacing them — a symptom of how a deep oil-price decline is reshaping the energy industry's priorities.

In 2015, the seven biggest publicly traded Western energy companies, including Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell, replaced just 75 per cent of the oil and natural gas they pumped, on average, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of company data.

It was the biggest combined drop in inventory that companies have reported in at least a decade.

For Exxon, 2015 marked the first time in more than two decades it didn't fully replace production with new reserves, according to the company. It reported replacing 67 per cent of its 2015 output.

[There has been a shift in] spending away from high-risk, high-reward projects in favour of squeezing more out of fields that are already producing - producers are responding to low prices by pulling back on new exploration in favour of maximising profits. The risk is that cutting back on new projects now, when prices are low, could lead to shortages and price spikes in the future.

Historically, energy companies spent heavily in the present to find resources for the future — new wells that would replace the barrels they pump every day. When they decide they can extract the oil and gas economically, firms book those resources as proved reserves, untapped inventories to be exploited at a profit down the road.

The current oil glut has forced companies to cut spending wherever they can. So they have pulled back on exploratory drilling and spending on new projects. Across the oil sector last year, companies approved just six new developments, according to Morgan Stanley researchers.

That is in contrast to the past decade, when high prices led energy firms to explore in far-flung regions. They spent billions of dollars on so-called megaprojects, in part to keep their inventories brimming for decades. And those investments helped to fuel today's market glut.

Because of accounting rules, there is another drain on the "proved reserves" that companies book and report to investors: low oil prices. The US Securities and Exchange Commission defines proved reserves as the volume of oil and natural gas that a company can expect to tap at a profit....
WSJ



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne

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