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Gold, Discussion
post Posted: Yesterday, 01:03 PM
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CFD and futures Traders welcome to join my page
Australian Futures Traders

post Posted: Jul 3 2015, 06:32 PM
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Neither nervousness about Greece nor worries about overly aggressive monetary stimulus has translated into a surge of support for gold, although Britain's Royal Mint did report this week that in June it had had "twice the expected demand for sovereign bullion coins from our customers based in Greece".

gold has barely budged during the latest Greek crisis (but the bitcoin price has rallied by more than 10 per cent) since the beginning of June, when Greece's problems began to dominate the headlines.)

Gold supporters .. argue that aggressive monetary stimulus by the world's main central banks have been pushing prices of financial assets – particularly bonds and sharemarkets – relentlessly higher in recent years. For example, they point out that nearly four-fifths of the world's sharemarket capitalisation is supported by zero interest rate policies, and more than half of all global government bonds yield less than 1 per cent.

But they argue that valuations cannot continue to move higher indefinitely, and that when investors start becoming worried about the lofty levels of global equity and bond markets gold is likely to regain its luster.

Finally, they note that the longer-term outlook for gold is positive, especially as rising wages and purchasing power across Asia improves the demand for the precious metal, particularly in those economies where financial systems remain under-developed and gold plays a key role as a store of wealth.

Gold also boasts the advantage of being a deep and liquid market, with the investable market estimated at more than $US2 trillion

"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

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post Posted: Jul 3 2015, 08:27 AM
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In Reply To: zac's post @ Jun 26 2015, 03:00 AM

Unprecedented global monetary easing is expected to drive inflation higher, and expand the current bond market bubble; and in this environment, one European fund says gold and mining stocks could benefit.

On the face of it, most would probably agree with the above statement.
However, the global monetary easing is not a recent phenomenon.
Its being going on in the US for a few years, in Japan longer than most stock players have been alive, and the UK and Europe somewhat shorter.
Even Oz has joined the Party.
Together with the turmoil in Greece and Europe, one would expect some pretty hefty gains by now.
So why is gold now at a 3.5 month low, and down 2 percent for the year against the USD,
Its down against the Swiss franc, the UK pound, and down 13% against the Yuan.
Only the Euro, up 8.5%, the Yen up 6.5% and the Canadian loonie up 3.5 % have managed an increase in Gold price.
Lucky Oz has increased by 8.5%.
Maybe inflation and gold will rise, but when??
How long does it take for the cause and effect relationship to be shown to be non existent, very small, inconsistent, multi year lagging, or all of the above??

The Chinese have been large buyers of gold over the past few years, now we may see some of their long term aims.

A bored security guard walks around the entrance hall of an unremarkable 11-storey building in downtown Shanghai, desperate to kill time. The receptionist, a young Chinese woman, is flopped across her desk, half-asleep.
It's a mid-June afternoon at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), China's one-and-only trading platform for the yellow metal, but the place is not exactly bustling with activity.
"We are quite recent, nothing like the century-old exchanges of London and New York. All trading transactions here are handled electronically. That's why it's quiet," said Yang Ming, one of the first employees at the SGE.

China hopes to increase its price-setting power to rival London's gold fix [Favre/Bloomberg/Getty Images]
The SGE's Main Board, where Chinese domestic investors buy and sell gold, occupies four floors of the building.
The International Board, which is dedicated to foreign investors, is located in Shanghai's new Free Trade Zone, on the other side of the Huangpu River. Altogether, more than 180 people work in these two locations.
The SGE was founded in 2002 to centralise all of China's gold trading, which had been a state monopoly until then, into one single marketplace.
Now, China hopes to use the SGE to increase its pricing power over the precious commodity. A yuan-denominated gold index will be launched here by the end of 2015 in a bid to challenge London's own benchmark, the "London Gold Fix", which has served since 1919 as the global reference point for the industry.
'Already a regional leader'
While the SGE is the world's largest trading platform for physical gold - such as bullion and coins - and Asia's prime destination for gold trading, it hasn't managed to become a global gold pricing centre rivalling London or New York.
It ranks fourth worldwide for global gold transactions, just ahead of Dubai which is in fifth place. Last year, 18,500 tonnes of gold were traded on the SGE, according to the annual report. That equals to roughly 75 tonnes per trading day.
"Global gold prices are not set here in Shanghai, but in London and New York," explained Gu Wenshuo, a spokesman for the SGE.
"Yet in Asia, we are already a regional leader. Our plan now is to launch our own price index, the Shanghai Gold, and make it a reference in our time zone. Of course, it's easier said than done," said Gu.
London has traditionally been the world's gold pricing centre. Western banks there have long had a big influence on the quotation of the precious metal.
But this may change soon with the upcoming Shanghai Gold index, and with China's "Big Four" banks showing increasing interest in international gold pricing mechanisms.
On June 18, Bank of China made headlines here after it became the first Chinese and Asian lender to join seven other banks that participate in the twice-daily electronic auction held in the UK's capital, a big move for the country.

