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Uranium, Discussion
The End of Nuclear Power?
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blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 9 2018, 10:21 AM
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extract of interview with energy expert, Gianni Kovacevic ahead of Mines and Money Asia 3-6 April 2018

QUOTE
Modern energy expert, Gianni Kovacevic highlights a particular commodity challenge on the eve of his appearance at Mines and Money Asia

Investor, modern energy expert and author of ‘My Electrician Drives a Porsche?’, Gianni Kovacevic cautions investors looking to uranium.

Mr Kovacevic, speaking ahead of his appearance at Mines and Money Asia in Hong Kong this April, said it is becoming more and more difficult to see serious long-term demand for the commodity.

“There are 447 nuclear reactors and investors are always told about the 60 reactors under construction and the some-200 that are ‘proposed’ and ‘planned’,” he said.

“What they usually fail to mention, are the 300 reactors, of the 447, that are more than 30 years old. Or, the 85 reactors in the USA that were extended, again, to 2034 as the cost to shut them down is so punitive.

“India derives 2.1 percent of its electricity from nuclear and China about three percent. The facts have changed, and they are taking an all options approach, and that is looking less and less like nuclear as the big growth pillar even if they do some construction” he said.

http://www.asiaoutlookmag.com/news/caution...ranium?topStory



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 24 2018, 09:17 PM
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Russia to invest $250 million in uranium exploration, production in Argentina
Cecilia Jamasmie | about 20 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/russia-invest-250-mi...tion-argentina/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 9 2017, 09:38 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 5 2017, 12:39 PM

Stars “may be aligning” for the long-awaited uranium market recovery
J. BIRKS BOVAIRD | DECEMBER 08, 2017 | 1 COMMENT
QUOTE
Over the past 6 years, the words “up” and “uranium” have seldom been used in the same sentence. It’s been a long, hard slog for uranium miners. However, global events are currently occurring that may possibly signal the long-awaited fundamental shift. Indeed, announcements from Kazatomprom and Cameco over the past month signal the elimination of approximately 24 million pounds of uranium from the global market in 2018 alone.

https://investorintel.com/sectors/uranium-e...arket-recovery/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 6 2017, 12:53 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 5 2017, 03:53 PM

Short lived rally for U stocks - most back down today
BKY -5.91%
DYL -4.48%
TOE -10.26%
Mind you, the market in general is down and miners most affected




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 5 2017, 03:53 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 5 2017, 12:39 PM

A number of U stocks up today - BKY +16.4%, TOE +18.18%, DYL +11.67%



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 5 2017, 12:39 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Nov 27 2017, 01:06 PM

Kazakh supply shock to jolt uranium price

QUOTE
Kazakhstan’s state-owned Kazatomprom announced intentions to reduce its output of U3O8 by 20% or 11,000 tonnes (around 28.5m pounds) over the next three years beginning in January 2018. According to the company roughly 4,000 tonnes will be cut in 2018 alone "representing approximately 7.5% of global uranium production for 2018 as forecast by UxC."

QUOTE
Chang said that combined with the halt at McArthur River an estimated 42.3M lbs of expected production has been removed from the market. Annual primary production is in the region of 140m pounds according to Cantor Fitzgerald modelling:

We expect this news to push spot uranium prices to the mid-high US$20/lb range and perhaps into US$30/lb. However, the degree of movement may be muted at first due to fact that there are a limited number of qualified purchasers of uranium – making it a less efficient market.

We estimate that less than 10% of total uranium demand for 2018 and 2019 are uncovered, as utilities have shored up what were once large shortages through spot purchases or short contracts. As such, there is less of an impetus for utilities to make purchases immediately.

Inventory levels are also a concern as we estimate that there are 800-1,200M lbs of total above ground inventory of which about 700-800M lbs are held by utilities. We do not believe that all of it is available for sale as significant portions are held for strategic purposes and necessary utility needs. It will be interesting to see how much of a dampening effect these inventories will have on this news.

http://www.mining.com/kazakh-supply-shock-...-uranium-price/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


arty
post Posted: Nov 27 2017, 01:06 PM
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What a difference a temporary mine closure makes smile.gif

Attached Image
ERA is the strongest beneficiary.



