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China the monster.
early birds
post Posted: Feb 25 2018, 09:40 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/25/china-sets-...definitely.html

China's ruling Communist Party on Sunday set the stage for President Xi Jinping to stay in office indefinitely, with a proposal to remove a constitutional clause limiting presidential service to just two terms in office.

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no wander people talked about " similar to Mao era ",
even though china is need a visionary leader now, and Xi seems did a lot of good thing to clean up corruption culture in china
but "two terms constitutional clause" should be kept. it's the way to avoid imbalance power of individuals ---
most of chinese people suffered ones that what Mao era{ culture revolution} badly.
hope Xi { ones a sufferer himself} can see this then stick with the constitution and turn down the offer, even he did good job to steer china on right path so far,,,,,,
man, what a world we living in now, weirdsmiley.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 23 2018, 10:35 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Feb 23 2018, 07:30 PM

assuring those who lent the company money that their money is good
======================
no. it isn't chinese govt's intention


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assuring all those who had insurance policies through the company that they are still covered.
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this is purpose of chinese govt.

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to me what they try to do is really similar to what the US Fed did with AIG during GFC.
my take is they are really serious this time----to crack down over leveraging .




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triage
post Posted: Feb 23 2018, 07:30 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 23 2018, 06:03 PM

So what I can work out Anbang was not so much a ponzi scheme as a classic case of duration mismatch: it was borrowing on the short term by offering high yields and it was investing in relative low yield long term assets such as hotel buildings. It seems to me that what the Chinese government did was act as backstop for Anbang to stop a run on it, assuring those who lent the company money that their money is good and assuring all those who had insurance policies through the company that they are still covered. The authorities have stated that they intend to fix the company's balance sheet and then return it to private hands, possibly within a year.

It seems to me that this is pretty much what the Australian government promises to do under its explicit bank deposit guarantee (?). In isolation if Anbang was a one-off this action by the Chinese authorities is prudent and stabilising. The trouble is there is never just one cockroach and the question is how many other Chinese financial entities have similar exposure.

Here is Shenzhen based academic, Christopher Balding, from a couple of days ago mulling about deleveraging in China.

http://www.baldingsworld.com/2018/02/20/is...ging-revisited/



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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early birds
post Posted: Feb 23 2018, 06:03 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Feb 22 2018, 04:29 PM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...anbang-takeover

If you needed confirmation about China’s determination to rein in surging corporate debt, the dramatic government takeover of Anbang Insurance Group Co. is pretty much it.

The unprecedented seizure of a private insurer underscores President Xi Jinping’s policy drive to cut back on the debt-fueled excesses that have accompanied China’s growth miracle. It’s a direct hit to corporate binge spending that authorities want to stem; it energizes a long running anti-corruption campaign; and it demonstrates that short-term economic pain will be tolerated for the longer-term goal of a more sustainable expansion.
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chinese govt. seems serious about it this time. looks my mate is right about it this time. blush.gif




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triage
post Posted: Feb 22 2018, 04:29 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 21 2018, 10:40 AM

Back to eb's comment that the Chinese government is starting to tighten money supply Zerohedge has this piece that claims that as a result of tightening of shadow banking some Chinese listed companies are having to suspend trade in their stocks.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-21/c...an-margin-calls

Yeah I know it's Zerohedge but for every 99 things they distort, overhype or simply make up every so often they are onto a big topic earlier and more accurately than just about anywhere else. Much of the info about China's mini-recession in 2015 that I posted on ss came from ZH and only ZH. Hardly anyone else was even talking about it at the time (but now it seems a given that yes in 2015 China went a bit close to the edge).

What has happened in the past that if things started to get the wobbles the Chinese government backed off until it settled down. But sooner or later China just has to address the oceans of easy money that is distorting their economy.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
triage
post Posted: Feb 21 2018, 11:06 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 21 2018, 10:40 AM

eb - I feel your pain mate.

