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Gold, Discussion
flower
post Posted: Yesterday, 01:28 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 10 2014, 12:50 PM

Gold took a beating overnight as the bears waded in, what prompted that raid isn't clear, may have had something to to do with what Janet Yellen did NOT say at her first appearance of the week.

However tonight she addresses The Economic Club of New York @ 12.15 ET when her subject is "Monetry Policy"--so one can be relatively certain what she does say tonight will move markets, espdecially the gold markets since the three forward months slipped deeper into backwardation overnight.

Tuesday's intraday chart of spot gold enclosed.
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flower
post Posted: Apr 10 2014, 12:50 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 9 2014, 01:03 PM

QUOTE
Spot gold having broken the 200DMA resistance point may now press on to the USD1330 area.


Situation looks good for gold bulls, possibly one more moving average to beat--the 20DMA @ USD1315 which is where the POG sits right now.
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flower
post Posted: Apr 9 2014, 01:03 PM
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Comex gold remains firmly stuck in 1 month backwardation, tonight we get the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, that may prove to be another POG catalyst.

Spot gold having broken the 200DMA resistance point may now press on to the USD1330 area.

Main overnight POG influence was the falling USD. USD Index used as illustration.
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flower
post Posted: Apr 8 2014, 06:54 PM
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Comex gold chart, courtesy Kitco.com. Spot right now: USD1310,AUD1403. (dd April 7th)
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cooderman
post Posted: Apr 8 2014, 04:00 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 8 2014, 03:30 PM

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Don't think the POG influenced by war talk at all


Tell that to all the traders who scalped Gold and Silver on a quick trade on that news

 
flower
post Posted: Apr 8 2014, 03:30 PM
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In Reply To: cooderman's post @ Apr 8 2014, 03:17 PM

Don't think the POG influenced by war talk at all, the Fundamental cause of any rise and hold above USD1300 would much more likely to be due to a plummeting US stock market, whilst the POG remains in paper backwardation ensuring it should not drop in price as long as that backwardation exists.
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cooderman
post Posted: Apr 8 2014, 03:17 PM
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QUOTE
UKRAINIAN INTERIOR MINISTER SAYS ANTI-TERRORIST OPERATION UNDER WAY IN EASTERN CITY OF KHARKIV, ABOUT 70 "SEPARATISTS" ARRESTED


QUOTE
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY CALLS ON KIEV TO IMMEDIATELY HALT ANY MILITARY PREPARATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE THAT COULD LEAD TO CIVIL WAR


certainly helped the Gold price and gold shares

 
flower
post Posted: Apr 6 2014, 07:17 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Apr 6 2014, 02:45 PM

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flower, you seem to be arguing that backwardation implies a rising pog.


arty, my understanding of Backwardation is that it implies tightness in the spot market where settlement actually takes place. Think you will find that if you checked that when gold is in backwardation the POG of spot gold rises, was certainly the case on Friday night, in fact on Friday night apparently the I month forward contracts move even further into backwardation at the close, this in spite of the USD16 rose in the spot POG.

If you look back to the period February 5th to February 23rd this year, exactly todays situation existed and the consequence was a rise of about USD80 in the spot POG during the session.

Methinks we are about to test the validity of history, nothing like watch it unfold in real time rolleyes.gif



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wren
post Posted: Apr 6 2014, 06:45 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Apr 6 2014, 02:45 PM

WRT backwardation,it was pointed out in a post a couple of months ago,that such a 'situation' may persist for years.Why are these foolish myths repeated?

 
arty
post Posted: Apr 6 2014, 02:45 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 6 2014, 02:21 PM

QUOTE
3. One month futures slipped further into backwardation

flower, you seem to be arguing that backwardation implies a rising pog.
Such an expectation is sharply at odds with accepted economic theory, to avoid the term "science" in this rather speculative area.
Check this exposť by Princeton University: https://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wik...kwardation.html

Surely, if the yield curve is inverted, which is the definition of backwardation, the yield (=value) goes down as time progresses.
Or as Investopedia explains it in http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/backwardation.asp
QUOTE
an individual in the short position would benefit the most by delivering as late as possible




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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
 


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