OIL, Discussion

[bermuda]

In Reply To: nipper's post @ Feb 14 2013, 08:43 AM

Thanks Nipper,

Peak Oil is alive and well. Just as well we have a lot of gas coming on stream . The world needs it.

Beautiful photos too.

[flower]

In Reply To: nipper's post @ Feb 14 2013, 08:43 AM

37 of 62
Australia
Price per gallon of gasoline: $6.31
Rank by most expensive gas: 36
Rank by pain at the pump: 54

Relying on fossil fuels for electricity is getting more expensive in Australia after the government's tax on carbon dioxide emissions was imposed last year. Wind energy is now cheaper than coal or natural gas for producing electricity, according to a report this month by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

The carbon tax doesn't apply to driving, which means the nation can continue to enjoy its relatively harmless pain-at-the-pump ranking. Australia is the sixth-biggest consumer of gasoline. With an average daily income of $191, the share of a day's wages needed to buy a gallon of gas is 3.3 percent.

[nipper]

slides on highest to lowest of 62 countries for petrol at the pump (= gas in USA) in US$ per US gallon.

http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-02...ry.html#slide37

Australia comes in at #37, for $6.31 per gallon

Unsurprisingly, the OPEC and other large producers are cheapest (Venezuela is absurd @ 6c a gall), USA is mid range at #52 for $3.21 a gallon, and the most expensive are EU countries with Norway and Turkey over $9 a gall.

With global GDP growth set to accelerate in 2H2013 and limited supplies, there is a growing risk of Brent prices spiking to $130/bbl this year, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a report. The developed world has seen a surge in fuel-efficiency in transportation. As baby boomers exit the "prime driver" age band (15-65), oil demand will decline further.

"But global population in the prime driving age band continues to grow strongly due to emerging markets." the report noted. Countries like China still have very low passenger cars per capita ratios compared to advanced nations, and most new car sales will continue to contribute to fleet growth rather than replacement vehicles. Given the supply constraints, Brent crude oil prices will likely have to stay high to adjust demand down.

With non-OPEC oil supply growing by an average of 480 thousand b/d per year over the last decade, there are only two ways to satisfy this level of demand. Either OPEC provides the missing barrels, or rising prices have to force more efficiency and substitution. If OPEC does not expand output, oil prices need to increase and ration out the weakest links in favour of the emerging forces. For instance, the big four economies in the European Union (Germany, France, Italy, and the UK) listed among the world's 10 largest oil consumers in 1995. Today, their spots have been taken by Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and India. "Only Germany remains in the club, though for how long?" the report asks

currently WTI is about $97 a Bbl, Brent is $117 and Tapis is around $123 a Bbl .... so the above 'research' (= opinion) is no real big deal.

[flower]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-11/w...een-rising.html

West Texas Intermediate traded near the highest level in more than a week after the biggest gain since early January. OPEC raised forecasts for the amount of crude it will need to supply this year.

[wren]

The suspense is just too much.Someone has to blab...........the wonder stock ....is..............SUR. On sale today at just 5.8 cents.

[wren]

In Reply To: flower's post @ Feb 11 2013, 02:53 PM

flower,
I do hope that this from you..............."could that possibly be because you listen to the wrong people here on SS?" doesn't imply that the poster should have listened to you!
Your picks....RIA at 38 cents (now 7.5) ,CVN all the way from 70 cents (now 6 cents) etc,etc.

[flower]

In Reply To: triage's post @ Dec 14 2012, 09:04 AM

Here's a short list of major oil and gas discoveries in 2012 (none of which I got even a whiff of let alone a piece of ).

Hi triage, you say you got no whiff of all this, could that possibly be because you listen to the wrong people here on SS?

Right now in Texas is where it is all unfolding, and there is one ASX quoted company that is much involved, its been extensively covered in SS, and many have thanked the respondents---for their negativity

However you choose, for some unkown reason to ignore the stock and it's Fundamentals which basically are:

1. It owns jointly some 17,000 highly prospective oil/gas acres in Texas, loosely named the Woodbine Texas tight oil play.

