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Euros are in a muddle for the next decade
eshmun
post Posted: Jul 13 2015, 11:02 AM
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No immediate end in sight with the Grexit saga. Doesn't look like the Germans are backing down at this point and possible fresh elections have been mentioned now. We will have to see what another day in the Greek parliament throws up.

"Although sources close to Tsipras said the leader was determined to do whatever was needed to keep Grexit at bay, political tumult also beckoned. Insiders conceded that a cabinet reshuffle – removing ministers who had refused to vote the austerity package through parliament early on Saturday – could come as early as Monday.

By late Sunday night it had become clear that Tsipras’s U-turn on measures he had once spurned had produced a potentially far-reaching split. In addition to 17 MPs breaking ranks at the weekend – stripping his government of a working majority – 15 other lawmakers also indicated they would not approve the agreement in its entirety. The resistance raises the spectre of Tsipras being forced to call fresh elections – a move described as potentially catastrophic for the country."

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/j...l-tells-tsipras

Eshmun




 
maxwellreid
post Posted: Jul 13 2015, 09:07 AM
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In Reply To: eshmun's post @ Jul 9 2015, 06:10 PM

Take your point, and am I extending it to think that the black economy is one of the pillars of southern Europe? However, this pillar gets disturbed when customers no longer want your goods or services, because of fear of the future and/or capital controls. If the Greeks hike the VAT, will they collect more or less in taxes. Maybe not if VAT is charged and then with held as the amounts become larger and larger.



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"A man lives a life shorter than a hundred years but worries a worry a thousand years long"
 
eshmun
post Posted: Jul 9 2015, 06:10 PM
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In Reply To: maxwellreid's post @ Jul 8 2015, 01:47 PM

maxwellreid,

Yes you are right about that. Apparently there have been 61 new governments formed in Italy since 1945. That's roughly a new government every 14 months. Now with 28 EU member countries and each having its own political machines, it makes for very difficult and complicated decision processes.

My point really was that the income flowing through the black economies of Europe doesn't care if loans are repaid or if there is enough money to pay the coupons on European government bonds.

Eshmun




 
maxwellreid
post Posted: Jul 8 2015, 01:47 PM
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In Reply To: eshmun's post @ Jul 8 2015, 11:44 AM

It's not whether Europe has a lot of gold stashed away (it does) or whether they have a great black economy, but whether their politicians can make a decision. They look like cartoon characters, think SouthPark



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"A man lives a life shorter than a hundred years but worries a worry a thousand years long"
 
eshmun
post Posted: Jul 8 2015, 11:44 AM
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In Reply To: alonso's post @ Jul 8 2015, 11:07 AM

An I told you so. The article was a bit on the sensationalist side in my opinion. I think the picture of Merkel getting out of her limo speaks a little to that bias.

"There is a clear risk that the economic performance of the south will diverge from, not converge with, the north"

The problem with Europe is that this statement doesn't just hold true for Europe it can also operate within European countries.

Italy for example is more or less divided politically and economically between the north and the south. One thing that a lot of people also forget about economies such as Italy though, are the large black economies and also the old money that exists in form of tangible assets. These black economies and old money lurk outside of the perusal of the ECB and bean counters in Brussels. Europe is more resilient than those across the channel and most commentators might otherwise think. Better be sure that your own backyard is tidy before casting aspersions over others.

Eshmun








 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 8 2015, 11:15 AM
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In Reply To: alonso's post @ Jul 8 2015, 11:07 AM

they did not listen then, perhaps they never will"
Don Mclean, Vincent.

Mick



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alonso
post Posted: Jul 8 2015, 11:07 AM
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In Reply To: maxwellreid's post @ Jul 8 2015, 09:29 AM

I liked this article:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-31...ming-crash.html

What was that song? "they did not listen then, perhaps they never will"



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"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears this is true"

"What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom." Adam Smith

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maxwellreid
post Posted: Jul 8 2015, 09:29 AM
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In Reply To: maxwellreid's post @ Jun 27 2015, 02:00 PM

Ah, those Europeans cannot for love or money make a decision. So, they dither on like an old Greek chorus. In 5 days they say they will make a decision. Ah, if only they could. The path of least resistance will be classed as a decision, I suppose. The world is watching this with tired eyes. SE Asia remembering their IMF dealings will know that Europeans will cut a deal, the sort they were never offered



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"A man lives a life shorter than a hundred years but worries a worry a thousand years long"
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 28 2015, 03:43 PM
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In Reply To: maxwellreid's post @ Jun 27 2015, 02:00 PM

The (absolutely) latest news from Greece:

https://twitter.com/valuewalk/status/612948290267688960






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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne
 
maxwellreid
post Posted: Jun 27 2015, 02:00 PM
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In Reply To: Ana Kingston-Blake's post @ Jun 26 2015, 11:03 PM

I guess, it's a case of degrees in order. Greece is a great country, but it ran up the bill with other countries. Now they want it back



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