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China the monster.
flower
post Posted: Jan 31 2014, 02:05 PM
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China is closed tonight, and for most of next week for their Lunar Holiday.



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
triage
post Posted: Jan 27 2014, 05:09 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jan 27 2014, 12:33 PM

Well apparently the story about the PBOC restricting cashflows was a beat-up and Forbes have withdrawn the piece in which the original claim was made. blush.gif

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-27/f...mpletely-fooled

I am fairly sure that Zerohedge ran with the original story with all its usual hyperventilating but now they are making out that all along they were too clever to be sucked in and had offered some words of caution. Maybe. Me, I was suckered ball and all (but in fairness I did indicate that it was likely simply an operational glitch rather than something more ominous [or am I just trying to cover my backside here????]). (h/t footy on hc).






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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle

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triage
post Posted: Jan 27 2014, 12:33 PM
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Here is an odd-ball bit of news: as China runs into the Lunar New Year holidays - starting this Friday - it appears to be running short of cash.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...f9-5c46638c0915

I agree that for the authorities to close down the system for maintenance at the busiest time of the year is about as believable as Rafa coming up injured every time he gets behind in a match ( wink.gif conspiracies all around). (h/t Katoom on hc). More likely is that all those migrant workers are cashing up for their trips back to the village.

This comes just after HSBC attempted to restrict largish withdrawals of cash from accounts with the bank (they've since backed away)...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25861717

(Of course HSBC is a British bank, not Chinese, but it does have significant exposure to China).

And with some reports that the first batch of defaults are happening in the Chinese shadow banking sector...

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/01/ho...-bank-defaults/

All this of course is ZeroHedge territory but in all probability is an operational hick-up rather than suggestive of a systemic failure unfolding. But do I need to remind you that when complex systems are in a critical state it does not take a boulder to be dislodged to trigger an avalanche; a grain of sand is the usual culprit.






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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle

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Barra
post Posted: Jan 23 2014, 02:09 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Jan 23 2014, 01:19 PM

The HSBC flash PMI figure was sub 50 and indicates a slowdown is underway in China - or at least this is what the wires are saying.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/...EA0M04420140123

Futures look to be saying we might have seen a top and there could be a bit of heavy selling ahead. JMO



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arty
post Posted: Jan 23 2014, 01:19 PM
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Both Hong Kong and Shanghai are heavily sold off.
Does Da Ma need cash to celebrate the New Year?

eb, can you tell us how long the holiday will last? When will Markets reopen?
Attached File(s)
Attached File  HangSeng_n_23_01_14.gif ( 21.5K ) Number of downloads: 6
Attached File  Shanghai_23_01_14.gif ( 19.34K ) Number of downloads: 6

 




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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
arty
post Posted: Jan 23 2014, 11:48 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 23 2014, 10:49 AM

Keep your head up, Mate
Your day will come, I'm sure. Just go with the flow, but don't try and make sense of the market moves.

Since I've stopped asking "WHY?" and only traded what the charts tell me, I've done a lot better.
The next holiday is already booked - and mostly paid for smile.gif



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Nick1970  early birds  
 


early birds
post Posted: Jan 23 2014, 10:49 AM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Jan 22 2014, 12:43 PM

hi arty
i still siting on my big bet with A50 witch is at loss atm. lost my trading stake{ stoped out when it break below 7000} but hold on the loss of my longer term core holding.
have to watch my margin as A50 dropped way faster that shanghai index due to their banks sell down. really caught me by surprise as why they sell their major stock like mad{ all 4 major bank traded under their assets backing} kinda reminds me those shity days when people sell CITI BAC at US market years ago at under assets backing price...... unsure.gif

my only focus is shanghai market atm, so don't have other big interests. hope you do well budy! i'm a strugler at moment!



 
arty
post Posted: Jan 22 2014, 12:43 PM
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Has Shanghai finally found support???
Shanghai Composite does look a lot happier. Place your bets - the Year of the Horse is coming rolleyes.gif
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Shanghai_n_22_01_14.gif ( 19.48K ) Number of downloads: 7

 




--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
marketwinner
post Posted: Jan 7 2014, 03:46 PM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Jan 7 2014, 02:21 PM

My main concern in China is higher property prices. Just like other countries they also could have some bad period. Still investment opportunities could be there. Last couple of years we heard so many negative comments on UK and Japan. Still these markets gave some of the best returns to intelligent investors. I am slightly bullish on China and investors could have some moderate return from stocks in 2014. I am bullish on Chinese tea, poultry, meat, education, health sector and selected technology there.

Some of the options are:

Target the next most promising sectors in China
Avoid AUD, NZD and go long on USD
In good time and bad time people cannot postpone eating and drinking- Their consumer staples sector will outperform in good and bad times.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 
Brierley
post Posted: Jan 7 2014, 02:21 PM
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5 Ways To Profit From A China Downturn In 2014

Summary
QUOTE
- There are many signs that China’s economy is in serious trouble.

- The signs include still booming credit growth but lower output growth, softening inflation, spiking inter-bank rates indicating stresses in the financial system, as well as large corporate defaults and bankruptcies.

- These things combined have increased the odds of a more severe China economic downturn this year.

- The best ways to bet on a China crash include shorting the following: Australian banks, China property stocks, the Chinese yuan and iron ore miners such as Fortescue Metals.


Full article
http://asiaconf.com/2014/01/05/betting-aga...-china-in-2014/

 
 


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