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Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?
triage
post Posted: Jun 13 2018, 07:46 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jun 13 2018, 12:47 PM

Here is a link to Martin North's latest youtube post. Except for the beige shirt, his presentations are cool, calm and rational, and are not the sort of analysis and interpretation I've found elsewhere (often youtube commentators on housing are deadset dickheads - apparently that is how you make the big bickies in the world of youtube). According to the survey results that he presents the confidence of Australian households is going from bad to worse even though most people still think they are getting wealthier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9eE_p12Xgk




--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 13 2018, 12:47 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jun 13 2018, 08:43 AM

And here's a real test of whether the lobby groups will allow governments to rein in support for the housing bubble. The Qld government announced in its budget that it is cutting its first home owners scheme grant from $20k to $15k. I'm not sure why they did that (FHOS was always a bad idea anyway because the handout goes straight onto the price of the property being bought so its just money for old rope for the vendor) but in any case the usual suspects have predictably gone crazy with indignation.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/q...612-p4zl26.html




--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 13 2018, 08:43 AM
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In Reply To: balance's post @ Jun 12 2018, 07:26 PM

Mr b - I read somewhere that in one of the major banks in the last couple of years they were knocking back on average 5% of property loan applications but in recent months they have been knocking back about 40% of property loan applications. For the time being at least there is a fair dinkum credit crunch in place, and the sector most vunerable I would think are those that are coming in with minimal equity ie your typical first home buyers. Anyway going on past performance the authorities will blink just as soon as the housing/banking lobby start moaning and they will throw mountains of money at the market. We live in an era where there are no consequences...



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
balance
post Posted: Jun 12 2018, 07:26 PM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Jun 12 2018, 06:58 PM

Example of pent up demand. 1st home buyers decreased dramatically during the boom years. I expect that with prices easing and less competition from investors an overseas buyers, 1st home buyers will return to the market. It won't stop the falls but it will prop up the lower end to a degree. The top end will suffer the most.



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Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  early birds  
 
Mags
post Posted: Jun 12 2018, 06:59 PM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Jun 12 2018, 06:58 PM

For the record, I expect prices to hit year 2000 prices, adjusted for inflation.

 
Mags
post Posted: Jun 12 2018, 06:58 PM
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In Reply To: balance's post @ Jun 12 2018, 06:02 PM

Can you explain pent up demand? or Underlying demand??

When ever I hear these terms I screw up my nose.... It's like your mate saying he pays for her company.... No, she's a hooker...

Is there demand or not?
Is it FINANCED or not????

Hell, almost every red blooded male want's a Ferrari: Is that pent up or underlying demand????

It means, FA, because it's not financed.

This economy, locally, domestically, internationally is completely screwed up.

There is no relationship between, price and earning, value and price, risk and reward.

It's a disaster out there.

Chasing return on capital??? These days I'm looking first at return of capital. These bubbles bursting are going to be epic.

 


balance
post Posted: Jun 12 2018, 06:02 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 12 2018, 03:18 PM

It's real EB. Bursting? Slower deflation and stagnation? Too soon to tell. Give it 18 months or so.

Auctions are passing in, buyers are much more circumspect and not just bidding up stupidly. Fewer overseas buyers, fewer investors, tighter money.
There is a heap of pent up demand and immigration is strong, which will likely help to hold prices to a degree. A 10 to 15% decrease in price across the board has been my prediction. In real terms probably a bit more.






--------------------
Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 12 2018, 03:18 PM
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...8-losing-streak

is it start something this time???? or just a blip ?? unsure.gif




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lgrif
post Posted: May 29 2018, 05:16 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 29 2018, 03:58 PM

Hi EB. Yeh something doesn't stack up. Personally I've been expecting the A$ to go lower against the US$ for some months , but it doesn't.
Apparently the market is expecting the Fed to raise int rates at the June meeting, but probably with a "we'll go slow hereafter" announcement.
I'll stick with the view that eventually the A$ will go down, with (after a shortish time lapse) Aussie inflation increasing, whereupon the RBA will try to talk up the A$ for 2-3 months, and then raise rates a bit.
Can't put a handle on whether China will slow down or not atm.



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early birds
post Posted: May 29 2018, 03:58 PM
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy...529-p4zi3c.html

“When all that starts to line up, who cares what’s happening to house prices.


Harper added that the RBA “doesn’t target house prices”, presumably referring to the bank’s three policy mandates of stability in the Australian dollar, the maintenance of full employment and the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.
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if the housing price crash down as many predicted here how RBA be able to do it's "three policy mandates"????? lmaosmiley.gif

what a bs load,

here is someone's comments down below
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Energy up 20%
Insurance up 10%
Food up 8%
Fuel up 10%
New Changhong TV down 5%
Official inflation 1%, something just doesn't add up!
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isn't it hit the nail stuff eh??? lmaosmiley.gif




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