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Gold, Discussion
wren
post Posted: Yesterday, 04:52 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Yesterday, 04:48 PM

I'm with you arty.Sold DRM at break even today.

 
arty
post Posted: Yesterday, 04:48 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Yesterday, 03:29 PM

QUOTE
[...]spot gold in USD makes a large upwards move sometime very soon. Chart gives no hint of this though.

... which just MIGHT have its reason in your "unconventional" interpretation of backwardation.

see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_backwardation
QUOTE
Normal backwardation, also sometimes called backwardation, is the market condition wherein the price of a forward or futures contract is trading below the expected spot price at contract maturity.[1] The resulting futures or forward curve would typically be downward sloping (i.e. "inverted"), since contracts for further dates would typically trade at even lower prices.[2] In practice, the expected future spot price is unknown, and the term "backwardation" may be used to refer to "positive basis", which occurs when the current spot price exceeds the price of the future.[3]:22 The opposite market condition to normal backwardation is known as contango. Similarly, in practice the term may be used to refer to "negative basis" where the current spot price is below the future price.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_backwa...s.26Fantasies-3




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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
flower
post Posted: Yesterday, 03:29 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 16 2014, 01:28 PM

QUOTE
especially the gold markets since the three forward months slipped deeper into backwardation overnight.


Over the Easter break the forwards slipped even further into backwardation, some think as far out as six months, which means extreme tightness in the spot market, so as London gets set to re open do not be surprised if spot gold in USD makes a large upwards move sometime very soon.

Chart gives no hint of this though.
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flower
post Posted: Apr 16 2014, 01:28 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 10 2014, 12:50 PM

Gold took a beating overnight as the bears waded in, what prompted that raid isn't clear, may have had something to to do with what Janet Yellen did NOT say at her first appearance of the week.

However tonight she addresses The Economic Club of New York @ 12.15 ET when her subject is "Monetry Policy"--so one can be relatively certain what she does say tonight will move markets, espdecially the gold markets since the three forward months slipped deeper into backwardation overnight.

Tuesday's intraday chart of spot gold enclosed.
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flower
post Posted: Apr 10 2014, 12:50 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 9 2014, 01:03 PM

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Spot gold having broken the 200DMA resistance point may now press on to the USD1330 area.


Situation looks good for gold bulls, possibly one more moving average to beat--the 20DMA @ USD1315 which is where the POG sits right now.
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flower
post Posted: Apr 9 2014, 01:03 PM
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Comex gold remains firmly stuck in 1 month backwardation, tonight we get the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, that may prove to be another POG catalyst.

Spot gold having broken the 200DMA resistance point may now press on to the USD1330 area.

Main overnight POG influence was the falling USD. USD Index used as illustration.
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flower
post Posted: Apr 8 2014, 06:54 PM
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Comex gold chart, courtesy Kitco.com. Spot right now: USD1310,AUD1403. (dd April 7th)
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cooderman
post Posted: Apr 8 2014, 04:00 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 8 2014, 03:30 PM

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Don't think the POG influenced by war talk at all


Tell that to all the traders who scalped Gold and Silver on a quick trade on that news

 
flower
post Posted: Apr 8 2014, 03:30 PM
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In Reply To: cooderman's post @ Apr 8 2014, 03:17 PM

Don't think the POG influenced by war talk at all, the Fundamental cause of any rise and hold above USD1300 would much more likely to be due to a plummeting US stock market, whilst the POG remains in paper backwardation ensuring it should not drop in price as long as that backwardation exists.
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cooderman
post Posted: Apr 8 2014, 03:17 PM
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QUOTE
UKRAINIAN INTERIOR MINISTER SAYS ANTI-TERRORIST OPERATION UNDER WAY IN EASTERN CITY OF KHARKIV, ABOUT 70 "SEPARATISTS" ARRESTED


QUOTE
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY CALLS ON KIEV TO IMMEDIATELY HALT ANY MILITARY PREPARATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE THAT COULD LEAD TO CIVIL WAR


certainly helped the Gold price and gold shares

 
 


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