2. Just recently Halcon resources paid $522m for adjacent ground valuing the general area at USD12,000 per acre (the ASX company owns 17,000 acres.

3. The ASX company's holdings are surrounded by the worlds major oil comapnies--namely
Devon
Gastar
Zaza Energy
Encana
Crimson
EOG Resources
WAC
Chesapeake Energy
Halcon resources
Petromax
etc etc
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The ASX company has actually sold its first oil, and right at this moment is waiting for final flow test results on it's first 7 fracced horizontal and vertical wells.

The ASX company has targetted the following formation in these first seven wells:
Sub Clarksville
Upper Woodbine
Middle Woodbine
Lower Woodbine
Buda- georgetown
Glen Rose
With a total pay thickness of 670 feet.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

The ASX company and its partners may create a play very similiar to the Eagle Ford find, feautured in the London brokers report:

Eagle Ford is potentially the next Bakken. It's one of the most ACTIVE plays in the US right now. And what the majors and juniors are playing with is 7,500 in total acreage, five producing wells, two more wells being drilled, and the potential for 100 wells. This year, oil production has increased to some 300,000 bpd (as of August).

Natural gas is also a major Eagle Ford offering. Last year, it produced 914 million cubic feet of natural gas, though that has dropped slightly for this year.

So far, drilling seems to have had even better results than in Bakken. And there is a great deal of confidence and optimism. Enough so that Marathon Oil is planning to shift its primary focus from Bakken to Eagle Ford and spend one-third of its operating budget there. Right now Marathon is producing around 40,000 net barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day and plans to more than double this next year. It's already doubled production this year (and, incidentally, seen its profits jump 11% in the first quarter).

The biggest producer is EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), putting out about 110,000 boe/day and holding reserves of around 1.6 billion boe.

Analysts think Eagle Ford could end up out-producing the Permian Basin in west Texas—and soon.

[wren]

Suppose everyone knows about this..............

"Mérida, 8th February 2012 (Venezuelanalysis.com) – The Venezuelan government has devaluated the official exchange rate between the Bolivar Fuerte and the US dollar by 32%, from 4.3 BsF to 6.3 BsF to the dollar.

The move was predicted by many economists after speculation on the Bolivar helped drive the value of Venezuela’s currency to a quarter of its official value, with the dollar selling on the black market for around 18 BsF.

The measure will improve the cash flow to the Venezuelan government as state oil company PDVSA will receive more Bolivars for oil sales, and help balance the government’s fiscal deficit, which is around 11% of GDP according to Moody’s Investors Service."

Would think this may not be the greatest for the price of oil.

[triage]

Here's a short list of major oil and gas discoveries in 2012 (none of which I got even a whiff of let alone a piece of ).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/g...-gas-plays-2012

Just goes to show: there are actually oilers out there that have success drilling wells rather than shareholders' wallets.

BHP was late to the party in the US shale sector and Woodside recently made what I think is a really incongruous decision to buy into the Israeli offshore discoveries, and I gather there is a whole bunch of juniors working away in the US.

[triage]

In Reply To: triage's post @ Dec 11 2012, 10:44 AM

Just to tidy up something I said in the previous post. I asserted but without a source reference that:

In fact one of the gripes about the sanctions is that it is actually supporting the regime by keeping oil prices high enough whilst not working well enough to choke off Iran from being still able to sell adequate oil to keep going.

According to this article despite the sanctions Iran remained in the top five of OPEC oil producers as recently as October. So Iran continues to produce lots of hydrocarbons and continues to benefit from the historically high prices on offer.

http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-Eas...-Hurt-Iran.html

It seems to me that they are likely content to keep doing enough to keep giving the Israelis enough reason to keep getting into the US admin's ear to keep persisting with the sanctions. The last thing the Iranians would probably want would be for the price of oil to collapse. Meanwhile a number of Australian gas projects continue to be progressed based on these oil prices so we also benefit from the ongoing theatre.