Logo
Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome to ShareScene - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Australia's Sharemarket Community - New Here? Click To Register >

11 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

Charting assistance, Support for learning about charting
wren
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 08:22 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,601
Thanks: 504


In Reply To: arty's post @ Dec 13 2009, 07:31 PM

Hi arty,
As always, there are plenty of ways to crack a nut.Of course P+F by definition disregards time.The 'failed downward break' is an important point.It doesn't matter how long this takes to happen.With regards to trendlines,there are different 'methods'.The original Cohen method was that onlly the 45 degree trendline matters,and that is the only line (s) one draws.This rquires the appropriate software to duplicate graph paper.Bullseye broker software does this really well--it actually looks like graph paper.The S/W I use--Bullcharts is also 'accurate'.I'm sure there are others.
I've found that waiting for a 'pullback' greatly improves the results with P+F.This applies esp.after a breakout from a congestion zone.You miss a few that don't pullback,however one decreases the number of times 'negative equity' appears on one's spread sheet.......just a few thoughts.One more point:1.5% or 2.0% box size is about right.



 
arty
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 07:31 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,208
Thanks: 2950


In Reply To: wren's post @ Dec 13 2009, 06:26 PM

Thanks Wren,

I started studying computing before computers were around biggrin.gif (or should that be wacko.gif ?) that's why I'm so reluctant to go back to pen and paper for anything more involved than basic arithmetic.

Anyhow - what I gather from your AMC chart are a couple of features culminating in that August-September breakout:
  1. Ascending triangle
  2. triple top (3 stacks of crosses ending at the same resistance level)
  3. falling trendline from late 2007 also broken
Have marked the items (or my interpretation of them) on your chart.
Attached File  AMC_P_F_features.gif ( 36.52K ) Number of downloads: 11


Have to admit: P&F charts, with the appropriate setting, show those breakouts very clearly. More clearly even than my templates.
Here is the weekly Trinity Chart over a similar time frame:
Attached File  AMC_w_2007_09.gif ( 22.89K ) Number of downloads: 8


and the Daily showing especially the breakout on August 10:
Attached File  AMC_d_2009.gif ( 23.23K ) Number of downloads: 9


The only component that your chart shows less clearly is the time. Sure, the distance between your vertical gridlines and the length of each individual stack indicate how much despair drove the price down in February and March; it also shows the boring bits after the forceful rally in April - I may yet get used to "seeing" those particular features as well. Right now, I have to look very closely and "process" the fact that for example nothing much happened between November 2006 and March 2007; April and May 2007 are also missing. As I said earlier: A different paradigm needs the eyes to be adjusted too.



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
wren
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 06:26 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 2,601
Thanks: 504


In Reply To: arty's post @ Dec 13 2009, 03:54 PM

Hi arty,
I started to use P+F before computers were around.Did the index plus a few stocks with graph paper (work!) Then subscibed to David Fuller--Fuller Money--still around and a great free daily free comment.David produced weekly chart books of major stocks worldwide:had sheds full of them!They came airmail from London.
A couple of points.
Originalal P+F used H+L ....all in Cohen's classic text.Many still use this method.Most P+F addicts still use 3 boxe reversals.
Fuller uses Close
I use average price for small stocks and H+L for lager--sayabove 70 cents or so
Best book (got em all) P+F Thomas Dorsey...in print.
Most use,imo is congestion zone analysis.
The chart of AMC shows:-
1.Failed downward break in Mar-April.Agood agonal sign.
2.A prolonged 'right extension'(Fuller's Term) Good to see after the F/D break:not always seen.
3.The upward breakout after the consolidation.
Hope you don't get hooked!
Attached File(s)
Attached File  AMC___Daily___AMCOR_LIMITED.gif ( 33.39K ) Number of downloads: 11

 



Said 'Thanks' for this post: arty  
 
arty
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 03:54 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,208
Thanks: 2950


In Reply To: motorway's post @ Dec 13 2009, 03:05 PM

Thanks again - so it is possible to use box sizes as a %-age of the price. Good to have that confirmed.
Apparently, however, my software is only operating on the Closing price; looks as it I'll have to write my own, based on hi/lo averages, or better still: the "typical" price as defined in IC.
The ideal, IMHO, would be the daily vwap. Sadly, I know of no data provider that supplies vwaps.



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
arty
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 03:38 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,208
Thanks: 2950


In Reply To: motorway's post @ Dec 13 2009, 02:49 PM

QUOTE
TLS is a stagnate swamp compared to the white water rapids of RIO
well put, Motorway smile.gif
bigpond's "bog pong" vs the rapids of "Rio Grande" biggrin.gif

Have also googled Fulcrum in conjunction with P&F and come across some very interesting contributions on another website (better not go there from here wink.gif ) Fascinating discussion about "Re: Point & Figure Charting - secret weapon?"

I'll reckon I'll find myself a quiet corner and do some serious reading.

Cheers, Arty.




--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
motorway
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 03:05 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 511
Thanks: 14


In Reply To: motorway's post @ Dec 13 2009, 02:49 PM

And here is a FMG chart

This for example is a 5% log chart.... Each Box is scaled Logarithmically---> Each Box increases its size ( decreases ) as the price moves Up ( down ) by the Log equivalent of 5%...... This is not just using a log scale But a LOG BOX size..

Also note the correct 1 box drawing of these charts there is always at least two Boxes in each column never can just be ONE
For good reasons....

Many programs will not draw one Box charts like this... ( most programs are designed for bar charts with P&F as add on )


A near equivalent is to use a TWO BOX reversal chart such that trend constants are similar...

