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2012-2020 US Debt clock runs out of numbers
jacsar
post Posted: Apr 27 2012, 03:37 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Apr 27 2012, 08:03 AM

Was reading the argy bargy and went back to check a couple of comments and the posts were pulled..Tis a dangerous game when things get personal in a public forum..good luck kahuna1 and look forward to your future posts.....cheers

 
kahuna1
post Posted: Apr 26 2012, 04:29 PM
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In Reply To: Petert20's post @ Apr 26 2012, 02:51 PM

Yep,

time will tell and good luck.

One never knows and certainly possible I am wrong ... did however play the banks game for last 3 years and 500 grey hairs.

I find the whole situation overseas disturbing. When you have companies making money hand over fist and a lot of it to do with inefficient goverment spending ... banks being lent funds at 1% and lending at 4% ... and then interest rates at historic lows making forward cashflows look distorted via unrealistic mark to market via these low rates ... nothing makes sense. the debt, the valautions. Cant argue overseas a lot of companies on paper look as though theya re doing well but with the banks they have put some of the really concerning debt to one side and are not marking it to market. Morgan Stanleys last reporting a classic if they actually included things that were bad and took out the good side they chose to include they didn't make any money. Big money centre banks in the US when you dig deeper need more capital and the profits being reported basically dwarfed by what overhangs as potential harmful things.

Maybe the US fed can and will hold it together. Here RBA I suspect does three cuts next few months maybe outside chance at 0.5% next meeting early May ..

I didn't mean to be rude but if you look at a chart ANZ has had a range of about $18- to $24- last 12 months and its where ? At $24- so its the top end of things. Does it go higher ? maybe with interest rates going down the fully franked dividends make it look more attractive ... but what I meant is ANZ is $24- not $22- or even $20- buying at $20 and below was and is my game letting it go as the more game buy it.

WBC and NAB yep have owned them and still own NAB in some ways ... but still same thing ... at the higher end of the range.

Its not going to be driven by internal domestic events or that which is worrying me but the overseas stuff longer term.

Who knows ...

US elections seem to be a two horse race totally now and Obama seems at this stage to be ahead.

I personally hope he gets in and takes some action but fear more than likely he might be President but lack the votes in govt to get much done. US budget and debt is a shocker and he if elected CANNOT run again as US presidents can only serve 2 terms and someone needs to make soe very serious and painful chnages to things. That as someone now 47 my life expectancy is 20 years MORE than when i was born and can expect to live till 84 vs around 64 .... the fact that pensions and health care benefits were made to last about 8 years back in the 1950's vs the drain of people lasting 20 years now ... things never ever will work and the US has turned a blind eye to this problem and much the same with the EU. The GFC has just added to the problem and bailing out things which should have been allowed to wither and die has only made the whole issue worse.

He in oz we changed the age you can get the pension and it hardly caused a ripple and suspect the pension actually goes up and by the time I am there in 20 years time those age 40 will not expect to get a pension till age 72 if not age 75.

All an aside ... this structural change which hasn't been made as its political suicide for an elected person is needed. As to the debt via GFC I suspect its 50 years till its paid off ... either that or like greece bond holders in many nations take a 50% haircut.

Happy happy happy ... but last place I really want to be is exposed to banks going forward.

Good luck



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Petert20  indeficit  
 
Petert20
post Posted: Apr 26 2012, 02:51 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Apr 26 2012, 11:11 AM

"Suppose only time will tell and wish you luck ... I do prefer to buy low and sell high personally."
thanks kahuna... I'm only new at this game... rolleyes.gif



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kahuna1
post Posted: Apr 26 2012, 11:11 AM
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In Reply To: Petert20's post @ Apr 25 2012, 01:07 PM

Hmm


Well do wonder what you were doing when the banks were at their lows and I was bullish ... ANZ NAB WBC CBA right now about 40% higher than their lows 6 months ago.

Not being concerned about the bigger picture and thinking of buying around here basically the opposite of my own style and doctrine.

The time to add was then when no one liked them.

Adding here or 10% lower is basically buying in the top end of the range. It may of course prove correct they just continue higher ... then again the last 2 years have been sprinkled with these corrections.

Suppose only time will tell and wish you luck ... I do prefer to buy low and sell high personally.



--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Petert20  
 
Petert20
post Posted: Apr 25 2012, 01:07 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 24 2012, 06:30 PM

I will be picking up the banks, particularly WBC and NAB on any pullbacks. wink.gif Not too concerned about the "bigger picture".

 
Dave_vic_ozz
post Posted: Apr 25 2012, 09:25 AM
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Fed meetings and an interesting take of the outcome from the USA web site, The Economist. dated 23/4/12

QUOTE
The dollar is inching upward, and markets are signaling lower expectations of future inflation. All of these data points correspond to effective tightening of monetary policy. If the Fed doesn't take steps to counteract these developments at this week's two-day meeting, it will have allowed policy to become more contractionary. It will, in other words, help to transmit the trouble in the euro area to the American economy.


http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchang...nomy?fsrc=gn_ep

BTW the timing of the EU leadership void is perfect for the Fed. Imagine if this all overlapped and neither could change paths.



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My comments reflect the moment in which they were posted.
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flower
post Posted: Apr 24 2012, 06:30 PM
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In Reply To: Petert20's post @ Apr 23 2012, 11:37 PM

QUOTE
I believe the RBA dropping interest rates will have more of an affect on the ASX



IMO well and truly already factored in by the market. It's the bigger world picture that matters more.



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Apr 24 2012, 04:40 PM
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In Reply To: Petert20's post @ Apr 23 2012, 11:37 PM

Hi,

Well Peter would agree with you ... the CPI numbers today were way below expectations and whilst I expected the RBA to act last month next month they act. Question is how much. Market expecting 0.25% but seriously could be 0.5% with the CPI data today well below expectations.

What amazes me is the RBA had a fair idea which way these numbers were heading and DID not cut. I suppose maybe they await the federal budget but suspect we have 3 cuts minimum by end of year 0.75% which is expected by the market already but the way they do it might not be.

Today again despite overseas leads very very weak and we should have been down 0.7% we ended up o.2% ... yet again another one of these gains vs overseas.

AUD smacked a little on the CPI .

Has to be said we are creeping up vs overseas and a %% here and there always welcome.

Then again EU news not good and as always I look at Japan and USA and go eeek. In the meantime however we crawl higher and even my pet TLS getting close to reducing about 5% of it every 10 cents higher from $3.50.

Have a great Anzac day.

Take care



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Petert20  
 
Petert20
post Posted: Apr 23 2012, 11:37 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ Apr 22 2012, 01:11 PM

Sorry but I disagree, flower. I believe the RBA dropping interest rates will have more of an affect on the ASX. wink.gif

 
flower
post Posted: Apr 22 2012, 01:11 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Apr 21 2012, 03:49 PM

QUOTE
Well another week another rally.


K1---next "moment in time" arrives this Wednesday as the FOMC meet, whatever is said or not said IMO is the next likely catalyst for the world's markets---moving them either way.



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
 


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