Hey with his maths and physics your son should have a look at medical engineering. Someone mentioned to me that the ANU has a 5 year bachelors degree in medical engineering, I don't know any details but the ANU has a kick-arse reputation, you would think that medical engineering offers lots of career opportunities, and Canberra is less than 4 hours by bus or train from the Sydney CBD. Anyway I hope your son finds something that gets his juices flowing.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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henrietta
post Posted: Feb 21 2018, 11:04 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 20 2018, 08:08 PM

Hi EB
I can understand your frustration and your son's disappointment. Do go to the university and talk to them about other pathways to medicine, because there are alternative ways. Also look at other possible universities ...... UQ has an excellent programme and reputation.
It's really hard to take such disappointment after years of very hard work and high achievement, but you really have to move on and find another way.
My sons had their fair share of hardships and disappointments, but completed their chosen courses eventually and have become fine successful adults.
" Kick the cat ", throw a tantrum or two, but then get on with your life , and keep your son thinking positively about his future. He'll get there with your help.

Cheers
J


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early birds
post Posted: Feb 21 2018, 10:40 AM
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In Reply To: balance's post @ Feb 21 2018, 06:32 AM

I assume they still do interviews with prospective students, also a pre-entry exam? Was that an issue
==============
hi B
now you talking.

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I will say it is extremely competitive and the top uni's here can be very, very selective about who they take
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that is the way how they pick their student, not how high your HSC and ATAR mark is. i had prop info that someone had HSC , ATAR lower than my boy, and they got in because their race
i had mate who is works in the hospital who told me the true story about it. i'm not gonna "preach" anymore here. i only told you guy the facts.

for triage
my boy can go to qeensland uni for medicine or take the "gameset" few years later if he is so keen to be a doc. i tried hard to raise a so called banana {yellow skin with white inside}
but all my effort been destroyed by this event.
he said to me and my wife " they don't like me to be doc?? , i don't gives a f%$^&, i don't want to be doc anymore, affing these white supremacy dumb ass"!!
all these years i try to tell him " don't judge people by their race".
now i just saw a good sol been destroyed in front of my eye.
oh, about james ruse---------------it is a top selective school that is head and shoulder above all other schools for academic , they are No1 for HSC last 15---20 years, only school in sydney that no other kids bring in the drugs or other bad stuff.

ps, i'm so sorry to express my anger at this board. we suppose talk investment info here , not those BS i preach about. blame triage whom opened up a can of warns....... ohmy.gif

back to chinese economy
chinese Govt, is start tightening money supply , and they really doing it this time so as other central banks around world, so raise bit of cash isn't a bad thing imho.




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balance
post Posted: Feb 21 2018, 06:32 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 20 2018, 08:08 PM

Hi EB,

I don't believe for a moment it is about ethnicity or his school. James Ruse is known as the top selective school here, no problems. There are so many ethnic Chinese uni students studying medicine and other top professions.

I will say it is extremely competitive and the top uni's here can be very, very selective about who they take. There are also large numbers of overseas students who pay full fees. They prop up uni funding and I'm sure do get certain preferential treatment given the full fee status.

I assume they still do interviews with prospective students, also a pre-entry exam? Was that an issue?

In the end there are other universities and other methods of entry if he remains interested.



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Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

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triage
post Posted: Feb 20 2018, 10:04 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 20 2018, 08:08 PM

eb - that's really disappointing for your son after the fantastic HSC result he got. I don't know the NSW system but surely your son would not have been knocked back on his ethnicity (?). Is James Ruse a selective (?) school, I thought that they do much better than the private schools anyway? Could he apply to do medicine at other unis? Anyway with maths and physics scores like that I am sure he will make a success of just about anything he decides to take on. And maybe he could transfer across into medicine later on if he was still keen (?).

But I know it rips your guts when things don't quite fall into place for your children. Life rarely goes to plan though I suppose.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
 


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