Motorway
Attached File(s)
Attached File  FMG_arty.gif ( 78.3K ) Number of downloads: 11

 


 


arty
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 02:50 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,208
Thanks: 2950


In Reply To: arty's post @ Dec 13 2009, 01:34 PM

In case anyone else is interested in Point and Figure charting: Google "point and figure", maybe add "incrediblecharts" as well.
IncredibleCharts have a fair section: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/...igure_chart.php

Colin Twiggs also draws a similar conclusion regarding box sizes in cases of large price differences on the same chart. Check his comments on logarithmic box sizes: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/...re_charting.php



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
motorway
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 02:49 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 511
Thanks: 14


In Reply To: arty's post @ Dec 13 2009, 01:34 PM

Ok here are some charts

RIO at various stages of the decline / bottom / and at today these are $2 X 1 charts

I have just left the charts clean with only the 45 degree angles ( A Book in themselves )
You can see the reversal forming , how volume is useful to note and how the chart defines the bottom as accumulation ( & that volume )

Note the clarity

Also 3 box reversal charts by condensing the chart horizontally are useful to give even more clarity --> also on this chart are Objective vertical counts

Also a TLS chart now .2 for TLS is equivalent to $2 for Rio

See how stagnant the chart ?

Without clock time ... These charts Time... Rio is urging you to participate TLS is sending you to sleep

A eg 100 day moving average on a bar chart is always a 100 days long regardless . It can not adapt its length

The P&F chart says all days are not equal look how crowded the years on the TLS chart..

We see a static chart
But the change in speed is important too . It shows us SUPPORT and RESISTANCE being MET

Now you will learn a lot just from looking at the charts and working with them

P&F charts are said to SHOUT ... The P&F charts says only things that move are alive ... Clocks just tick regardless

TRENDS are stark in their clarity... Remember The charts can slow and stop they are lock step with the action...

TLS is a stagnate swamp compared to the white water rapids of RIO

To conform to a 45 degree line
The probability of a move up has to be different from a move down
As long as the action conforms to the hurdle of the 45 degree line
What is in place is a sustainable balanced trend--> The BOXES are memories and have memory

At the bottom of the RIO chart is one of the classic reversal patterns called a FULCRUM


http://book.pointandfigure.com/ on-line book one of the P&F classics from the 1930s

No matter how you change the box size
the structure of the chart is a true pricture of the Tape
The high is always where it is

on a bar chart changing the time frame changes that structure...
What was on one day becomes at the end of the week or the beginning of the month etc
Yet the TAPE never has changed the top is just the top and the bottom the bottom


Moving the box size by factor of two is classic practice and has modern science behind it as well..


Motorway
Attached File(s)
Attached File  RIO_arty_1.gif ( 74.42K ) Number of downloads: 11
Attached File  RIO_arty_2.gif ( 70.64K ) Number of downloads: 10
Attached File  RIO_arty_3.gif ( 77.98K ) Number of downloads: 11
Attached File  RIO_arty_4.gif ( 90.6K ) Number of downloads: 9
Attached File  TLS_arty.gif ( 66.73K ) Number of downloads: 10

 



Said 'Thanks' for this post: arty  xit  
 
arty
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 01:34 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,208
Thanks: 2950


In Reply To: motorway's post @ Dec 13 2009, 01:53 AM

Thanks, Motorway
for taking the time to explain. And explaining it so well smile.gif
I can see the fractal nature of the charts when I double the box size; and what you said about probability of trend changes is also making sense - even more so when I keep reminding myself that the time factor is being taken out of the equation.

From your examples, I gather you double the box size to zoom out to the next-higher level of granularity, but you leave the reversal condition as a single box? Conversely, in order to magnify and see trend changes with a higher volatility, you move the box size down to half. That seems to be the result I'm getting when I change the box size.

(Just as a footnote: The MA Pro operates on common templates, which requires the box size to be given in % of current price. That way, I can compare stocks in different price ranges - e.g. FMG and RIO - with the same parameter setting.
MA Pro draws also red noughts and green crosses, so the actual trends stand out. I'll have to have a chat with the master mind at MDS, how exactly the algorithm works. I also like the month codes in your chart: 1 for Jan through to C for Dec: very nifty smile.gif If I want to see the start and end dates of a particular run, I have to mouse-over.)

QUOTE
mathematical laws governing the Unit Chart (P&F ) need to be understood to some extent I THINK
That's definitely the focal point of the matter: Interpretation of a P&F chart requires a complete paradigm shift. I think I've caught the essence, thanks to your explanation. Checking with the developer and understanding the Maths behind it should make it clearer still.

I attach 2% charts for FMG and RIO, also FMG with 8c boxes, RIO's with 50c.
I would really appreciate if you could comment on the key features and most relevant conclusions - even concentrating on one of the four - maybe juxtaposed to the equivalent chart drawn with YOUR package - would be a great help.

Thanks again for the lesson graduated.gif

FMS 2%
Attached File  FMG_P_F_2_.gif ( 17.62K ) Number of downloads: 10


FMS fixed 8c
Attached File  FMG_P_F_8c.gif ( 18.11K ) Number of downloads: 6


RIO 2%
Attached File  RIO_P_F_2_.gif ( 18.39K ) Number of downloads: 8


RIO fixed 50c
Attached File  RIO_P_F_50c.gif ( 19.46K ) Number of downloads: 7




--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
motorway
post Posted: Dec 13 2009, 02:12 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 511
Thanks: 14


In Reply To: arty's post @ Dec 12 2009, 11:50 PM

My Avatar is not meant to be scary smile.gif

It is a Symbol of ''Intrinsic Time" --> Real time..

An important thing to grasp in order to understand eg P&F is "Intrinsic Time"

When time is UP ? devilsmiley.gif

That is what our P&F charts show
When Time is UP

Motorway


 
 


11 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareScene.com, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING