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China the monster.
triage
post Posted: Nov 22 2016, 11:09 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 22 2016, 10:32 AM

eb

Little emperors mate. I know there are lots of spoilt kids here in Australia but the mainlanders have taken it to a whole new level.

You ever been to Harbin eb? Talk about hard doers. I've been there a few times - did the ice festival one time and went there for work as well - and my experience of some of the locals is that they would piss on you and then set you on fire (met some really decent people too of course but the general attitude was the meanest I encountered in my travels around China).

Had one of the worst meals ever whilst in Harbin. Any obvious Russian influence had been largely wiped away but for the novelty we decided to have a meal in a "Russian" restuarant there. Pretty quickly it became obvious that it was still a state run operation: for a fair while we could not get any of the waiters to serve us even though they were standing around or walking past gawking and sniggering at us. As an entree about the only available option was toast and jam (but even that was inedible), we tried the soup (which was also crap and took forever to arrive) and in the end we left and went somewhere else. Maybe they assumed the waiguoren was a laomaozi.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 22 2016, 10:32 AM
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https://au.news.yahoo.com/video/watch/33277...partment/#page1

An ungrateful man was filmed beating up an older couple on the streets of China after they bought him an apartment that was deemed "too small".

The incident took place outside of a real estate office in Harbin, capital of Heilongjiang, China’s north east.

It is believed the couple were the man's parents and had given their son the unit as a wedding present and was deemed "too small", The Shanghaiist reported.
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seems chinese need build more apartment , otherwise the oldies will be beat up! WTF.. weirdsmiley.gif
want to hear my take?? that old couple deserve it, because they fail to educate the trash or even spoilt him after bring him to this world....


 
triage
post Posted: Nov 20 2016, 07:42 AM
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Here's a link to the most recent article by James Fallows on China.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archiv...rticle-comments

I'm not sure whether the article is pregnant with waffle or with nuance, either way the writer makes no attempt to hide the complexity and uncertainty of how things may develop or should be handled.

And he makes little attempt to factor in how the new US admin will approach its relationship with China. His only reference to Mr Trump is this line: "When Donald Trump was asked in October how the U.S. should respond to various Chinese excesses, he said that if 'we cut off [the economic] relationship with China, China would go bust so fast.'" The writer's lack of attention to the specifics of a Trump administration is probably fair enough because we will not know what approach Mr Trump will take until he takes it. My view is that Mr Trump is a salesman, nothing more, nothing less, and he will say whatever he has to to close the deal at hand. He could have been selling aluminium sidings or encyclopedias or blocks of goanna country in SE Qld, it just happens that most recently he was sprouting his speil to become POTUS. My guess though is that Trump is a bluffer and a brinkman, and will not be attracted to the cautious tentative approach that Mr Fallows seems to be advocating.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 14 2016, 08:50 AM
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Will China’s Financial Bust Ever Come?
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-china-banking/
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little bit of balance analysis.

 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 20 2016, 05:54 PM
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in a trend that is becoming more apparent (and hardly unanticipated):
QUOTE
Shoppers in the world's second-largest economy are becoming increasingly well heeled and sophisticated: instant coffee is giving way to the fresh variety, boutique beers are growing in popularity and mainstream beauty products are losing their shine in favor of more expensive gloss. At the same time, sales of instant noodles are in decline.

Separate reports from Morgan Stanley and London based market research company Mintel Group Ltd. point to the potential growth of discretionary spending in China.

It's an important shift for the economy. As traditional growth drivers such as heavy industry and exports lose steam, consumption is filling some of the gap. Gross domestic product rose 6.7 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, paced by services, which expanded 7.6 percent in the year to date. Retail sales jumped 10.7 percent in September from a year earlier. Consumption contributed 71 percent of GDP growth year to date, according to an estimate by Citigroup Inc....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-are-trading-up

QUOTE
China's thirst for Australian wine is proving equally as strong. China has for the first time become Australia's No. 1 wine export destination, with a 51 per cent jump in shipments in the last 12 months taking the Asian nation past the USA as our most valuable export market.

It was only six months ago that China surpassed the UK to be Australia's second biggest wine export destination, as a major shift in economies and consumer trends saw downbeat Europeans slow the pace of their spend on wine, especially Australian brands, while the fast-growing and affluent Asian middle class poured more of their wages into the finer things in life.

Timed almost perfectly, Australia's most famous and luxurious wine brand Penfolds has today released its latest vintage — including Grange — to fans of the label all over the world. Asia is yet again expected to soak up as many as bottles as winemaker Treasury Wine Estates has allocated the region.

