DYE, DYESOL LIMITED

[arty]

In Reply To: triage's post @ May 20 2013, 04:21 PM

Agree, Triage
Back of envelope is always a great way to get a touchy-feely for reality.

But there is one possibility to remain aware of:
The offer is limited to 30% of the number of shares currently on issue. Going by the latest 3B, that's close to 60M new shares or $10M.
Furthermore, I suppose the Directors have the right to close early; in similar cases, that is expressly stated in the offer document. At a quick glance, I can't find it mentioned here. But in any case, I'll post my cheque sooner rather than leaving it too late.
If there is a serious scale-back, they'll refund the excess quick smart. May cost a few quid lost interest, but that's 1/12th of sfa 2.75%.

[triage]

In Reply To: Optionsman's post @ May 20 2013, 03:43 PM

Oppie

Yes with the share price nudging 40 cents and the spp price set at 16.6 cents and the eligible holder date set way back at the end of February it would appear that the spp is a big thankyou to the true believers who hung on through the worst of it. But the reality is that in monetary terms it is not such a big deal for eligible holders.

Back of an envelope stuff: as at last annual report - Nov 12 - there were just shy of 5,000 shareholders. Assume that say 2,000 of them are either ineligible (the stock can be bought and sold in Germany but those who hold through that arrangement are ineligible for the spp), or are eligible but for whatever reason do not subscribe for any shares in the spp process (I'm thinking Gav and Sylv could be two who decide to sit this one out ( )). The spp document states that a maximum of $2m is to be raised through the spp. So 3000 shareholders divided into $2m means that everyone should only get $666 worth or around 4000 shares. Assuming the price sticks at around 40 cents until after the process is finished then successful subscribers who were allocated 4000 would see a stag profit of around $930 for their efforts.

My take on applying game theory here is that should the DYE market price remain so far above the spp price a lot of eligible shareholders would be tempted to subscribe for as many shares as they can get which will mean that the scale back will be severe and everyone will end up with not many more than the 4000 shares. If I do decide to apply I would likely only apply for not much more than 4000 shares.

The one thing that could change this is if Dyesol decide to take advantage of the current hopium fumes surrounding the company's prospects and up the amount to be raised through the spp. You would have to think that its ambitions of getting some free or at least cheap funds from Canberra is looking decidedly dodgey at this stage and there is still no word that the Ohio or US governments have agreed to any new grants or subsidies for the Pilkington jv. Were Tata decide to pull the pin on their jv it will be a long long time before the market would again be as willing to support a cap raising by Dyesol as it appears to be now, and if Tata drops out I am not sure that Tasnee will be as keen to pitch in as much capital.

Anyway a few more weeks before any decisions need to be taken so it is pretty much a wait and watch brief imo.

[Optionsman]

In Reply To: arty's post @ May 20 2013, 10:51 AM

Looking the goods. Looking forward to the rights issue at 16.6c. They are rewarding long suffering shareholders with this one.

[arty]

In Reply To: arty's post @ May 17 2013, 11:10 AM

and another breakout with meaningful volume:

[arty]

Some serious buying seems to be going on. Judging by the volume, they're not content with $15,000 worth of spp at 16.6c, which might even be scaled back at that. This looks like much more than mere retail money.

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[arty]

In Reply To: triage's post @ May 16 2013, 01:25 PM

I am not of the view that the Tullocks should be portrayed as victims in this palace coup.

Neither am I, triage - far from it!
It's very often the case that an inventor's skill set is in a completely different zone to a financier's nous. Very few exceptions.
When I say I feel sorry for Gavin and Sylvia, it's because of their unfortunate timing. They sold for less than I bought and, multiplied by many Millions that they used to own, that comes down to $Millions profit foregone (and CGT saved - poor Swayne and Jules )

[triage]

In Reply To: arty's post @ May 16 2013, 11:45 AM

arty

As far as I know it was their choice to sell. Anyway they still have just shy of 5m shares so they've done okay in recent days.

FWIW I think Dyesol afforded the Tullocks a lifestyle they felt it owed them for long enough (they've been riding this vehicle in one form or another since the mid 90's from what I can gather).

Whilst the views expressed on the matter by Dicky C can be dismissed - it could be argued that this was a simple power play between he and the Tullocks - the observations and decisions made by the other three directors at the last agm were telling for me. Suffice it to say that I am not of the view that the Tullocks should be portrayed as victims in this palace coup.

Let's see if Dyesol sans Gavin and Sylvia can close a real deal here. If it can it will be a first.

[macduffy]

In Reply To: arty's post @ May 16 2013, 11:45 AM

Yes, they've sold plenty!

But if anyone should have a feel for what the company's worth............

[arty]

Got to feel sorry for the Tullochs: Founding parents of the company.
http://sciencesupply.com.au/research/Light...t%20century.pdf

And after being replaced as Directors, they've been selling Millions of their holdings way below current levels

again today: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01409571

[arty]

In Reply To: arty's post @ May 14 2013, 03:12 PM

gap closed ... and then some more downside.
Heading for the next one at 21.5c?

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