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farmer fred
post Posted: Oct 19 2012, 10:21 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Aug 2 2012, 12:37 PM

Looks like another ag company getting taken over. Archer Daniel Midlands, a $20 billion US company making a bid.They bought a large parcel at $11.75, hopefully we'll get more of a premium than that.

post Posted: Aug 2 2012, 12:37 PM
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Have added Graincorp to the port today.
With the continued poor summer grain yields in the northern hemisphere,
and prospects of good yields at least in the eastern seaboard (hoping that South western corner of WA get a boost of rain this weekend), the ducks seem to be lining up for AUS grain producers.


sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
post Posted: May 22 2012, 09:22 AM
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In Reply To: farmer fred's post @ Mar 22 2012, 08:13 PM

Good report at first glance plus the special divvie.

farmer fred
post Posted: Mar 22 2012, 08:13 PM
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In Reply To: farmer fred's post @ Mar 21 2012, 12:51 PM

RBS Morgan is a bit more downbeat about the takeover valuation for GNC.
They use a lower EBIT forecast than this year ie for an average season to give a valuation of $13.94 in a takeover. Then they decrease this again because of Graincorp being a smaller company to $11.11. Personally sounds a bit pessimistic to me.
I'll be hanging onto mine for another year with this season shaping up to be a good year again with the possibility of another special dividend and the threat of a takeover hanging over it. Chance of the $A easing wont hurt either.

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farmer fred
post Posted: Mar 21 2012, 12:51 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Mar 12 2012, 01:17 PM

Looks like Viterra bid by Glencore is going ahead now.

"Glencore International Plc (GLEN), the largest publicly traded commodity supplier, agreed to buyViterra (VT) Inc. for C$6.1 billion ($6.15 billion) to add grain assets in Canada and Australia as growth in Asia boosts demand.

Glencore will pay C$16.25 a share, it said in a statement yesterday. Glencore agreed to the deal in partnership withAgrium Inc. (AGU) and Richardson International Ltd., who will buy the majority of Viterra’s Canadian and other assets for about C$2.6 billion in cash, according to the statement.
Viterra dropped 0.4 percent to C$15.91 at the close yesterday in Toronto. Glencore fell 1.6 percent to 413.8 pence in London. The deal values Viterra at 14 times earnings before interest and tax, compared with the median of 16 times for 10 comparable deals since 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg"

Gives an interesting comparison of what might be offered for GNC in the event of a takeover. 14 times EBIT would value GNC at $18.50. No wonder our ag companies are slowly disappearing.

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post Posted: Mar 12 2012, 01:17 PM
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In Reply To: farmer fred's post @ Mar 12 2012, 12:26 PM

2258 GMT [Dow Jones] GrainCorp (GNC.AU) is on the radar Monday after Canada's Viterra (VTA.AU) revealed at the weekend that it had expressions of interest from third parties. The Sunday Telegraph reported that Glencore was behind a US$5.2 billion bid for Viterra, and Viterra's shares rose 24% in Canada, so both Viterra and GrainCorp shares could surge Monday. The Australian Financial Review has reported comments from GrainCorp CEO Alison Watkins, that the company is no more vulnerable to a takeover after the approach disclosed by Viterra. However, GrainCorp shares are likely to receive valuation support because of the Viterra bid, traders say. GNC was last at A$8.10. VTA last A$10.35. (david.rogers1@dowjones.com)

Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140; MarketTalk@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 11, 2012 18:58 ET (22:58 GMT)

There was also an interview in yesterday's Landline program, in which the ceo sounded very upbeat.

However, I'm a bit weary when a stock rallies after a bit of good news; especially when the Market is dozing with half the punters taking the day off to celebrate Labor...

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Although I received the buy alert late Friday, I certainly wasn't lured into this morning's frenzy.

I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

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farmer fred
post Posted: Mar 12 2012, 12:26 PM
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In Reply To: blueice's post @ Aug 6 2010, 10:16 AM

No posts on this for quite a while. Nice kick up today on takeover speculation of Viterra which bought out ABB a few years back. Seems to be a lot of consolidation happening in the Ag space.

"Glencore International AG and Cargill Inc. are among companies that are interested in possibly buying Canadian agribusiness heavyweight Viterra Inc., according to people familiar with the matter, as a wave of consolidation in the industry swells.

Viterra disclosed Friday that it received "expressions of interest" from unidentified third parties, sending the Calgary-based company's stock price soaring on expectations of a takeover. The company is now expected to run a sale process, exploring the interest of a handful of possible buyers, the people said.

Viterra operates grain-marketing and distribution businesses across Canada, the U.S., Australia, New Zealand and China. Switzerland's Glencore is a commodities-trading powerhouse that moves and markets everything from grain to oil and coal around the world. It is currently attempting a $90 billion merger with Xstrata PLC, a big metals and coal-mining company in which it already holds roughly a one-third stake.

Viterra shares rose 24% Friday to 13.58 Canadian dollars (US$13.71) in Toronto, giving it a market capitalization of C$5.05 billion (US$5.1 billion). Its shares also trade in Australia.

Scarcity of supply and booming global demand has prompted all manner of commodities players to seek mergers in recent years. In addition to the proposed Glencore-Xstrata tie-up and a number of mining deals, BHP Billiton in 2010 made an unsolicited $38.6 billion offer for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the world's largest fertilizer producer, in a bet that developing economies will drive up demand for the world's food supply. The deal ultimately fell apart, however, amid political opposition in Canada."

post Posted: Aug 6 2010, 10:16 AM
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In Reply To: farmer fred's post @ Aug 6 2010, 09:56 AM

Just a handful.............


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