Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?

[Dave_vic_ozz]

In Reply To: sette's post @ Nov 9 2012, 01:34 PM

Bullish yes,

Looking at everything. Corner house close by so I can put an 8 car garrage on it that looks like a unit. Convert it to a house and flog them both off after I'm too old to care or the wife forces me to live in it.

Never enough space. House prices doing nothing. All good.

[sette]

Dave,
Firstly welcome back.
How did you guess my previous post was about you?
I mentioned how I had missed your posts and how optimistic and reassuring they'd been....normally if i were down, I always looked for your posts as a boost.

You asked about industrial property in our neighbourhood? Will I be able to start my build there?
I see you've changed your Avatar....does that mean you'll be more bullish and optimistic than normal ?

[Dave_vic_ozz]

Sette,

Can you please organise a few factories to come up cheaply before Christmas? Close to home would be good too.

Dave

[sette]

..

[flower]

In Reply To: triage's post @ Nov 9 2012, 09:41 AM

I've endured a real mamahuhu market, no great pain inflicted but no material gain made either

Did you realistically expect anything else as the outcome?

Even in the West the great divide between those able to afford mortgages and high rents and those who are totally excluded from decent housing widens, which is understandable since real wages for the average employee hardly increase, whilst the cost of living soars what ever any government tell us.

Only two things can happen in the end: Either ordinary wages jump at the same time the cost of living eases, OR housing falls in price until the average house becomes affordable to the average wage earner.

[triage]

This chart from goldman sachs pretty much sums up the last few years for me from an investment perspective.

Some serious crashes have been suffered and some serious gains have been made in various housing markets around the world but here in Oz where my focus has been...I've endured a real mamahuhu market, no great pain inflicted but no material gain made either. Sort of makes me question why I've bothered really...

http://twitter.com/pkedrosky/status/266651...6920576/photo/1

[veeone]

A leading international strategist says Australian house prices could fall by 15 to 20 per cent in the next 12 to 18 months.

Investec Asset Management strategist Michael Power said while Australian property prices had fallen six per cent since 2010, he expected them to fall further in the next 18 months to two years.
'We're not seeing anything like the US, Irish or Spanish property bust here,' the South African-based strategist told a business lunch in Sydney.
'But I think over the next 18 months it could go down by double digits, 12 or even 15 (per cent). A 15 to 20 per cent (fall) would be my outside downside over the entire period.'
Dr Power said according to the The Economist Property Index, Australian residential prices were among the highest in world and had long seemed particularly elevated, something which eventually 'catches up with you'.
'When you see what Australia has done (in relation to property prices) you have to ask yourselves, you may be exceptional, but how exceptional are you,' he said.

Mr Power said recent falls in retail sales across the country were another indication property prices would fall.
However unlike the devastating property bubble bursts in the US, Ireland and Spain, Australia was buffered by low unemployment, and had 'real' interest rates compared to the zero or even negative rates in some countries.
'There's more protection on the downside here than the US or Spain or Ireland property burst,' he said.
Dr Power also did not think there would be any large increases in inflation in Australia in the near future.
But, he did warn that if property prices slid then Australian banks may be affected because they had borrowed money overseas to fund local mortgages.

Australian household debt was also very high which would only get worse if housing prices fell.
'Your level of debt is one of the highest in the world as a percentage of incomes which is fine if everything is going fine but will turn against you if there's a real problem,' he said.
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/20..._20_794342.html

[balance]

I note the NSW govt has doubled the 1st home owners grant to 15000 . New homes only.

[balance]

In Reply To: kiril's post @ May 1 2012, 08:42 AM

Clearly property is suffering but not far from me a new record was set a few weeks ago. Agree with Mungo, subsidies just bugger things up and are illusory in their benefit.

[Mungo]

Wow, finally someone in the MSM has twigged and allowed to tell the story, as I have stated previously - whenever a Govt subsidizes any goods or service - the prices will rise. Let free markets prevail and cut our taxes by stop interfering in the markets with our hard earned dollars. We can spend those dollars a lot better than any Govt.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/homeb...v-1226367483895