The Next Bubble ?

[Brierley]

In Reply To: apache123's post @ Apr 7 2011, 04:44 PM

Hi Apache
Posted that cos it was Woods latest free article. A lot of his other articles deal with longer term Dow Theory.
Main point from him for a while now is in bold

.....On July 23, 2009 the primary trend, in accordance to classical Dow theory, was confirmed as bullish. In spite of the fact that our longer-term work continues to suggest that this is a bear market rally that should ultimately prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of a much longer-term secular bear market, nothing has occurred to date to indicate that the bear market rally has run its course......

The bit in bold seems inline with your concerns.

I'm positioned for, and anticipating at least a healthy correction before mid year.

As for bubbles, I think the AUD is a crowded trade although I'm enjoying it while living os and buying stuff online from USA.

[apache123]

In Reply To: Brierley's post @ Apr 7 2011, 03:54 PM

Thanks Brierley.

Tim Woods calcs only appear to looking at the past 12 months as opposed to the 10 or more years trend which I was looking at.

Guess even the preverbial tea lady would have her own DJ theories

[Brierley]

In Reply To: apache123's post @ Apr 6 2011, 07:24 PM

Dow Theory Update By Tim W Wood CPA 06/04/2011

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors...update-4-6-2011

[apache123]

Call me cautious but I'm interpreting some form of a correction on the Dow Jones in the coming months which may rub off locally (depending upon how long the correction goes for).

Above is a chart for DJIA for the past 30 years.

The first striking thing you may notice is that the Volume traded in the past 2 years has been in a steep decline. This is not a sign of a healthy recovering market.

Another indicator is that the MACD worm is near the top of its cycle and could begin to turn downwards.

The DJIA chart also looks like forming the 2nd shoulder of a "Head and Shoulder" pattern.

Too early to call it GFC Part 2 but still worth keeping an eye on it in the next few months.

[Dave_vic_ozz]

In Reply To: arty's post @ Jan 11 2011, 10:45 PM

If I had to guess why the bank requests you to write this particular 250-word essay, I would say Primarily to demonstrate your mastery of logic, English, and a basic knack of explaining a rational thought process.

Bingo.

Impact is your goal by understanding your target audience and their expectations of you.

So Arty is right but can I suggest you personalise it? BTW a good friend interviews grads and they look for those with a personal interest in their business.

I have always been interested in renewable energy. May be this is a product of my education, media, politics and recent extreme weather events.

You could discuss –

Is it a fad or will it develop and evolve. Example to get you thinking, water tank sales will plummet this week and the sales of mobs and squeegees will rocket in the eastern states.

Personalise this may be? -The (Sectors of the ) Renewable Energy industry has the strongest potential to form into a bubble due to three factors: large flows of investment, Governmental intervention, and speculative psychological irrationality. Working part time at the hardware store, I notice sales of tanks has dropped off.

Conclude (you are missing a conclusion ) with something like –
My experience, compared with, economic bubbles. Say - Don't loan too much money to a water tank business.

[arty]

In Reply To: Duster's post @ Jan 12 2011, 06:22 AM

I am always unsure as to the use of a comma

So am I, mate. So am I.

[Duster]

In Reply To: arty's post @ Jan 11 2011, 11:14 PM

Hi Arty,

Yes, just having a dig.

The second post was a serious question though. I am always unsure as to the use of a comma in this situation. I was taught not to use a comma before "and" or "but". Sorry to be off-topic, but I see it all the time

Cheers,
Duster.

[arty]

In Reply To: Duster's post @ Jan 11 2011, 10:52 PM

I knew somebody would pick me up on that. Happened faster than I thought
There's a slight difference between an "opinion piece" on a casual www forum and a piece of penmanship for the Board of one's would-be employer. But I'm sure you knew that and were just pulling my leg. Have another Riddoch

[Duster]

In Reply To: Duster's post @ Jan 11 2011, 10:52 PM

Also, probably not a question here but should you use a comma before a joining word ? ie: but & and.

[Duster]

In Reply To: arty's post @ Jan 11 2011, 10:45 PM

Come on Arty, you can do better than that. Primarily - capital "P" ? subsidized ? - we are in Australia and what's wrong with it's ?

and now it's less than half of that