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

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nipper
post Posted: Nov 9 2017, 01:33 PM
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QUOTE
Shares in Australia's long-suffering uranium stocks have soared after the news that world's biggest high-grade uranium mine would be suspended due to weak prices. Canadian uranium giant Cameco announced overnight that it will suspend operations at its Macarthur River mine in Saskatchewan for ten months, with the news driving the likes of Deep Yellow, Bannerman Resources and Toro Energy significantly higher today.

Deep Yellow — which is now led by former Paladin Energy boss John Borshoff — was up almost 30 per cent to 26.5 cents, Toro was up 20.7 per cent to 3.5c and Bannerman jumped 19.5 per cent to 4.9c. Energy Resources of Australia, which is processing stockpiles from the ageing Ranger mine in the Northern Territory, had gained 11 per cent and the Andrew Forrest-backed Vimy Resources was up 8 per cent.

Cameco said that the Macarthur River suspension would last for ten months, with the company to meet its supply contracts with material from its existing stockpiles. While that means that overall market supply is unlikely to change significantly as a result of the Macarthur River closure, the move has nevertheless had a positive impact on investor sentiment towards the sector
.
The spot price of uranium is currently at just $US19.95 a pound, and has been in the doldrums since the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan. Most of the world's uranium mines are running at a loss at current spot prices, and a price of around $US70 a pound is generally seen as needed to inspire new developments



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 30 2017, 07:35 PM
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Another interesting read

Issue 30:
Uranium
This issue of the The Alchemist examines the current uranium market in light
of the recent rise in the spot price and whether the strong performance of
uranium equities this year is justified by the longer-term fundamentals of the
nuclear industry

Uranium — Is this a Turnaround or has the Moment Gone?

QUOTE
CONCLUSIONS
The question this issue tries to answer is whether the positive
uranium price rebound in January 2017 is the bottom of the market or
whether it was just a short-term reaction to an announcement.
Additionally, is there promise in the future of uranium?

Nuclear energy still provides the best solution for non-polluting 24/7
base load power, particularly at a time when renewable energy

(coupled with storage or fossil fuel back-up) is yet to prove itself. In
the short-to-medium term, it is China’s Five Year Plan to secure
energy, be a net exporter of power and have nuclear power
production generate between 120-150GWe by 2030 that is driving
positive sentiment towards the market. The plan to bring back 48
Japanese reactors online completes a positive Asian uranium story.
This is supplemented by near-term ad hoc opportunities for the
renewal of long-term supply contracts.

This planned recovery is countered by anti-uranium sentiment driving
policy, large stockpiles, a strong focus on renewable development
and the removal of uranium power generation from Europe. Looking
to the long term, the cost competitiveness of uranium power
production, coupled with the effects of medium-term factors, raises a
large question mark over uranium’s future.

The spot price rise in January was a reaction to a low-cost operating
company choosing to keep pounds in the ground rather than
continuing to oversupply the market and may very well not be
sustained. Investment in uranium should be approached via a
‘preparation for growth’ strategy; as and when interest returns to the
market due to higher demand, transactions are likely to attract
significant premiums for good assets.






--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 23 2017, 02:41 PM
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Posts: 4,546
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QUOTE
Decommissioning the Fukushima reactors will cost 8 trillion yen ($72 billion), according to an estimate in December from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Removing the fuel is one of the most important steps in a cleanup that may take as long as 40 years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-fukushima-fuel

I'd always, though perhaps in a whimsical and unthought- through way, had the idea we could drop our waste into subduction zones, and let the mantle take care of it. However, it may be too late.
QUOTE
according to famed theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking, it's time to free ourselves from Mother Earth. "I believe that the long-term future of the human race must be in space," Hawking tells Big Think. "It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster on planet Earth in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand, or million. The human race shouldn't have all its eggs in one basket, or on one planet. Let's hope we can avoid dropping the basket until we have spread the load."




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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