It comes as Australian wine exports' double-digit growth continued in the 12 months to 30 September, 2016 according to Wine Australia's Export Report. From October 2015 to September 2016, the value of exports grew by 10 per cent to a total value of $2.17 billion, according to Wine Australia, with growth again being primarily driven by bottled exports, particularly at higher price points.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/c...06021ea8e8b855b

QUOTE
Such is the twin power of Chinese TV soap operas and the popularity of western-style foods, that when an actress on one of China's most popular shows grabbed a box of Weet-Bix as she sat down for breakfast it sent sales in Australia's most popular cereal through the roof. Much like the insatiable demand for infant milk formula and vitamins, Weet-Bix has become the hot new commodity as 'daigou', or Chinese professional shoppers, strip Australian supermarket shelves of cereal boxes with some of their China-based clients prepared to pay as much as $50 a box for Weet-Bix.

It has made China the single biggest export market for Weet-Bix, with the company's owner Sanitarium on Tuesday launching its next stage of expansion in the region. New branding aims to hook even more Chinese who are turning away from traditional hot breakfasts to more healthy and western-style meals like cereal.

"We featured in a TV show called "Ode to Joy'' up there in China, and sales moved significantly for us from about April onwards. We have had around a 50 per cent increase in sales from there and we should do another 50 per cent this year,'' Sanitarium Australia general manager Todd Saunders told The Australian. The packet of Weet-Bix didn't appear by chance, of course, on the table of one of the show's key characters. It was a paid placement, and when the female character chided her male friend for asking for a traditional Chinese breakfast meal like dumpling soup, by saying "I never eat things like that," she instantly conveyed the sophistication and western values of the humble brick of Weet-Bix.

On sale in China for eight years, Sanitarium will now relabel its cereal as "Nutri-Brex'' in China to help it stand out from other cereal brands and build on the momentum from consumers opting for healthy foods, especially those sourced from Australia which is prized for its 'clean and green' credentials.

"What we have identified over the last few months is the need for us to have some 'white space' to pursue our long-term expansion into China, as we compete with products that sound very similar to us in China, namely Weetabix,'' Mr Saunders said. "So we now have a distinctive brand asset, Nutri-Brex. It's a name that we have researched with the Chinese people and it researches well, and we are today launching Nutri-Brex in Sydney with an actress from the Ode to Joy show. "She is helping launching that product with us and making it clear to the Chinese consumer that what is in the box is exactly the same as what would be in a Weet-Bix box here in Australia.''
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/c...b362d65bad40161



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 3 2016, 10:18 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Sep 21 2016, 05:29 PM

China; we got monstered

QUOTE
It was chaos at Sydney's Town Hall on Saturday as more than 5000 "daigou" or Chinese personal shoppers clambered for vitamins, UGG boots, cosmetics and milk powder to send to family and friends back in China.

The occasion was the second China eCommerce Expo in Sydney at the start of "Golden Week", when Chinese travellers take a week-long holiday commemorating the founding of the People's Republic of China.

Students, housewives, young professionals and grandmothers were grabbing samples and products from a2Milk and Dairy Farmers, medical company Capitol Health, cosmetic firm Dr LeWinn's and even insect repellent group Aerogard.

The expo, organised by well-known Chinese company "eCommerce China", was aimed at match-making Australian retailers to Chinese daigous and while it wasn't a direct selling event, many daigous placed orders with exhibiting Australian brands including UGG boots and Comvita while marketing their products instantly on Chinese social media WeChat.....


&

Goldenweek. Photograph shows queue to get into the 2016 China Commerce Expo at Sydney Town Hall, Saturday 1st October 2016. The queue went underneath the staircase then around and back up to George Street






--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne
 


triage
post Posted: Sep 21 2016, 05:29 PM
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Here is an Aljazeera video that appears to be from late last week (so it should be based on relatively current circumstances).

It is a familiar story well told: more ghost cities, more company defaults, more workers being screwed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGHmk4UeK_w

(h/t to Young Ok at macrobusiness).

Actually the likes of Hugh Hendry were putting out stories with almost exactly the same story lines three or four years ago. And in the interim China appears to have continued powering onwards and upwards. Either the chaps at Aljazeera are very late to what is a stale and falsely premised story or their timing is far better than the other gloom merchants.

