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China the monster.
post Posted: May 28 2014, 09:00 AM
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In Reply To: Barra's post @ May 15 2014, 02:22 PM

While the US market climbs to dizzying heights (propelled last night by long lasting goods orders which were negative if not for military spending wacko.gif ) the following bit of news was posted in the WSJ

It feels like nearly everyone is blind to China's impending property market collapse.


This would be about the 3rd property developer I have heard spilling the beans in recent times.

Jim Chanos predicted this was more or less inevitable back in 2011.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
post Posted: May 15 2014, 02:22 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ May 9 2014, 08:22 AM

Some interesting insights here from Magellan's CEO about China. They have until recently been bullish on China but are suddenly quite bearish.


post Posted: May 9 2014, 08:22 AM
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Here's a couple of interesting bits of info, though neither are likely actionable ones in terms of investing.

First up the amazing increase in big dams in the Communist era: on average one a day is not a tardy effort (if you accept the claim [for instance one way to increase the number of big dams is to change the claimed sizes of lots of smaller dams]).


Though of course with every dam comes a silt problem. The one near Beijing that Mao famously "helped" build turned out to be totally useless other than as a silt trap. And from memory the initial reason why they thought to build the world's biggest dam, the Three Gorges, was because their previous recent effort to dam that part of the Yangtze had silted up so badly. Silt remains probably the greatest risk to the Three Gorges (that and any seismic activity).

Also the "rice theory". Certainly not an entirely novel concept: the difference in heights betwen northerners and southerners was explained to me many years ago to be due to the difference in diet and a few years ago it was shown that southern Chinese are genetically closer to south east asians than to their northern han cousins. Also in history the northerners apparently used to joke that anyone from south of the Yangtze was a monkey. Of course the northerners do eat rice, but often when they do they have a bowl of it at the end of the meal, not is the core food during the actual meal.


"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle
post Posted: Mar 21 2014, 07:07 PM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Mar 13 2014, 03:55 PM

China’s stocks went up reporting its biggest gain in four months together with Asian stocks today. Do you think investors are coming back from Russia, Ukraine and other Eastern Europe to Asia? Or is it due to other reasons?

post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 03:55 PM
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In Reply To: wren's post @ Mar 13 2014, 02:49 PM

Ok thx

I heard an interview with Treacy in Feb '14


Have to subscribe to hear it in full.

post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 02:49 PM
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In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Mar 13 2014, 01:50 PM

Hi Brierley,
This is was originally Fuller Money (David Fuller).Been going forever…I subscribed for 15 years or so about 30 years ago . They then supplied weekly Point and Figure Chart books which were done manually and covered many markets.I went to a couple of David's Chart seminars in London:expensive but no B/S with the focus being on Behavioural Psychology as seen through Point and figure Charts.
You can sign up for a free daily email service,which has some interesting stuff however I guess it is really a teaser for the paid up site.This latter is fantastic being full of charts (anything you can think of..I mean that..) together with stuff from smart guys and gals worldwide.


post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 01:50 PM
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In Reply To: wren's post @ Mar 13 2014, 01:28 PM

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Hi Wren

Which subscriber area are you referring to ?

post Posted: Mar 13 2014, 01:28 PM
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Eoin Treacy's view
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

The above report represents a measured medium-term outlook for China’s economy and is probably in line with how the administration sees the situation. However, the short-term outlook is more focused on the fact that an increasing number of troubled trust products are missing coupon payments and investor hopes of receiving their principal are deteriorating. Here is a section from a Bloomberg article with some additional detail:

Jilin Province Trust Co., which missed five interest payments on a trust product it issued to finance mining projects, declined to comment on a sixth payment due yesterday. China had its first onshore bond default last week when Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. failed to make an interest payment and Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co.’s notes were suspended from trading yesterday after it lost money for a second year.

“China’s economic outlook has deteriorated and more bond defaults could be coming, so it’s weighing on the yuan,” said Bruce Yam, a currency strategist at Sun Hung Kai Forex in Hong Kong. “A weaker yuan could help some exporters, especially the small- to medium-sized ones. It will also facilitate meeting China’s growth target this year.”

post Posted: Mar 8 2014, 02:45 PM
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What effect will this have on the way we look at China? from overnight Bloomberg.

""China's onshore bond market experienced its first default as a solar-cell maker failed to pay full interest on its bonds, signaling the government will back off its practice of bailing out companies with bad debt.""


Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
post Posted: Mar 3 2014, 07:31 PM
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From the BBC.....
<h1 class="header" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;">China's factory activity contracting</h1>Last updated 6 hours ago

China's manufacturing industry is a key indicator of the economy's healthChina's manufacturing sector contracted in February, according to a new report.

The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures activity in smaller factories, fell to 48.5 in February from 49.5 in January - with Chinese New Year a possible factor.

China's official PMI, which was released on Saturday and measures activity in big factories, fell to an eight-month low in February of 50.2 from 50.5 in January.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Manufacturing is a key driver of China's growth, but the data may have been affected by the Chinese New Year when many factories were shut and workers went home in late January and early February.

Expectations for the official PMI survey were for a reading of 50.1, while the HSBC reading came in as expected, marking the third straight monthly decline and a seven-month low.

"Signs are becoming clear the risks to GDP growth are tilting to the downside," Hongbin Qu, chief economist for China at HSBC, said in a statement.

"This calls for policy fine-tuning measures to stabilise market expectations and steady the pace of growth in the coming quarters."

The index that measures new orders in big factories fell 0.4 percentage points to 50.5.

The employment sub-index in the HSBC survey also fell for a fourth straight month to to 47.2 - its lowest level since early 2009.

The employment index is one of few that measures the job market on the Chinese mainland.

Despite the disappointing official PMI numbers, economists in China remained reasonably upbeat about the economic outlook .

"Judging from market demand and production in some industries, we expect economic growth to remain steady in the future," said Zhang Liqun, an economist at China's Development Research Centre, which helps compile the official PMI data.

China's annual National People's Congress, which begins on Wednesday, should see an official economic growth target announced for 2014.

Premier Li Keqiang is expected to stick with a target of 7.5% growth for this year.

In 2013, official data showed that China's economy grew by 7.7%, though many question these official numbers.

BBC © 2014


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