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China the monster.
jacsar
post Posted: Dec 10 2017, 10:24 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Dec 10 2017, 03:32 PM

Hi triage, were these comments your own or from a particular article? Extremely fascinating comments anyway..cheers

 
triage
post Posted: Dec 10 2017, 03:32 PM
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Before President Xi started pushing the one belt one road initiative I recall talk of China building a "string of pearls" starting in the west Pacific and running across the Indian Ocean to the middle east (where China still gets a large chunk of its oil from). From memory the suggestion was that China would build a series of nodes allowing its military to control some of the most heavily used sea lanes in the world.

My impression is that Donald Trump, intentionally or not, is looking the other way whilst the Chinese complete building their military bases on artifical islands in the South China Sea. Perhaps the deal is that China can have dominance in the South China Sea as long as China gets North Korea under better control (?).

Amazingly, the Chinese have a foothold in Australia, with its control of the port in Darwin (which is also a base for US marines [and we wonder why the Americans were upset with that decision]). They are building a harbour / naval base in west Pakistan. They have already built a military base in Djibouti, at the bottom of the Red Sea (the Americans are also there). And I read some time back that the Chinese had paid for and built an airport in Sri Lanka that meets the requirements for use by Chinese military aircraft. Now they have done a Darwin-like deal for a Sri Lankan port.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-d...chinese-company

As for the spat that Malcolm Turnbull has initiated with China about undue influence in Australian politics, I sort of expect to hear that the Chinese health authorities have suddenly discovered that our milk powder is risky, or that one of our airlines has not been filling out the paperwork correctly. In other words a shot across the bow just to remind us who is in the dominant position.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  indeficit  
 
triage
post Posted: Nov 28 2017, 06:09 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 26 2017, 10:19 AM

Yeah eb, in my (now very dated) experience Beijing actually turns on the Xmas glitter far more impressively than Australian cities, with street deco's etc. They have an advantage of the season of course and for expats the 5 star hotels and northern European embassies bring an authenticity that Channel 7's Christmas Carols show just does not reach.

Moving on, here is a link to a podcast from the gents at macrobusiness in which they talk about how China is travelling and how this will impact Australia and local stocks. Please note that they do have a product to sell and what they say should not be taken as financial advice. It has a stuttering start but they eventually get into it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9ZM5fkes9o



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 26 2017, 10:19 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Nov 25 2017, 06:41 PM

HI triage
they celebrate evreything in china.... from x-mas to chines new year. no matter it's westen style or traditional chines style
as i said " they have twisted mind" atm. devilsmiley.gif

 
triage
post Posted: Nov 25 2017, 06:41 PM
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Hey eb, when do they celebrate April Fool's Day in China? Either that or the South China Morning Post has been taken over by The Betoota Advocate ...

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/art...st-turn-tibetan



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 24 2017, 03:01 PM
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The overnight futures trading has a 18 point loss for the ASX 200.

Other markets were not impacted - commodities held out, especially iron ore which is now trading well above $US67 a tonne.

That puts it up more than 8% in the past two days and over 15% for November so far.

The futures losses will out weight whatever positives flow from the sharp rise this week in iron ore prices. The ASX 200 was flat yesterday at around 5986.

Chinese stockmarkets all fell between 2% and 3% yesterday, and Chinese bond yields jumped for yet another day with the key 10 year rate topping 4% before easing in late trading.

The Metal Bulletin iron ore index price leap 3.9% to $US67.69 a tonne on Thursday after a 4.3% rise on Wednesday (and a sharpish drop on Tuesday!

The rally seems to be a result of the push to control pollution this northern winter in the industrial areas of northern China.

Iron ore imports demand has eased, but not by as much as forecast because result is that mills are using more higher grade, less polluting imported iron ore to maintain output.

Global markets were disrupted by the Thanksgiving holiday in the US and holidays in Japan. Gold eased a touch to around $US1,295 a tonne, but US oil futures jumped to regain the $US58 a barrel level.

Interestingly, the sell off in China failed to have an impact elsewhere (unlike on previous occasions). European markets were mostly firmer as activity indexes showed the eurozone economy is booming.

Last week, five regulators led by the People’s Bank of China (the central bank) unveiled the toughest rules yet designed to curb shadow banking.

The new rules will restrict banks’ ability to buy bonds with borrowed money and to lend to corporate clients through off-balance-sheet channels. The rules will reduce demand for bonds directly and could also hamper economic growth and corporate earnings via tighter credit conditions.

There are also fears the rules could smack speculative activity in the country’s commodity futures markets, which would in turn hit the prices of commodities like gold, copper and iron ore. But there was no impact yesterday.

The CSI 300 index, which tracks the largest companies traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, closed 2.9%, the worst one-day loss since June 2016. The benchmark is still up 24% for the eyar so far.

