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Gold, Discussion
flower
post Posted: Mar 26 2015, 10:58 AM
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POG still has to beat USD1200, the enclosed from the web to day may be of interest, it concerns gold imports to India this month.

POG right now USD1194/AUD1525

btw: The threat of an increased gold tax in WA has been removed--for 2015, according to press reports yesterday.
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""The latest gold trade suggests that the country may witness record imports of gold during the month of March this year. As per preliminary data, the imports during the month have already crossed 130 tonnes during the initial three weeks of March this year. Estimates suggest that monthly gold imports may well exceed 150 tonnes during the month.

The projected imports during March this year are alarmingly high when compared with the recent past. The country's gold imports were limited to nearly 39 tonnes in January this year. The imports jumped higher to almost 50 tonnes in February. However, March '15 preliminary import data suggests three-fold jump in gold imports during the third month of the year. The daily trade data for the month of March also indicates that gold shipments to India from Ghana have gained significant momentum during the month.

The sudden surge in gold imports is mainly attributed to the increased procurement of the metal ahead of the upcoming festive season demand. Moreover, the government had recently relaxed certain norms on gold imports, thus making it easier for importers to secure gold. The fall in gold prices too spawned new life to gold shipments into the country.

Industry sources indicate that the rising gold demand in India may continue to lend support to gold in shorter term. In the run-up to the budget, gold imports had remained muted. The purchases by local traders which were deferred in anticipation of favorable duty cut announcement in the budget have also started to pick up.

Meantime, new gold schemes such as gold deposits and gold sovereign bonds are less likely to affect the country's gold imports immediately, as it may take more time for the government to formulate final structure of these plans.""



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
flower
post Posted: Mar 25 2015, 11:11 AM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Mar 19 2015, 02:12 PM

QUOTE
POG looking promising. POG right now USD1172/AUD1515.

Before taking action it may be wise to see how markets handle the fact that US rates are now unlikely to rise any time soon, especially watching trading over the next two US sessions.

Watch the USD Index carefully, has it topped ----on the FOMC outcome?


Everything going to plan, USD Index weakening, SP500 showing signs of topping, as the POG approaches the next major hurdle USD1200. Thursday US time sees a COMEX option expiry, very likely the shorts will do everything they can to keep the POG below that level on expiration.

Once USD1200 broken is should be off to the races for the POG.

2 Charts enclosed.

Selected ASX gold producers performing well.

Right now POG: USD1189/AUD1510.
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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
flower
post Posted: Mar 19 2015, 02:12 PM
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POG looking promising. POG right now USD1172/AUD1515.

Before taking action it may be wise to see how markets handle the fact that US rates are now unlikely to rise any time soon, especially watching trading over the next two US sessions.

Watch the USD Index carefully, has it topped ----on the FOMC outcome?
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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
eshmun
post Posted: Mar 18 2015, 02:43 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Mar 18 2015, 01:34 PM

Flower,

In my opinion the bottom is set by what is held in the large gold ETF funds. On the 12th of April 2013 the manipulators where able to prise the rocks open of the fist magma chamber of the gold ETF's by massive raids of short selling in the futures market. This ended one of the greatest stock market bull runs in history, the 13 year bull market in gold and gold stocks. The manipulators opened the cracks in the magna chamber just wide enough to cause a catastrophic and explosive release of pressure that sent gold prices crashing, as people all over the world hit the sell button on their computers, laptops and palm devices. The crash only stopped when the upper magma chamber was completely emptied and the hard rock of lower magma chamber beneath had been reached. The lower magma chamber is held by investors that aren't as readily spooked and are in effect longer run believers in gold as a store of wealth. The manipulators can try and prize open the cracks in the lower chamber but they will need a bigger lever than US$764 million they used in their first raid on the 12th of April 2013. If the investors who hold the lower chamber firm were to let go, the manipulators would be able to push the price of gold to significantly lower extremes. It would then much depend on which investors let go and how big their holdings were. As mentioned in a previous post without the existence of speculators and without the piggy backing of the two gold derivative markets, one on the back of the other, the manipulators wouldn't be able to ply their ugly trade. I personally think it will be easier for the manipulators to just run their ugly trades in reverse again (as they have been doing for nearly 2 years now) and catch all the people holding stale short positions out yet another time. That would be less risky than having to stump up the $1Trillion or so that would be needed for an attempt on the lower magma chamber of the gold ETF funds.

Eshmun




 
flower
post Posted: Mar 18 2015, 01:34 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Mar 15 2015, 02:41 PM

QUOTE
If history rhymes this week, bought about by a subtle rewording of the post FOMC meeting statement, the POG may now be putting in that anticipated low--for this move.

To make that low, POG needs to drop another USD20.

It's bizarre that the financial world waits for the inclusion or exclusion of just one word--"patience", is that what Central Banking has been reduced to?

POG right now: USD1150. AUD1508.
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flower
post Posted: Mar 15 2015, 02:41 PM
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Ahead of the FOMC meeting Tuesday/Wednesday this week the POG has reached critical support positions in both daily and weekly format.

Apparently the commercial net short position is near enough exactly what it was in early November 2014 when the POG dropped USD100 in one session, before rallying hard, (USD1130-USD1300). POG now: USD1158/AUD1516

ie: If history rhymes this week, bought about by a subtle rewording of the post FOMC meeting statement, the POG may now be putting in that anticipated low--for this move.