And here is another example of China's stock standard response to malinvestment and too much easy credit: double down.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37415771

Now is a perfect opportunity for China to close some of its more inefficient steel producers but instead they have arranged for a larger, more financially secure steel producer to effectively bail out a failing operator. That would be fine if Baosteel went through and closed down all the unprofitable operations owned by Wuhan Steel but the Chinese leadership has a track record for throwing good money after bad (their KPI's are all about size and growth, not profit and stability). Yet another example of the Chinese having the scatological version of the midas touch.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 3 2016, 04:28 PM
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Success In Curbing Chinese Capital Outflows Spells Disaster For High End NY/SF Real Estate

www.zerohedge.com ....based on a Bloomberg article


Increased scrutiny of transfers overseas -- Some Shanghai banks have recently asked their outlets to closely check whether individuals sent money abroad by breaking up foreign-currency purchases into smaller transactions and to take punitive action if violations were discovered, according to people familiar with the matter. Each person can send $50,000 abroad annually and so large sums can be transferred by utilizing the bank accounts and quotas of a range of individuals, a tactic known as smurfing.

Curbing the offshore supply of yuan to make shorting costlier -- The PBOC told some onshore lenders to stop offering cross-border financing to offshore counterparts late last year, and on Jan. 11 advised some Chinese banks’ units in Hong Kong to suspend offshore yuan lending unless necessary. It’s also widened the scope of reserve requirements to include some yuan holdings of overseas financial institutions.

Restricting companies’ foreign-exchange purchases -- Companies can only buy overseas currencies a maximum five days before they make actual payments for goods, having previously been free to make their own decisions on timing.

Suspension of foreign banks -- DBS Group Holdings Ltd. and Standard Chartered Plc were among overseas banks suspended from conducting some foreign-exchange business in China until the end of March. The bans included the settlement of offshore clients’ yuan transactions in the onshore market and was introduced as a widening gap between the currency’s exchange rates in Shanghai and Hong Kong encouraged arbitrage trades.

Outbound investment quotas frozen -- China has suspended new applications under the Renminbi Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor program, which allows yuan from the mainland to be used to buy offshore securities denominated in the currency. It has also refrained from granting new quotas for residents to invest in overseas markets via its Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor program since March.

Delaying the Shenzhen stocks link -- China originally planned to start a link between the Shenzhen market and the Hong Kong bourse last year, but the plan was delayed amid a mainland equities rout.

UnionPay debit-card clampdown -- New measures were introduced in December to crack down on illegal China UnionPay Co. card machines, which were suspected of being used to channel funds offshore via fake transactions, most notably in Macau casinos.
Underground banking clampdown -- China busted the nation’s biggest "underground bank," which handled 410 billion yuan ($62 billion) of illegal foreign-exchange transactions, the official People’s Daily reported in November. The Shanghai branch of the SAFE said last week that it will crack down on illegal currency transactions, including underground banking



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 9 2016, 08:44 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jun 8 2016, 10:48 AM

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...n-election-race

While she says she’s concerned her children find it hard to gain full-time employment and is against Chinese purchases of agricultural land, she’s happy the travelers flocking to the area have helped her secure a job.
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i guess everyone love to have "it" both ways, but in reality it has rarely happen. wink.gif


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The most important thing was Xi Jinping came here so we knew it was a reliable place,” said Zhang, who is from Guangzhou{ what a bushit a...} dry.gif
if she would like to stay in Tasmania after she completes her studies, Zhang shakes her head. “There’s not many good jobs in Tasmania. It needs to develop.”{ now she tell the truth, i had holiday months ago at Tassie really quiet there compare to Sydney, but that is the way Tassie love to live isn't it??}




Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 8 2016, 10:48 AM
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Here is a meaty essay that attempts to outline the core Chinese position on international matters and what the American response should be.

http://scholars-stage.blogspot.com.au/2016...-based.html?m=1

I don't know anything about the author, he seems to be simply an enthusiastic amateur but there may well be more to him than that, and I think he is far too USA, USA for me. For instance his claim that "I do not exaggerate when I say Goldman Sachs created modern China." is utter tosh: the Europeans, Japanese and Taiwanese and even some Australians were heavily active in China way before the Americans got serious and of course almost all of modern China is a product of the Chinese themselves.

But I have been impressed with John McCain's thinking for a long time and again going on the excerpt in that blogentry I think he was talking sense regarding China. I also think that the essay's writer is correct in pointing out that the Chinese have already decided not to abide by the rule based order.

(h/t macrobusiness)






--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  nipper  Alethia  
 
 


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