The startup-heavy ChiNext gauge lost 2.8% while the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a loss of 2.3%.

The Shenzhen Composite, home to manufacturing and tech companies, is now negative territory for 2017, a sharp contrast to the double-digit gains and multiyear or record highs achieved by many Asia markets.
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they said it is bond rout sparked selloff. i reckon there is more to it. some financial policy change after THE "19th meeting"?? unsure.gif . people in the know dumped as much as they could.
heard a lot of complain about Xi, mainly thinks he went too far to the left wins. people start to talk about "10 years culture revolution", "Mo era" eg.....
something really funny to me. don't think chines can go back that era but they have twisted mind atm. devilsmiley.gif




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triage
post Posted: Nov 13 2017, 04:47 PM
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This column in the South China Morning Post says that Donald Trump was humbled on his visit to China. I reckon that is fair comment.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-d...lines-new-world

For a blowhard who back in the safety of the US election process claimed that China had raped the US and boasted about how he was going to sort the Chinese out, he not only went limp when he finally went to China he actually complimented them for taking advantage of the US. What a wuss.

A couple of other pointers of how badly Trump has performed. First up President Xi makes a speech, lauding multilateralism and globalisation, President Trump makes a speech stressing his "America First" "doctrine, reminding everyone how he pulled the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership. So what do the 11 other nations - mainly US allies - do? They announce that they will sign up to a replacement trade agreement, minus of course the USA. Even though China is not a member of the new agreement the other nations chose multilateralism over Trump's preferred bilateralism. Another win for President Xi.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/11...trudeau-no-show

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-po...m=.b90f1cfc62aa

http://www.business-standard.com/article/n...11001294_1.html

Secondly, up till now the US has taken the strategic position of leading and supporting the SE countries that are in dispute with China about the South China Sea. None of the affected nations have a chance in hell of standing up to China, and unless the US is an active backer of those smaller nations then China will have its way without much hassle. So what does Trump do? He announces that the US will no longer be an active participant in this dispute but will step away and instead become a mediator. Another win for China imo.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-of...dispute-n819996

And if Trump thinks that by rolling over for the Chinese on these issues it will mean that they will somehow denuclearise North Korea for him then I am sure they have a bridge for him to buy.

Donald Trump is perhaps too self-centred and delusional to realise he's had his pants pulled down by the Chinese but I suspect President Xi would be totally chuffed by how things went.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 1 2017, 09:23 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 1 2017, 05:26 AM

"I think his first five years have shown that the Xi government has done very well in terms of navigating the economy and improving the quality of life for more Chinese. In theory, some elements of the society may have less rights, but on the other hand I would say the majority of society in China have done very well. I would qualify the Chinese leadership as one of the best leadership teams in the world."
====================

i'm second to this. because it is THE FACT!!
every system has it's both sides. but who improve people's life quality with fast pace that would be the altimate judgement isn't it??!!



 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 1 2017, 05:26 AM
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The Thoughts of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink
QUOTE
"You have had the Party Congress and now we'll see how the Xi government will navigate the economy and reforms over the next five years.

"So, we probably have a period of some uncertainty in China. They're going to do some reforms and generally when you do reforms you see the economy slow down. "If Xi's benevolent it's a good thing, if he's not benevolent it's a bad thing. But I don't see any reason to fear.

"I think his first five years have shown that the Xi government has done very well in terms of navigating the economy and improving the quality of life for more Chinese. In theory, some elements of the society may have less rights, but on the other hand I would say the majority of society in China have done very well. I would qualify the Chinese leadership as one of the best leadership teams in the world."

Read more: http://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/black...3#ixzz4x7E2Osnf



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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triage
post Posted: Oct 31 2017, 07:37 AM
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This Bloomberg article claims that PetroChina is the biggest stock collapse ever, but whilst the journo has time to work out that the losses in dollar bill terms encircle the earth so many times (wtf!) they do not bother to say what the percentage loss has been (seems like it is down about 80%) nor how much of PetroChina is still owned by the Chinese government. Also seems that if you had got in early on PetroChina's H shares, listed in Hong Kong, and avoided the Chinese government cashing out at the top of the market, the Shanghai IPO, then you would still be doing okay.

QUOTE
Ten years after PetroChina peaked on its first day of trading in Shanghai, the state-owned energy producer has lost about $800 billion of market value -- a sum large enough to buy every listed company in Italy, [] ...

In current dollar terms, it’s the world’s biggest-ever wipeout of shareholder wealth. And it may only get worse. If the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg proves right, PetroChina’s Shanghai shares will sink 16 percent to an all-time low in the next 12 months.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...no-end-in-sight



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
 


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