Logo
Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome to ShareScene - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Australia's Sharemarket Community - New Here? Click To Register >

129 Pages (Click to Jump) V  < 1 2 3 4 5 6 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

China the monster.
triage
post Posted: Jun 29 2014, 09:59 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,023
Thanks: 1040


I think it is useful from time to time to step away from the daily flurry and take stock of where things stand.

For instance even the village idiot has caught on to the notion that China has been on a tear for the last three and a half decades, and if one is willing to use straight line extrapolations it is quite possible to conclude that China will become THE dominant force in the world sometime next week. And sure it is indeed possible for that to happen, if not soon than within our children's life-times. But in every single case when a developing nation attempted to transform into a super-power it either stumbled badly, as in the case of the US in the 1890's, 1930's and 1970's, or fell, as in the case of Japan, Germany, the USSR, and Argentina (remember in the 1890's it was Argentina, not the US, that was expected by many to emerge as the dominant force).

Here is an attempt to take stock of China's current position in the world. Basically the author argues that quantitatively but not qualitatively China is already there or thereabouts but that its current structure is such that it may be unable to address its qualitative weaknesses.

QUOTE
This is the dangerous cocktail that many China watchers see gripping the country today. It is a sobering and daunting set of challenges for the people and government of China to tackle. Thus, observers should not blindly assume that China’s future will exhibit the dynamism of the past thirty years, or that its path to global-power status will necessarily continue.


http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-il...ese-power-10739

This article reminds me of one written by a keen China watcher, Gerald Segal, just before his death (from cancer) in 1999. His argument back then was that China was not the really big thing that some in the west were assuming. The fact is that 15 years later China still has not stumbled or fallen but still has not transitioned out of being a regional power.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/554...es-china-matter

I'm not suggesting that either author got it right but both are worth a read imo.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle
 
Barra
post Posted: May 28 2014, 09:00 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 1,540
Thanks: 472


In Reply To: Barra's post @ May 15 2014, 02:22 PM

While the US market climbs to dizzying heights (propelled last night by long lasting goods orders which were negative if not for military spending wacko.gif ) the following bit of news was posted in the WSJ

It feels like nearly everyone is blind to China's impending property market collapse.

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/05...housing-market/

This would be about the 3rd property developer I have heard spilling the beans in recent times.

Jim Chanos predicted this was more or less inevitable back in 2011.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
Barra
post Posted: May 15 2014, 02:22 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 1,540
Thanks: 472


In Reply To: triage's post @ May 9 2014, 08:22 AM

Some interesting insights here from Magellan's CEO about China. They have until recently been bullish on China but are suddenly quite bearish.

http://www.brrmedia.com/event/preview/1s95...fa115e-82570233









 
triage
post Posted: May 9 2014, 08:22 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,023
Thanks: 1040


Here's a couple of interesting bits of info, though neither are likely actionable ones in terms of investing.

First up the amazing increase in big dams in the Communist era: on average one a day is not a tardy effort (if you accept the claim [for instance one way to increase the number of big dams is to change the claimed sizes of lots of smaller dams]).

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...the-day-17.html

Though of course with every dam comes a silt problem. The one near Beijing that Mao famously "helped" build turned out to be totally useless other than as a silt trap. And from memory the initial reason why they thought to build the world's biggest dam, the Three Gorges, was because their previous recent effort to dam that part of the Yangtze had silted up so badly. Silt remains probably the greatest risk to the Three Gorges (that and any seismic activity).

Also the "rice theory". Certainly not an entirely novel concept: the difference in heights betwen northerners and southerners was explained to me many years ago to be due to the difference in diet and a few years ago it was shown that southern Chinese are genetically closer to south east asians than to their northern han cousins. Also in history the northerners apparently used to joke that anyone from south of the Yangtze was a monkey. Of course the northerners do eat rice, but often when they do they have a bowl of it at the end of the meal, not is the core food during the actual meal.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/...40508141743.htm



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle
 
marketwinner
post Posted: Mar 21 2014, 07:07 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 290
Thanks: 13


In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Mar 13 2014, 03:55 PM

China’s stocks went up reporting its biggest gain in four months together with Asian stocks today. Do you think investors are coming back from Russia, Ukraine and other Eastern Europe to Asia? Or is it due to other reasons?

 
Brierley
post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 03:55 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,601
Thanks: 233


In Reply To: wren's post @ Mar 13 2014, 02:49 PM

Ok thx

I heard an interview with Treacy in Feb '14

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-se...ronment-markets

Have to subscribe to hear it in full.

 


wren
post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 02:49 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,689
Thanks: 521


In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Mar 13 2014, 01:50 PM

Hi Brierley,
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/
This is was originally Fuller Money (David Fuller).Been going forever…I subscribed for 15 years or so about 30 years ago . They then supplied weekly Point and Figure Chart books which were done manually and covered many markets.I went to a couple of David's Chart seminars in London:expensive but no B/S with the focus being on Behavioural Psychology as seen through Point and figure Charts.
You can sign up for a free daily email service,which has some interesting stuff however I guess it is really a teaser for the paid up site.This latter is fantastic being full of charts (anything you can think of..I mean that..) together with stuff from smart guys and gals worldwide.
Cheers.


 
Brierley
post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 01:50 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,601
Thanks: 233


In Reply To: wren's post @ Mar 13 2014, 01:28 PM

QUOTE
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.


Hi Wren

Which subscriber area are you referring to ?

 
wren
post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 01:28 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,689
Thanks: 521


Eoin Treacy's view
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

The above report represents a measured medium-term outlook for China’s economy and is probably in line with how the administration sees the situation. However, the short-term outlook is more focused on the fact that an increasing number of troubled trust products are missing coupon payments and investor hopes of receiving their principal are deteriorating. Here is a section from a Bloomberg article with some additional detail:

Jilin Province Trust Co., which missed five interest payments on a trust product it issued to finance mining projects, declined to comment on a sixth payment due yesterday. China had its first onshore bond default last week when Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. failed to make an interest payment and Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co.’s notes were suspended from trading yesterday after it lost money for a second year.

“China’s economic outlook has deteriorated and more bond defaults could be coming, so it’s weighing on the yuan,” said Bruce Yam, a currency strategist at Sun Hung Kai Forex in Hong Kong. “A weaker yuan could help some exporters, especially the small- to medium-sized ones. It will also facilitate meeting China’s growth target this year.”

 
flower
post Posted: Mar 8 2014, 02:45 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,576
Thanks: 1069


What effect will this have on the way we look at China? from overnight Bloomberg.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

""China's onshore bond market experienced its first default as a solar-cell maker failed to pay full interest on its bonds, signaling the government will back off its practice of bailing out companies with bad debt.""

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07/c...d-wsj-says.html



--------------------
Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
 


129 Pages (Click to Jump) V  < 1 2 3 4 5 6 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareScene.com, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING