Logo
Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome to ShareScene - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Australia's Sharemarket Community - New Here? Click To Register >

155 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?
marketwinner
post Posted: Nov 4 2017, 02:00 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 425
Thanks: 35


In Reply To: balance's post @ Nov 3 2017, 02:45 PM

Day by day those who are entering work force no longer can afford to buy houses. In addition, renting is also not that easy. Most them are children of Australian who live their for centuries. One of the main reasons for the housing bubble is buying by foreign speculators. It is same in the UK, Canada and New Zealand. What happened to English speaking countries? I don’t think there is house inflation in some European countries like above mentioned countries. When will this house bomb end?



 
balance
post Posted: Nov 3 2017, 02:45 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,506
Thanks: 537


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 3 2017, 02:23 PM

QUOTE
Broken down by region, NSW had the most households in stress with 238.703, followed by Victoria with 250,259, Queensland with 162,726 and WA with 121,393


Interesting and somewhat worrying numbers.

So 238,703 is more than 250,259? I hope their maths and analysis is better.



--------------------
Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 3 2017, 02:23 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,025
Thanks: 1199


In Reply To: Mags's post @ Nov 2 2017, 08:16 AM

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/homeandprop...nvoM?li=AAgfYrC

The number of households impacted are economically significant, especially as household debt continues to climb to new record levels. Mortgage lending is still growing at three times income.

"This is not sustainable."

Broken down by region, NSW had the most households in stress with 238.703, followed by Victoria with 250,259, Queensland with 162,726 and WA with 121,393.

=================

well, not sure about this stats is correct one or not. if so, then we should see a big collapse soon!! unsure.gif

to be honest, i hope it comes , then it can teach those property speculators a good lesson.



 
Mags
post Posted: Nov 2 2017, 08:16 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 328
Thanks: 112


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 1 2017, 04:15 PM

I'm not calling the bust yet. Been caught to often over the last 15 years thumbdown.gif

But that Bloomberg article talking about the population moving north, is certainly also seen here in Adelaide, franchise and business sellers are targeting Sydney, as people are looking to get out, they fall for the idea that housing is 1/3 of the cost in Adelaide, therefore they will be far better off.

What they aren't told is our road network is broken, our health system is buckling, our schools are gang training and our citizens are the southern hemisphere version of their detroit counter parts: Good luck running a profitable, let alone thriving business here.

I honestly believe this housing/wealth inequality that's brewing is the biggest threat to Australia's stability. We are now on our 5th prime minister (6 if you include rudd twice) who have brushed off rising prices as acceptable, even encouraged.

All I know, is if it isn't addressed politically, it will be addressed financially, neither will be pretty, and for those who have borrowed multiples, while on average incomes with no ability to increase their earning power (all but a few great entrepreneurs have that ability anyway) will be caught.

Oh well, not like we haven't been screaming from the roof tops for years. They were warned.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  early birds  marketwinner  
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 1 2017, 04:15 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,025
Thanks: 1199


In Reply To: Mags's post @ Nov 1 2017, 07:58 AM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...atline-ubs-says

Australia's Housing Boom Is ‘Officially Over,’ UBS Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...urfers-paradise

something bigger or just little dip like so many times since GFC??? unsure.gif

IT IS FREAKING AMASSING TO SEE THIS BOOM!!




Said 'Thanks' for this post: Mags  nipper  marketwinner  
 
Mags
post Posted: Nov 1 2017, 07:58 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 328
Thanks: 112


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 1 2017, 05:29 AM

QUOTE
You have a housing bubble if your economy sputters, you have a housing bubble if you reduce immigration.


Our economy isn't sputtering?? Ask the 97% of business which are small if they are sputtering....

As for relying on immigration to keep house prices firm/rising...... If you need new entrants to keep prices firm/rising/return a profit for earlier investors...
then...
its...
a....
classic.......
ponzi scheme..

Ooops. Can't be telling the truth like that.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  nipper  marketwinner  
 


nipper
post Posted: Nov 1 2017, 05:29 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 4,546
Thanks: 1722


The Thoughts of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink
QUOTE
"The biggest problem you have in Australia is the amount of leverage that's in real estate. I don't see a housing bubble.

"You have a housing bubble if your economy sputters, you have a housing bubble if you reduce immigration.

"If you allow immigration you have new entrants in society who are looking for housing. If you are now going to find ways to reduce immigration, which is the big issue in so many countries right now, you may have a change in housing valuations. Right now, I don't see that.

"Household debt is only a problem if household income rises slower than inflation and or you have rising unemployment. Over the last three years or I think the Australian banks have been pretty good at keeping a good loan to value ratios and low default rates."

Read more: http://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/black...3#ixzz4x7ETgyj0



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Mags  early birds  
 
Mags
post Posted: Jul 17 2017, 11:59 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 328
Thanks: 112


In Reply To: triage's post @ Jul 16 2017, 08:20 AM

It is complete madness. Trying to get any idea of the scale of this bubble is next to impossible. I still believe when the collapse comes, we will revisit pre-2000 (plus inflation) prices.

That will wipe out most of Australia's wealth.

Why would I say that????

Because 80% of our wealth is in the $6trillion(iirc) housing/property market......

SMH


Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
triage
post Posted: Jul 16 2017, 08:20 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,539
Thanks: 1381


Here's, possibly, a reminder about how far down the housing bubble rabbit hole (?) we are:

The Seattle Times has out a graphic boasting about how Seattle has the most construction cranes in the US. In a city of less than 700k residents (or a metropolitan area of close to 4m) it has 58 cranes whereas the metropolitan colossus of New York, which I think has over 20m people, reports only 18 construction cranes. So yes using that metric, housing construction in the home of Amazon and Starbucks appears to be booming relative to other US cities. All up it seems that there are less than 300 high-rise construction cranes in the US, which has a population of more than 300m. All very interesting I suppose. But how does that compare to Australia's high rise construction scene?

Well the Fin Review reported in April of this year that the number of operating cranes in Australia was slightly down from last year. Here are the figures for each major city: Sydney, 334; Melbourne, 146; Brisbane, 81; Gold Coast, 30; Perth, 24; Canberra, 19; Adelaide, 15; Newcastle, 4; Hobart, 1 for a national total of 654 cranes.

Does anyone seriously believe that a developed nation of about 24m people has a fundamental need for the construction of high rise buildings at more than twice the clip of a developed nation with 13 times more people? Canberra has more construction cranes than New York?? You are friggin serious??? I can only think that what the yanks call a construction crane and what we call a construction crane are two different things...

http://ritholtz.com/2017/07/where-the-cranes-are/

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/crane-total...20170408-gvgy29



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Mags  db76  nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 1 2017, 08:56 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 4,546
Thanks: 1722


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ces-are-falling

my!



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


155 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareScene.com, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING