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Gold, Discussion
flower
post Posted: Yesterday, 02:29 PM
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The USD Index shows signs of topping out ahead of tomorrow morning's (our time) FOMC outcome, as a consequence spot gold in may have bottomed for this move, if she backtracks/delays about raising US interest rates, we may be at the start of the seasonal NH rise in the POG.
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flower
post Posted: Sep 12 2014, 06:51 PM
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In Reply To: Mookie's post @ Sep 12 2014, 05:35 PM

QUOTE
3% for a month's trade on average is a nice return


However Mookie---most of us are highly unlikely to be trading gold bullion!

What if--however--one had been trading NST for 4 months (tracking the USD POG) during late 2111 and early 2012?

In the case of gold bullion you made around 12% profit in total, but trading NST over the same timeframe you made virtually 100% profit rolleyes.gif
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lgrif
post Posted: Sep 12 2014, 06:28 PM
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In Reply To: lgrif's post @ Sep 12 2014, 06:25 PM

Darn, I did it again. Come on NBN

 
lgrif
post Posted: Sep 12 2014, 06:25 PM
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In Reply To: Mookie's post @ Sep 12 2014, 03:18 PM

Mookie, I'm giving this round to you.

 
lgrif
post Posted: Sep 12 2014, 06:25 PM
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In Reply To: Mookie's post @ Sep 12 2014, 03:18 PM

Mookie, I'm giving this round to you.

 
lgrif
post Posted: Sep 12 2014, 06:25 PM
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In Reply To: Mookie's post @ Sep 12 2014, 03:18 PM

Mookie, I'm giving this round to you.

 


wren
post Posted: Sep 12 2014, 05:54 PM
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In Reply To: Mookie's post @ Sep 12 2014, 05:35 PM

Yep 3% per month would do me! However the trader wouldn't know whether this particular Sept. is the one likely to give the 3%.I suppose this is my point.The difference between 3% and -2% is quite small when one looks at a 20 year average.There will/must be plenty of septembers when the rise is greater or less than 3%.
I guess it is rather similar to the Stock Market.On any given day there is a very,very small upward bias as Stocks over a very long period have risen.So,an Index buyer could argue that eventually the Index will be higher than it is today.The problem is that word 'eventually': it can be a very long time between drinks.This is the reason I have a problem with using 25 year charts as a basis for investing or trading.Gold for example went nowhere for 26 years,and then it took off.Great if one purchased the year before takeoff,but not so great if one purchased 25 years previously!

 
Mookie
post Posted: Sep 12 2014, 05:35 PM
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In Reply To: wren's post @ Sep 12 2014, 05:18 PM

wren

3% for a month's trade on average is a nice return. However, i'm guessing if you were trading this or a seasonal trend as a whole then you would be looking at other factors in play. If gold was trending up and statistically you were looking at a positive probability then it would probably weigh a trade in your favour.

Would I buy gold this September - no. Would have to be a much harder gig during bear markets.

 
wren
post Posted: Sep 12 2014, 05:18 PM
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In Reply To: Mookie's post @ Sep 12 2014, 04:24 PM

Hi mookie,
Was referring to flower's chart 3.24 today,not that it matters.
Looking at the monthly rises/falls in flowers bar chart,what strikes me is how little difference there actually is between different months,and this is over 20 years,So,the monthly rises/falls over any particular year would vary greatly.A statistical analysis of all this would be interesting.My gut feeling (hardly scientific) is that the 'seasonal' variations are too small to trade in a meaningful way.

 
flower
post Posted: Sep 12 2014, 04:59 PM
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In Reply To: Mookie's post @ Sep 12 2014, 03:51 PM

QUOTE
Sorry, you are correct in the month with a direct relationship between the Indian buying season and the gold price -3% on average over 20 years.



Mookie--firstly your chart is conclusive --end of story. Over the years I have found that two periods dominate for upwards POG in USD's, September to Christmas, and/or January to March.

btw: you miss one demand factor--Investment. (as the USD drops the rabbits run to gold)---lets see if history merely rhymes or repeats.
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Gold price performance since 1994 per month

Source: ETF Securities



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