Given China's yuan not being fully tradeable, and other controls on its financial system, I don't think honestly that suddenly consumers will abandon the dollar-per-ounce pricing of the London benchmark.
Philip Klapwijk, Precious Metals Insights Limited
Before it was transformed into an electronic auction, the "London Gold Fix" was set every day by Western banks who would simply call each other on the phone to set the price of gold on a daily basis.
This interbank system, however, is now under growing scrutiny for alleged price manipulation, and was subsequently transformed earlier this year into an electronic auction to allow more transparency.

Chinese gold exchange quiet

China is looking to protect its citizens from manipulation of gold prices by Western financial institutions.
What it means is that it wants to be the manipulator rather than the manipulatee.


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post Posted: Jun 26 2015, 03:00 AM
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In Reply To: capitalboosters's post @ Jun 25 2015, 05:06 PM

<h1 itemprop="name">Gold To Move Above $2,000 An Ounce In Three Years – Incrementum AG</h1>By Kitco News
Thursday June 25, 2015 12:37

(Kitco News) - Unprecedented global monetary easing is expected to drive inflation higher, and expand the current bond market bubble; and in this environment, one European fund says gold and mining stocks could benefit.

Thursday, Liechtenstein-based Incrementum AG released the ninth edition of its In Gold We Trust report, which highlighted some of the factors driving gold in 2015. Although there appears to be more downside risk to the gold market, the firm said that it is expecting prices to climb to $2,300 by June 2018.

“We are firmly convinced that gold remains in a secular bull market that is close to making a comeback,” the report said. “The main reason why we are not abandoning our fundamentally positive assessment of gold is the continuing combination of obvious over-indebtedness, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, and the ironclad determination of policymakers to generate price inflation.”

Although the long-term outlook is positive for the yellow metal, the authors at Incrementum, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek, added that they could not rule out another test of the recent lows in the near-term. They said they are looking for a final selloff to re-test support at $1,140 an ounce before there is a long-term rally.

The report explained that gold has been in its four-year downtrend because of increased focus on the Federal Reserve, which has caused a tightening of credit spreads, flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve, slower growth of the U.S. monetary supply, stronger equity markets and higher opportunity costs.

However, although gold has suffered against the U.S. dollar, it has managed to make considerable gains against other world currencies because central banks around the world are loosening their monetary policies, debasing their currencies to promote growth.

According to the report, this year 25 central banks have lowered interest rates. “There has never been before a comparable era of global zero interest rate policy.”

The authors noted the Federal Reserve is the only bank in a position to raise interest rates this year.

Although markets are expecting interest rates to push higher at some point this year, the report noted that the widening monetary policy gap will make it difficult for the U.S. central bank to pull the trigger on a new tightening cycle.

“As long as de facto every other major central bank prolongs its zero interest rate, resp. negative interest rate policy, we regard a significant deviation by the Federal Reserve as unlikely, as the upward revaluation pressure on the U.S. dollar would be too great, which in turn would definitely have negative consequences for the fragile U.S. economy,” the report said. “As a result, we consider the narrative of an isolated U.S. rate hike cycle to be naïve.”

Incrementum not only expects gold to benefit as an inflation hedge, but also as a hedge against the growing potential of a currency crisis.

The report explained that another result of the global monetary easing is that government bond markets are in expanding “bubbles” and investors could jump back into gold as these markets pop. They noted that rising inflation will ultimately push bond yields higher and spark a selloff in bonds, where “the potential for losses is enormous.”

