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What is needed to start a market turnaround ?, Spitball speculation on matters beyond our control
post Posted: Oct 6 2011, 01:23 PM
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In Reply To: thirty8south's post @ Oct 19 2008, 11:59 PM

Fast forward exactly 3 years since the last post, and the question is as germaine today as it was then---HOWEVER things ARE different (potentially) this time around as today we have both the ECB and BOE having meetings.

The ECB probably hold a bigger key than the BOE since the UK has taken steps to reign in it's debts, whereas the ECB seems far more likely to start QE3.

IF the ECB today DROP interest rates by .5% AND/OR start QE3 maybe in tandem with the BOE and the FED markets worldwide should take a big step forward instantly---IMHO.

Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
post Posted: Oct 19 2008, 11:59 PM
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60 Minutes was very gloomy tonight with talk of multi year recessions / depressions.

* To make the shakeout complete, maybe the property market needs to correct in the order of 40% and double digit unemployment rates. Grim, huh? Unlikely in practicality to be achieved inside 18 months.

* Traditionally, equity markets lead property markets, employment etc by 9 to 12 months, so there is much more widespread pain & hardship ahead. On the other hand, first in - first out, so you may wish to place your bets on the next market by end 2009.

* Change of mood in America. They elect their new president next month, to be inaugurated in January. Americans have tired of the human toll of their warring ways. They want change. Change has been promised. That may be enough to spark a mood swing.

* Should the unspeakable occur, it is a very good choice for Vice Presidents. There is still nothing more frightening in this world than an angry America.

* China can do anything it puts its mind to do. With 1/6th of the global population, China can keep growing with purely domestic consumption. Probably far better than supplying an already saturated American consumer (<5% of world population).

* SPORT. We all saw what the Chinese did with the Olympics. India, another 1/5th of the global populace is on a high with IPL and currently have Australia on the ropes, with a 300 run lead. We Australians know how sporting success does translate into good sentiment of the people. More than a third of the globe will be relatively confident and happy.

* The same cannot be said for London 2012. The poms are hopeless at sport, even the games they invent (cricket) and they have to import their premier league players. Everybody knows everything in London costs 2 or 3 times what it ought to. London 2012 will be a disaster and beyond the time frame to turn the financial markets around.

* Similarly Bretton Woods Mk II is being disregarded as British bunkum, with an overinflated view of their importance to the World let alone Europe. Neither the French nor German worlds wanted to play the 20th century British game and US President Bush has already trumped it with his own summit.

* Mind you, any government bailouts are probably doing the markets more long term harm than short term good, at the moment. Worst example is the Australian Government splurging cash on people to boost consumerism instead of pursuing lasting infrastructure projects for the nations well-being.

* Also notice how the Carbon Trading Schemes have been put on the back burners (pun intended). These rafts of Eco - Green - Save_the_planet TAXES cannot be afforded by any economies for now. Maybe when these bad, self destructive ideas are dropped, the markets will turn.

Accepting booms and busts are part of the cyclic nature of markets, what do you think might be the catalysts to turn the markets in the next couple of years.?


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