2 charts, POG daily and weekly.
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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 


jacsar
post Posted: Mar 14 2015, 11:43 AM
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In Reply To: eBear's post @ Mar 14 2015, 09:32 AM

I find the last 2 paragraphs of that link... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-12/n...s-gold-strategy .. of key importance as Deutsche bank has vacated its seat the London Bullion market... https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold...ation-112720141 and HSBC has just closed it's 7 vaults in London, it appears that the days of rigging are over and the London Bullion market will capitulate to the desires of Shanghai gold exchange.

 
flower
post Posted: Mar 14 2015, 10:44 AM
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From Reuters overnight:
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* U.S. dollar index hits 12-year high

* SPDR gold fund sees more outflows (Recasts; adds comment, updates prices)

By Marcy Nicholson and Clara Denina

NEW YORK/LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - Gold pared early gains on Friday, on track to break a nine-day streak lower despite the dollar's extended rally as the precious metal market appeared reluctant to extend losses ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week.

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,154.35 an ounce at 2:23 p.m. EDT (1823 GMT), in technically oversold territory on the 14-day relative strength index at 25.6.

U.S. gold for April delivery settled up 50 cents at $1,152.40 an ounce.

The metal was headed for its sixth weekly loss in the past seven, down 1 percent so far and having hit its lowest in more than three months at $1,147.10 on Wednesday.

"It's almost like it's confused. It looks like it's trying to find itself," said Teddy Sloup, senior market strategist for iiTrader in Chicago.

Gold has taken a beating since a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week stoked speculation the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates soon. The next focus will be the Fed's policy-setting committee meeting on March 17-18.

"Gold is holding just above this key area of $1,150, but there is more downside risk as the dollar could continue its ascent ahead of next week's Fed meeting, especially as it is so close to parity level with the euro," Saxo Bank head of strategy Ole Hansen said.

The dollar hit its highest in nearly 12 years on Friday and is widely expected to reach parity with the euro, due to the gap between U.S. and European interest rates.

A stronger dollar would continue to cloud the outlook for gold, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher interest rates usually dent demand for assets that do not pay interest such as bullion.

In a reflection of bearish sentiment, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.28 percent on Thursday to 750.95 tonnes, the lowest since January. It had been three weeks since the fund saw any inflows.

Other precious metals have also taken a hit. Silver, which was on track for a second straight weekly fall, was down 0.3 percent at $15.52 an ounce, while palladium was heading for its worst week since mid-January. Prices were up 0.1 percent at $789 an ounce on Friday.

Platinum was flat at $1,111 an ounce, having fallen to its lowest since 2009 at $1,108.50 on Thursday. (Additional reporting by A. Ananthalakshmi in Singapore; Editing by Pravin Char, David Evans and Meredith Mazzilli)





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eBear
post Posted: Mar 14 2015, 09:32 AM
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QUOTE

The New London Gold Fix And China's Gold Strategy



This month the physical gold market will undergo radical change when the four London fixing banks hand over the twice-daily fix to the International Commodity Exchange's trading platform on 20th March.

From 1st April the Financial Conduct Authority will extend its powers from regulating the participants to regulating the fix as well. This will transfer price control away from the bullion banks allowing direct access to the fixing process for all direct participants and sponsored clients.

From this flow two important consequences. Firstly, the London market is changing from an unregulated to a partially regulated market, reducing room for price manipulation. And secondly, the major Chinese state-owned banks, assuming they register as direct participants, have the opportunity to dominate the London physical market without having to deal through one of the current fixing banks. No announcement has been made yet as to who the direct participants will be, but it is a racing certainty China will be represented..................


..... China now has the opportunity to take a dominant role in London, without having to direct its order flows through the fixing banks. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that from 20th March, China will be able to control the global physical gold market, which will permit her to manage the price. She has the deepest pockets, backed by the largest single stockpile. .......


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-12/n...s-gold-strategy




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eshmun
post Posted: Mar 11 2015, 03:57 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Mar 11 2015, 02:48 PM

I didn't say I was a major shareholder. I said I have built up considerable equity in the company.

I am not planning to sell for at lest 5 years and that depends on them not being able to add to mine reserves/resources. The conversion ratio is about 80% so it is normally a reliable conversion. Given recent brown field exploration successes the probability of the joint venture not being able to add to its existing resources is probably a bad assumption. We will have to wait and see.

As I said if you are sacred by the low liquidity this is not a stock for you, but to describe the volume as pitiful I find a bit insulting given I was only trying to support you on this gold thread and give you my view on a company. I personally believe it has very solid and durable bones and it has treated me well so far.

As I said the company is presently buying back shares and is governed by ASX listing rules for on market buy backs. Liquidating a large position in a hurry could be difficult so that's why I warned you about that in my original post. I can't understand your defensiveness. It seems to be common with holders of NST stock. Maybe it is a nervousness based on the current uncertainty in their growth strategies, I don't know Time will only tell. I'm not advocating that anyone buys any RND/TBR. It makes no difference to me, I am not a seller. In fact I buy a few from time to time when I get frustrated looking for other opportunities in the current market.

Eshmun






 
 


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