“Ultimately the bursting of such a bubble can be averted by launching an ‘infinite QE program’. This means, however, that sooner or later, confidence in the currency will evaporate and it will lose all purchasing power,’ the report said.

post Posted: Jun 25 2015, 05:06 PM
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In Reply To: zac's post @ Jun 17 2015, 10:07 AM

Today 64% of traders recommend buying Gold.


post Posted: Jun 17 2015, 10:07 AM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ May 12 2015, 10:18 AM

Yes, NST is a good one. Also, EVN. And keep an eye on EXU over the next 6 months or so.

EXU has Approved Mining Licences (as yet undeveloped tenements) 300 k east of Perth with production costs expected to be around AU$700/oz !

Open cut with good grades.


post Posted: Jun 16 2015, 07:51 PM
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In Reply To: schusang's post @ May 11 2015, 05:28 PM

Today 48% of traders recommended to buy Gold


post Posted: Jun 4 2015, 08:40 AM
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XAUUSD holding above 1178 again overnight... it has closed above this support on Daily chart since late March
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post Posted: May 13 2015, 10:48 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ May 12 2015, 12:46 PM

If you are worried about people identifying the purchase, I have purchased bullion from Australian Bullion Company.
When it is sent, it has no identification on the outside that suggests it is bullion.
Indeed, the documents said it came from another company and suggested it was machine parts.
Perhaps the courier companies know what it is, perhaps not.


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post Posted: May 12 2015, 12:46 PM
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In Reply To: schusang's post @ May 11 2015, 05:28 PM


Welcome to sharescene. smile.gif

The first piece of advice I will give is never ever take anything you read on a stock forum like sharescene at face value: for all you know the poster who is providing such sage advice is really a kid in high school or a granny in a nursing home, both of whom are attempting to kill boredom rather than manage a substantial investment portfolio.

Now, on an entirely different matter, I am assuming you are not in the market to buy 400 oz or 1000 oz bars (which are indeed numbered and stamped). If you do have a lazy $60k or $150k sitting around to buy one of those bars then I suggest you talk to the Perth Mint or one of the specialist dealers directly or perhaps talk to your bank about a safety deposit box (remember these things are effectively bearer instruments [ie if you hold it you own it]).


Most people when they talk about holding physical gold however are talking about either coins or lighter weight bars (the standard is probably the one ounce bar, which is usually stamped but not numbered).

There are specialist outfits in most major cities that cater for this market. Here is a link to one of the bigger operators, that is a Sydney firm.


and here is one that operates in the Brisbane CBD.


You can have the product delivered by courier or you can go into the store and buy there. With delivery of course the courier company and the driver may be aware that you are buying bullion and of course the bank would be aware that you have made a payment but other than that the only people that would know about your purchase would be those you tell. Remember just because these firms may appear to be solid you should weigh up whether you are willing to risk doing business in this way.

The risk profile of gold bullion is quite different to that of shares, both have their own benefits and disadvantages. One of the down sides of bullion is that as an investment it is "lumpy" and not the easiest thing to trade with, whereas most major listed companies have issued shares which are readily tradeable (though a lot of the gold juniors can become quite illiquid when push comes to shove). You could look at speculative gold juniors on the ASX or other bourses, whether that be extremely risky explorers or slightly less risky producers or perhaps look at major operators that are likely to have a lower risk reward profile. The thing about investing in companies is that if your bullion drops in value by 90% you still have an asset that you can sell but if the gold price drops by 90% most likely your gold company has gone bust and you have lost all of your "investment". You need to read up on the risks involved and decide whether gold stocks - which as a sector is amongst the riskiest around - are really suitable for your circumstances.

A half-way house between bullion and stocks could be in the form of an exchange traded fund (ETF), which should track the gold price more diligently than shares but has the liquidity advantage of shares. One of the big gold ETF's that trades on the ASX uses the code: GOLD, but there are others as well. You need to read up on the product to see whether it is suitable for you.

My last piece of advice is ... do not rely on anything you are told on stock fora like sharescene. Do your own reserach, carry out your own due diligence and be aware that you could quite possibly lose shitloads of money as a result of the decisions you make. Other than that ... good luck.

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." Aristotle

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