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China the monster.
Brierley
post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 03:55 PM
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In Reply To: wren's post @ Mar 13 2014, 02:49 PM

Ok thx

I heard an interview with Treacy in Feb '14

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-se...ronment-markets

Have to subscribe to hear it in full.

 
wren
post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 02:49 PM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Mar 13 2014, 01:50 PM

Hi Brierley,
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/
This is was originally Fuller Money (David Fuller).Been going forever…I subscribed for 15 years or so about 30 years ago . They then supplied weekly Point and Figure Chart books which were done manually and covered many markets.I went to a couple of David's Chart seminars in London:expensive but no B/S with the focus being on Behavioural Psychology as seen through Point and figure Charts.
You can sign up for a free daily email service,which has some interesting stuff however I guess it is really a teaser for the paid up site.This latter is fantastic being full of charts (anything you can think of..I mean that..) together with stuff from smart guys and gals worldwide.
Cheers.


 
Brierley
post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 01:50 PM
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In Reply To: wren's post @ Mar 13 2014, 01:28 PM

QUOTE
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.


Hi Wren

Which subscriber area are you referring to ?

 
wren
post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 01:28 PM
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Eoin Treacy's view
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

The above report represents a measured medium-term outlook for China’s economy and is probably in line with how the administration sees the situation. However, the short-term outlook is more focused on the fact that an increasing number of troubled trust products are missing coupon payments and investor hopes of receiving their principal are deteriorating. Here is a section from a Bloomberg article with some additional detail:

Jilin Province Trust Co., which missed five interest payments on a trust product it issued to finance mining projects, declined to comment on a sixth payment due yesterday. China had its first onshore bond default last week when Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. failed to make an interest payment and Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co.’s notes were suspended from trading yesterday after it lost money for a second year.

“China’s economic outlook has deteriorated and more bond defaults could be coming, so it’s weighing on the yuan,” said Bruce Yam, a currency strategist at Sun Hung Kai Forex in Hong Kong. “A weaker yuan could help some exporters, especially the small- to medium-sized ones. It will also facilitate meeting China’s growth target this year.”

 
flower
post Posted: Mar 8 2014, 02:45 PM
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What effect will this have on the way we look at China? from overnight Bloomberg.
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""China's onshore bond market experienced its first default as a solar-cell maker failed to pay full interest on its bonds, signaling the government will back off its practice of bailing out companies with bad debt.""

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07/c...d-wsj-says.html



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
wren
post Posted: Mar 3 2014, 07:31 PM
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From the BBC.....
<h1 class="header" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;">China's factory activity contracting</h1>Last updated 6 hours ago

China's manufacturing industry is a key indicator of the economy's healthChina's manufacturing sector contracted in February, according to a new report.

The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures activity in smaller factories, fell to 48.5 in February from 49.5 in January - with Chinese New Year a possible factor.

China's official PMI, which was released on Saturday and measures activity in big factories, fell to an eight-month low in February of 50.2 from 50.5 in January.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Manufacturing is a key driver of China's growth, but the data may have been affected by the Chinese New Year when many factories were shut and workers went home in late January and early February.

Expectations for the official PMI survey were for a reading of 50.1, while the HSBC reading came in as expected, marking the third straight monthly decline and a seven-month low.

"Signs are becoming clear the risks to GDP growth are tilting to the downside," Hongbin Qu, chief economist for China at HSBC, said in a statement.

"This calls for policy fine-tuning measures to stabilise market expectations and steady the pace of growth in the coming quarters."

The index that measures new orders in big factories fell 0.4 percentage points to 50.5.

The employment sub-index in the HSBC survey also fell for a fourth straight month to to 47.2 - its lowest level since early 2009.

The employment index is one of few that measures the job market on the Chinese mainland.

Despite the disappointing official PMI numbers, economists in China remained reasonably upbeat about the economic outlook .

"Judging from market demand and production in some industries, we expect economic growth to remain steady in the future," said Zhang Liqun, an economist at China's Development Research Centre, which helps compile the official PMI data.

China's annual National People's Congress, which begins on Wednesday, should see an official economic growth target announced for 2014.

Premier Li Keqiang is expected to stick with a target of 7.5% growth for this year.

In 2013, official data showed that China's economy grew by 7.7%, though many question these official numbers.

BBC © 2014

 


Brierley
post Posted: Mar 3 2014, 04:57 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Feb 20 2014, 04:30 PM

QUOTE
Here is a link to the BBC documentary about China I mentioned on the market future thread the other day. It was first broadcast in the UK only a day or so ago but is up on youtube already (here in Oz we cannot watch it on the BBC website).

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/02/ho...oled-the-world/



Hi T

Interesting Vid

I note one expert reckons there's an average 15% oversupply of residential property in China,

and another suggests China's property boom now, is about where the West was in 2005/6 sadsmiley02.gif

 
flower
post Posted: Feb 20 2014, 06:18 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Feb 20 2014, 04:30 PM

QUOTE
should the investment splurge hit the wall


For heavens sake how many more years do we have to listen to this tired old phrase? Why erect so many Chinese walls of worry?

The rest of the world would be overjoyed in having a steady 3% annual growth, let alone what China has been achieving all these years----- in spite of the doomsayers, forget it, move on and enjoy the ASX profits China is providing.



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
triage
post Posted: Feb 20 2014, 04:30 PM
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Here is a link to the BBC documentary about China I mentioned on the market future thread the other day. It was first broadcast in the UK only a day or so ago but is up on youtube already (here in Oz we cannot watch it on the BBC website).

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/02/ho...oled-the-world/

Fair enough reporting I'd say except that the presenter possibly is mistaken in suggesting that in aggregate Chinese consumers will be adversely affected should the investment splurge hit the wall. As Michael Pettis routinely argues, even if investment actually contracts it probably means that consumption, both as a % of GDP and in absolute terms, will pick up (an economy is a mix of consumption, investment and net exports and if one bit goes down then the other bits will naturely go up).



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Brierley  
 
arty
post Posted: Jan 31 2014, 02:29 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Jan 31 2014, 02:05 PM

I read somewhere it was even 2 weeks.
maybe that included travel times back to work. And it'll take some time to crank up the machinery and furnaces.
They'll be back in their own good time to start horsing around in the new Year of the Horse.



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
 


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