Trading for a Living, Deriving an Income from Fulltime Trading

[jwlkr]

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This has been my strategy...

Identify stock with >=6% annual effective div AND trading at or near 52-week low.

Buy stock using 5% of portfolio (Pf) capital.

Assume stochastic market...33% chance up, 33% flat, 33% down.

SP rise 5% = TP. SP fall 10% = double up...

This post has been edited by jwlkr: Jul 22 2010, 07:50 PM

[Ratman]

In Reply To: arty's post @ Jul 20 2010, 01:10 PM

Hi arty,
Your strategy will make money regardless of whether we are in a secular bear or secular bull as you buy on signals and sell on signals (stops). I think the point of the secular theory is that the old buy and hold strategy works well in secular bulls (ie, buy low PE ratios and watch them go up). It also says the old buy and sell does not work so well in secular bear markets as they grind their way through ups and downs with little overall progress.

[arty]

In Reply To: Ratman's post @ Jul 20 2010, 12:22 PM

Hi Ratman,

I'm not even sure how much this talk about "secular cycles" and "global markets" is worth.
Sure, some sneezes at one end of the world will fling some mucus into another crevice far away. But even though US and Europe may experience a Bearish outlook, that doesn't spell doom for every sector in the Australian (or Chinese, or Korean, or ...) market. Even the banks in the US are dancing to a totally different earnings and "security" tune, compared to the major Australian banks. The same with retail, indistrials, resources...

My strategy therefore is, and always has been, based on these premises:

• Analyse the Market you're trading in.
• Study the chart of the stock you intend to buy.
• Sell when the outlook for further growth is lessening.

[Ratman]

According to this article we are still in a secular bear which is not a good time to buy and hold. Best time is early on in the secular bull. He says within the secular bull and bear markets we have cyclical bull and bear markets. A cyclical bull started in March'09.
http://www.zealllc.com/2007/longwave3.htm
The idea of a 'P/E driven valuation cycle' seems ok to me. Not sure about the timeframes though.This secular bear started in 2000 and is due to finish around 2017 or there abouts.
Does anyone know where the average PE's can be obtained. There must be a website somewhere?
The author says in a recent article that this bull cycle within the secular bear is not yet finished. So he expects some more upside later.
http://thebull.com.au/articles/a/12880-is-...d-or-alive.html

[blueice]

In Reply To: arty's post @ Jul 19 2010, 01:32 PM

Well done arty, it all boils down to having a trading strategy in this market..................

[arty]

In Reply To: blueice's post @ Jul 19 2010, 12:45 PM

That has been working for me for more than 10 years.
(but you knew that I'd say that, didn't you )

[blueice]

Some interesting read.........


Buy and hold gets old
Market-timing strategies score big with tense investors

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Volatile stock markets have left investor confidence in tatters. Now some say it's time to accept the turmoil and adopt more dynamic trading strategies.

Proponents of so-called trend investing -- buying and selling stocks depending on technical analysis of the market's direction -- say the tactic not only enables investors to navigate unstable markets, but also prevents big losses when prices fall.

The proactive stance is winning converts at a time when concern about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery and the future of consumer spending is running high.

Yet this technique is controversial, as it counters conventional wisdom that time in the market, not market-timing, offers individual investors their best chance for success.

To trend followers, the notion of buy-and-hold investing -- picking stocks based on fundamentals and keeping the investments for months or years -- has no place in today's market and in fact is a recipe for defeat.


"You have to understand the game you're playing -- you're playing with sharks," said Kenny Landgraf, president of Austin, Texas-based, Kenjol Capital Management. "You may believe in buy-and-hold, but there are large players out there that don't."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-ti...tors-2010-07-16

[arty]

In Reply To: walbrook's post @ Jul 14 2010, 10:28 PM

Hi John,

My second string broker has been AOT Online, now a subsidiary of Commsec; I picked them for their web.IRESS platform that complemented the Market Analyser pretty well. (but their charting and technical analysis sucks)
At the time, I didn't mind paying $33 min brokerage, as I usually qualified for free software and data.

When my trading patterns/ conditions began to change earlier this year, I looked for some alternatives; one choice I've considered really closely was Trader Dealer at http://www.mdsfinancial.com.au/ The benefit there was, I could plug their order system straight into my Market Analyser. For me, however, that was also a disadvantage because I don't like to have all eggs in one basket. Their $19.50 minimum brokerage may be quite attractive, and if you qualify for frequent trader status, the software and data can be free.

In the end, I settled for PariTrade:
Check out their website http://www.paritrade.com.au/

The best decision I've made in a long time. Trading through the Pulse platform is just as easy as with Iress; as it doesn't depend on Java's ever-changing plugins, setup is more flexible. Another great Plus: Charts have real t/a tools with some amazing features that Iress lacked. For a small extra subscription, you can also get a MarketScan program that picks for you "promising" stocks that may meet your selection criteria.
$25 Brokerage is lower than AOT/Commsec, and as a "frequent trader", I also qualify for free platform and data.

[walbrook]

In Reply To: arty's post @ May 27 2010, 02:04 PM

Hi Arty,
I have been trading through Westpac Broking for years but I have been looking for something better and cheaper since I am now doing a lot more trades.
I have signed up to Rapid Trader but so far I don't feel that it meets my needs.(the price is ok)
I hope you don't mind me asking but I would be interested to know what you use so that I may check it out.
many thanks
John

[arty]

In Reply To: blueice's post @ Jul 14 2010, 03:58 PM

"Artificial Intelligence" - Yo! Makes sense - provided the programmer is intelligent enough to avoid the old "Garbage in - Garbage out."

otherwise, we all know -

Artificial Intelligence is no match for Natural Stupidity!