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China the monster.
Brierley
post Posted: Jan 7 2014, 02:21 PM
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5 Ways To Profit From A China Downturn In 2014

Summary
QUOTE
- There are many signs that China’s economy is in serious trouble.

- The signs include still booming credit growth but lower output growth, softening inflation, spiking inter-bank rates indicating stresses in the financial system, as well as large corporate defaults and bankruptcies.

- These things combined have increased the odds of a more severe China economic downturn this year.

- The best ways to bet on a China crash include shorting the following: Australian banks, China property stocks, the Chinese yuan and iron ore miners such as Fortescue Metals.


Full article
http://asiaconf.com/2014/01/05/betting-aga...-china-in-2014/

 
Brierley
post Posted: Nov 27 2013, 12:11 PM
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QUOTE
Why Chinese People Buy So Many Homes in Palo Alto


http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2...lo-alto/281234/

This is the case in Sydney CBD too, I'm told.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: stezz  early birds  
 
flower
post Posted: Nov 20 2013, 02:04 PM
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Clip from Bloomberg BusinessWeek:
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People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan wrote, “We will increase the role of market exchange rates, and the central bank will basically exit from normal foreign-exchange market intervention.” Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/BloombergChina’s central bank will “basically” end normal intervention in the currency market and broaden the yuan’s daily trading limit, Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, without giving a timeframe.

The daily range will be widened in an “orderly way” as China seeks to enhance the currency’s two-way flexibility, Zhou wrote in an article in a guidebook explaining reforms outlined last week following a Communist Party meeting. The nation will phase out investment caps for both domestic and foreign investors, he added. A ceiling on deposit rates offered by local banks will be gradually removed as well, PBOC Deputy Governor Yi Gang wrote in the book.

“We will increase the role of market exchange rates, and the central bank will basically exit from normal foreign-exchange market intervention,” Zhou wrote. The central bank will “establish a managed floating exchange-rate system based upon market supply and demand,” he added





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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
arty
post Posted: Nov 15 2013, 02:21 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Nov 15 2013, 01:56 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMhB_jticKE

has English subtitles; the aria in question starts at 1:13 biggrin.gif devilsmiley.gif



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
arty
post Posted: Nov 15 2013, 01:56 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 15 2013, 01:14 PM

"La Donna e mobile" apparently not only applies to Italian opera divas, but to Chinese dames as well tongue.gif
Quick to change their minds, aren't they?

Attached File  Shanghai_pm_15_11_13.gif ( 16.77K ) Number of downloads: 6




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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

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early birds
post Posted: Nov 15 2013, 01:14 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 14 2013, 02:03 PM

most of the dama is giving up with that shity market!! so sentiment is really bearish at moment!
========================

that freaking nut market ---------went up big time so far. kinda feel much better now than last few days! tongue.gif

i'm gonna hold it!



 


early birds
post Posted: Nov 14 2013, 02:03 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Nov 14 2013, 01:08 PM

it is really disappoint for me so far, i still hold my big chunk of it. they blame on anything from "the meeting results" to index option expiry this week{ tomorrow}

to me, i just don't see the logical of it performed so poorly as their valuation so low at this point for many big blue chip --esp 5 big banks!
i start to have doubt in myself's research ability. but still think shanghai market will shine.
but my 2400 prediction before year end -----seems will be a dumb call!! sad for me as i bet it big time! weirdsmiley.gif

most of the dama is giving up with that shity market!! so sentiment is really bearish at moment!




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arty
post Posted: Nov 14 2013, 01:08 PM
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Back to the Market, especially Shanghai Composite:

Attached File  Shanghai_n_14_11_13.gif ( 19.2K ) Number of downloads: 5

What do you reckon, eb? Will Da-Ma come around to liking the new 10-years Plan?
The initial reaction was, perhaps understandably, a sell-off; initiated by those who may have wished for more leeway and easy money. But today's candle suggests support and a possible trend reversal. Is there anything "at ground level" that would support this potentially improved sentiment?



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Oct 29 2013, 02:10 PM
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Hi Arty,

could not agree more. Sadly and I mean this it brings me no pleasure, I have been pulling apart numbers for months now and its worse than 2007 and on a scale that is not able even for me to comprehend.

I will get there, its more about the USA ... not Australia or the EU we both have very different fiscal problems and monetary policies to the USA. The scope of how far they have gone this time is sadly scaring me. I will share it because, I think its important.

Australian equities 30% below the US 40% below the UK in relative terms, I suppose we are going to be like 2000 and NASDAQ crash where we went sideways even up a little.

I do think this one, well. I am going to get it out there as fast as I can. Each can decide. I was annoyed in 2007 and mentioned you never ever play with some things. In 2013, scratching the surface, sadly I am ... well ... to be honest totally scared to death with what I am finding. Surely someone must have noticed ? I think they have and we have a whole bunch of people I respect sitting either not fully invested or out and the bulls laughing at them not to put too fine a point on it and I believe they are correct, the bears. What they have not been able to quantify is the scope of what is being done.

Anyhow few more hours on one part.

Second part ... might sit on for a while. Time for a book :}



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
arty
post Posted: Oct 29 2013, 01:17 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Oct 29 2013, 12:31 PM

It's an age-old strategy: If you have domestic problems, look abroad and direct your people's attention to the outside.
In the past, it's been military adventures masking internal problems:
France in 1812
Germany in 1939,
Greece and Turkey in 1974
Argentina in 1982

Even now, it helps to have a "Big Stick" that everybody is aware of; but it's easier and less costly (than e.g. the invasion of Iraq) to use the Financial Press to divert attention.
QUOTE
Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye.




--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

Said 'Thanks' for this post: kahuna1  
 
 


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