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WPL, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED
apache123
post Posted: Oct 23 2014, 03:28 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Oct 23 2014, 02:52 PM

Flower

I'm not convinced that Phoenix South would be something that WPL would be looking at in the short term.

Near term cash flow production assets yes but not prospects which don't have a production schedule.

The WPL Board still have to answer to shareholders whom would want near term cash flow assets to fatten up Wolverines dividend cheques etc. biggrin.gif

They already have exposure to the Offshore Canning area in any case and had even farmed out part of their holding to BP recently.

WPL have waited for everyone else to expend their war chests on mergers/acquisitions leaving fewer bidders for the remaining fire sale assets like Apache's Oz producing assets.

Cheers
A



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flower
post Posted: Oct 23 2014, 02:52 PM
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In Reply To: apache123's post @ Oct 23 2014, 02:13 PM

However if WPL does not swallow a cash producing asset(s) within the next 6 months then a predator could be looking more closely over the numbers required.
6 months--an interesting timeline for some new assets in the new oil basin. Within that time frame the size and viability of Phoenix South 1 will be clear, and very possibly ROC 1 may have been drilled by then, assuming all goes according to plan CVN/Finder Exploration may become juicy asset targets for any body.

I can't see the oil price recovering for several months and if anything it is likely to dip further until it finds a floor.
That works in the favour of any would be predator with deep pockets.
Agreed, but the POO may not be this low for many more months--thus the timeline for all parties gets vital. IMHO



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apache123
post Posted: Oct 23 2014, 02:13 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Oct 23 2014, 01:45 PM

Flower, its a case of who moves first.

If WPL wish to avoid being gobbled up by a bigger player, then they need to swallow other cash flow positive asset(s) to force any would be predator to fork out more to acquire WPL.
Having said that, even if there is an agreement to acquire assets, the legal eagles need to get everyone to sign on the dotted line eg several months to sort out.

However if WPL does not swallow a cash producing asset(s) within the next 6 months then a predator could be looking more closely over the numbers required.

I can't see the oil price recovering for several months and if anything it is likely to dip further until it finds a floor.
That works in the favour of any would be predator with deep pockets.

Cheers
A



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flower
post Posted: Oct 23 2014, 01:45 PM
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In Reply To: apache123's post @ Oct 23 2014, 01:21 PM

QUOTE
Hannover-South-1 and Anhalt-1 prospects appear to be World Class prospects eg at least 500M barrel targets each.

Hannover-South-1 seems to be progressing at a snails pace.


Hi Apache 123 (Apache seems the name of the moment)----thanks for the map of the potential new oil basin, a phrase adopted by CVN to describe this whole lease area.

IMO WPL might be the host for a take over of all basin interests including the 40% of CVN assets owned by Apache and including those of Finder Exploration, rather than WPL being the target of a takeover.

Have no justification for that assumption other than a gut feel, it would be a big financial ask of WPL though.



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apache123
post Posted: Oct 23 2014, 01:21 PM
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Hannover-South-1 and Anhalt-1 prospects appear to be World Class prospects eg at least 500M barrel targets each.

Hannover-South-1 seems to be progressing at a snails pace.



For more details of Roebuck Basin see http://www.pfenergy.com.au/userfiles/file/...alk%20final.pdf



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balance
post Posted: Oct 17 2014, 07:36 PM
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In Reply To: apache123's post @ Oct 17 2014, 12:09 PM

The BHP WPL tie up has been kicked around before and I too think it would be received more favourably by the treasurer than a Shell T/O or merger.

It would make BHP quite a power in oil and gas. Ship loads of cashflow and little debt.



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apache123
post Posted: Oct 17 2014, 12:09 PM
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In Reply To: wren's post @ Oct 16 2014, 11:04 PM

my two cents worth...

The bigger picture is when a certain dual listed Oz cmpy will make its move on WPL

Should this dual listed Oz cmpy spin off its less rewarding assets into a yet to be floated company, it will have an even larger war chest.

With the Shell parcel overhang potentially on the market at the right price, it could quickly get a foot hold in WPL.

The Foreign Investment Review board is less likely to veto an Oz based cmpy from acquiring WPL.

After all WPL, is a huge long term cash flow cow (eg almost debt free) and would fit in nicely into the coffers of the dual listed Oz cmpy.
From 2017, WPL's cashflow is set to jump yet again.

The recent oil price weakness also represents an opportunity to pick up stock at a lower price.




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wren
post Posted: Oct 16 2014, 11:04 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Oct 16 2014, 10:03 PM

Flower,CVN would not be 'a sizeable transaction'.Apache's Oz assets maybe.As an aside,if CVN was in someone's sights it sure is a well kept secret.CVN closed at 20 cents today.

 
flower
post Posted: Oct 16 2014, 10:03 PM
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In Reply To: wolverine's post @ Oct 16 2014, 08:35 PM

QUOTE
The absence of any further capital management initiatives following the failed Shell deal, perhaps indicates that WPL might be close to executing a sizable asset transaction


Wonder who, if anybody, WPL have on their radar---a recently arrived near neighbour on the NW Shelf perhaps?



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wolverine
post Posted: Oct 16 2014, 08:35 PM
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from MS


Woodside Petroleum: Quick Comment: Strong Quarter for LNG
WPL’s third quarter operating and revenue performance was impressive. Production of 25.2 mboe was well ahead of our forecast of 22.1 mboe and the company has lifted its full-year production guidance range from 89-94 mboe to 93-95 mboe. Our estimate is 91.1 mboe and will need to be re-assessed. Both Pluto and the NWS LNG plants operated at record rates, in the case of Pluto at an annualized rate of 4.9 MTPA compared to name-plate of 4.3 MTPA. Q3 revenue was a record at US$1959m, well above our forecast of US$1633m, on higher production and record LNG shipments from both Pluto (19 shipments) and the NWS (72 shipments). Pluto LNG prices were strong at an average of US$16.15/mmbtu. Market concerns of weakness in the regional LNG markets have not borne out. Exploration drilling has commenced in the WA offshore “Outer Canning Basin” with the well “Hannover South” currently drilling, to be followed by “Steel Dragon”. Both are prospective for oil. Elsewhere, farm-in activity has added acreage offshore Morocco, Gabon and most recently Cameroon. In development, WPL continue to progress Browse FLNG with a decision to enter FEED targeted late 2014. Capex in the quarter was low, at US$228m, further driving positive FCF. The absence of any further capital management initiatives following the failed Shell deal, perhaps indicates that WPL might be close to executing a sizable asset transaction. Failing that, based on the latest result, WPL would be net-debt free by year end. We retain an EW rating.



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