2012-2020 US Debt clock runs out of numbers

[328jet]

Chinese stockmarket back to March 2009 levels. I hadn't realised how much the ASX had diverged in the last few months, although with the data coming out of China of late its hardly surprising.








Our market has run up on the strength of the banks, industrials and anything with yield while the resource stocks have pulled against (although done better in the last month). It begs the question what drags us up further from here?

The market has been loving the QE tease from the Fed and ECB since Draghi's 'whatever it takes', but will reality disappoint or is it already factored in?
On the US side can Bernanke really initiate QE with the S&P at 4 year highs and ~10% off all time highs? Will slightly lower long term rates make all that much difference or could it just refuel commodity speculation? Higher food & gas prices won't be good for the US consumer.
Europe looks like a complete political mess. No doubt they will agree to some sort of bond purchase program that will band-aid things in the short term, but its hard to see it making much of a difference to the bigger fundamental problems.

Still long here, but thinking about handing the banks back next week.

[Dave_vic_ozz]

I will just leave this here.

[nebo]

In Reply To: disco stu's post @ May 8 2012, 11:49 AM

Kahuna 1,

i have been a lurker on this site since Jan 04 and I have spent many a lunch time at work reading your posts.

Thank you, As an uninformed small fry it was great reading your perspective.
you will be missed and good luck in the furture, whatever it holds for you.

many thanks,

nebo

[disco stu]

In Reply To: wolverine's post @ May 8 2012, 11:01 AM

Sadly the serious sledging was allowed to run amok, I'm pretty sure K1 could have seen your tongue in cheek response - just appears SS is super sensitive atm.

Keep up your one liners, they hold more truth than the long winded crap I post half the time.

[wolverine]

Since my post was firmly tongue in cheek and it has been moderated I wonder if this forum is being overly influenced by supersensitive, politically correct types of personalities?

If this forum isn't robust enough to take a range of opinions or heaven forbid a small joke then it makes one wonder how long it will be around.

If K took offense at my post then he is welcome to shoot me an email klcc at tpg dot com dot au and for that matter this is open to anyone else.

[jacsar]

In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ May 7 2012, 05:42 PM

kahuna1, take care..you will be missed and best wishes for the next part of the journey..thanks again..jacsar

[kahuna1]

Hi,

I wish to thank everyone for their support, but there comes a time in our lives when things change. Over the years on this forum and others I have tried to give an honest opinion on markets for well over 10 years now.

My journey and life is changing and time to devote some time to others things.

On SS alone humbled by over 1,600 thanks, I have now done 2,390 posts. Most quite detailed with over 30 mins average work in each. That's 1,195 hours or at 38 hours per week just over 31 weeks full time work. This is just SS, add the others I suspect it comes to over 1 year full time work devoted to sharing an opinion.

I believe these factors and imbalances I have covered many times will totally dictate our direction for many years. Until they are sorted, short term with EU and US rates at zero they are artificially supporting the equity markets. Choice is either to receive zero interest or a 3% dividend, option two prevails. With government overspending at 100% above where it should be, companies themselves are getting not only cheap funding to borrow they are in many cases being given handouts by the government inflating their profits overseas.

Not what I would call a realistic environment to invest in. Bond side is so out of whack it hurts. Demand is going up as governments borrow more, risk is going up with one country already defaulting, likely more, yet the cost and price remains low. Borrow for as long as you can at fixed rates.

When you have one factor pointing in one direction usually it moves things 10% if you have two 20%, three likely 30% and when you have 5 things even if your wrong on half of them your view you end up well ahead. Search for these types of opportunities and follow them.

　

Last post. Just to say thanks !!

I do appreciate all the thanks, but my journey will take me elsewhere from now on.

Take care and good luck with your investments.

　

Mark

[Dave_vic_ozz]

Mark,

I was going to start another thread to encourage people to post their support of you and your comments. I realised this may not be necessary and as much as I hate going off topic, here we all are, very off topic.

Mark, regardless of how we got here, we need you back. Over 1600 "thanks" to you says so much.

I hope I (we) all get the opportunity to keep clicking your " SAY THANKS" icons many more times.

BTW if you come back, we can got back on topic. A place we really need to be.

Dave

[henrietta]

In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ May 5 2012, 10:22 AM

Forever in your debt, Mark. Thanks for sharing your research and knowledge , which is far more sophisticated than my own.Your commentary has been greatly appreciated, and will be keenly missed.I hope you eventually change your mind, but respect your decision, and wish you well.
Many thanks
J

[arty]

In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ May 5 2012, 10:22 AM

Hi Mark, and 'bye Mark;

it's with a feeling of a great loss that I say thanks for sharing your views over all those years.
Your departure will leave a big gap in ShareScene, one that none of your attackers will be able to fill.
(nor any one of those members, whom you inspired to look behind the facade published by the spruikers and squawkers)

As I'm afraid you "mean it" this time when you say "NEVER", I wish you the very best in whichever endeavour you choose.