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OIL, Discussion
cooderman
post Posted: Nov 4 2017, 08:38 AM
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It's a case of don't fight the Bulls at the moment, although some EW traders are calling wave 5 near completion. You would have to
have some respect for their methods, if they are correct.

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cooderman
post Posted: Oct 30 2017, 09:25 AM
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Daily close above April high. Real strong Res. next at 54.60s. A pullback to test the breakout point, wouldn't be a bad thing.

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cooderman
post Posted: Oct 30 2017, 09:15 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 29 2017, 07:27 PM

Not another Frackinginquiry. tongue.gif

 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 29 2017, 07:27 PM
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Yes, a hydrocarbon free world is cost free. There is only upside.

https://frackinginquiry.nt.gov.au/inquiry-reports
QUOTE
The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) described the assessment as "conservative" but said it did highlight potential for "significant" growth for the NT's economy.

"We think the actual reality will be significantly greater than that," director of the NT branch of APPEA Matthew Doman said. "But nonetheless they're very significant job numbers, it'd be a very significant economic boost to the Territory."

Mr Doman said the report also reflected the small geographical footprint fracking would have on the NT. In the Gale scenario, fracking would occupy 475.9 square kilometres of land out of the Territory's 1,421,000 square kilometres.


QUOTE
Opponents of fracking used assessment to argue any potential boost to the Territory's economy would not outweigh environmental and community concerns.

"The report makes it really clear that fracking is no saviour for the Territory's economy," said Naomi Hogan from the lobby group Lock the Gate Alliance. "We're not going to see a big increase in jobs... even if we were going to go full pelt with their best-case scenario for fracking wells. "I think this report asks more questions than it answers but certainly makes clear that [fracking] will not be a jobs or economic saviour for the Territory."




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Oct 29 2017, 06:56 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 29 2017, 06:16 PM

nip

I remember when the boss of NATO a few years ago stated that his organisation had seen sufficient evidence for them to conclude that Uncle Vlad and his spooks had been conducting a concerted campaign to undermine popular support for fracking in Europe. At the time his comments were either ridiculed as paranoid or simply ignored.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/201...oppose-fracking

But if you view those comments from the context of what has been shown the Russians did in US aand French presedential elections, in the brexit referendum and elsewhere like in Ukraine then I reckon we in the West missed an early tell about one of Uncle Vlad's main methods of operation.

I suspect that fracking in Australia other than in Qld is pretty much a lost cause. We now have the ridiculous situation where the popular view in NSW is that there should be no fracking in that state - that is, no development of onshore gas reserves within NSW - but for some reason Qld gas, which is a product of fracking, should be sold to NSW consumers at a discount to domestic market prices.

I engaged in a exchange with one of the activists from the Liverpool Plains anti-fracking movement and when I noted that the Russians have form for muddying the waters with regards gas production his response was that he had been at the centre of that movement from day one and he had not once seen any Russians.

Anyway I've taken my profits and suffered my losses from dabbling in the gas industry on the east coast so I no longer have a dog in that fight.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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nipper
post Posted: Oct 29 2017, 06:16 PM
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span spin spun

QUOTE
A new economic assessment of the impact hydraulic fracking would have on the Northern Territory shows the financial benefit does not warrant a lifting of the current moratorium, a Canberra-based think tank says. Research Director at the Australia Institute think tank, Rod Campbell, said the assessment showed even in the best-case scenario the economic development for the NT was not outstanding.

"It points out... that an unconventional gas industry in the Northern Territory is very uncertain and likely to be quite small," he said. "Economically this is a small marginal potential benefit for potentially significant costs.....
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-28/frac...nk-tank/9096180

or.....

QUOTE
Lifting Labor's fracking ban in the Northern Territory could theoretically boost the local economy by as much as $17.5 billion or $674 million annually in real terms between next year and 2043, and create up to 13,600 jobs over the same period, according to a new study.

The results of some long-awaited economic modelling, commissioned by the Gunner government's independent fracking inquiry and unexpectedly released today, also show that the federal government could expect to receive up to $5.5 billion in extra taxes.

The 230-page report, produced by ACIL Allen Consulting, found the change in real income for the rest of Australia (excluding the NT) from letting the northern gas industry rip could be as high as $12.5 billion from 20182043, accounting for lower gas prices, taxes and other benefits.............
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/m...0008c17859f2d80

at least the latter had a link to the report : https://frackinginquiry.nt.gov.au/inquiry-reports



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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cooderman
post Posted: Oct 27 2017, 09:31 AM
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Spot WTI highest close since April 17th. Res. here, but it may break above. Although divergence on AO 4Hourly and res area may
see it pull back a little.

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nipper
post Posted: Oct 10 2017, 06:00 AM
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QUOTE
Hurricane Harvey, which killed more than 80 people and caused major flooding in Texas this September, is a useful example of just how distorting extreme weather can be to the extraction, and production of, commodities like oil.

"When a disruption like that happens it really shines a light on how complex the process [is] of getting oil to the point where it is diesel or petrol at a service station," says Callum Macpherson, head of Investec's commodities team.

The point with Harvey, which traders, businesses and consumers alike ought to consider, he notes, is that not only did the resultant flooding curtail oil extraction in the US, it also disrupted the refining industry.

"In the US, road transport tends to be dominated by petrol cars. So when they shut down, the price of petrol in the US went crazy." Unable to refine oil, consumers and companies had to rely on inventories of petrol.

"That tends to push up the price of things that come out of refineries," adds Macpherson. Increased pressure on this point of the supply chain means there's minimal capacity left for unrefined oil, so fresh from extraction, it is placed into stores, and its value drops. There's a knock-on effect beyond too.

"It rippled around the world. Because US consumption is quite petrol-focused, it tends to produce an excess [of] what are called middle distillates such as jet fuel and diesel, and these are shipped over to Europe," explains Macpherson.

It's a highly effective trade in by-products from one market for use in another. However, when Harvey hit, and refineries in the US shut down, this flow of distillates stopped. The consequence was a steep rise in jet fuel and diesel prices in Europe.

Refiners on the continent attempted to fill the gap and, while this offset the price rises to some extent, it also increased demand for local Brent crude oil.

"The consequence of the hurricane is that it caused significant changes in the price of different oil-based products relative to one another. Refined products increased in price relative to crude oil, and the price of crude oil - in this case Brent - rose relative to that extracted in the US," says Macpherson..




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
balance
post Posted: Oct 3 2017, 08:24 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Oct 3 2017, 08:19 AM

QUOTE
Dyson making electric vehicles??
That really sucks.


rolleyes.gif Dad jokes reign supreme.



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Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Oct 3 2017, 08:19 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Oct 3 2017, 07:37 AM

Dyson making electric vehicles??
That really sucks.
Mick



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