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Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?
early birds
post Posted: Nov 24 2016, 04:09 PM
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In Reply To: mrbear's post @ Nov 24 2016, 11:07 AM

I just like financial stocks for the present time ,no worries and no hassles with tenants not paying,etc ,life is good,cheers mrbear
==============

since GFC aussie's none bank lender never recover their mortgage market share that went to big 4banks mostly till today
judging by big 4 banks balance sheet you will do fine with them.
my take is their share price will range bound. as yield curve steepens it is good to them. but there is big sword hanging their head that is housing price about take a some degree of hit
[don't know how hard and big the hit will be}
for me i will try to buy them low and sell high.
for you Mr bear get nice divys........ enjoy yourself. like you said----LG life is good!! lmaosmiley.gif



 
mrbear
post Posted: Nov 24 2016, 11:07 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 23 2016, 05:59 PM

We all know the prices will correct themselves as they always do but when is the big question though I myself sold our residential properties ,the last one in 2010 and I only have industrial left.

I always play the odds and when you make 700% profit in 17 years time to exit and will never happen again,at least not in my lifetime.

I just like financial stocks for the present time ,no worries and no hassles with tenants not paying,etc ,life is good,cheers mrbear




 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 23 2016, 06:07 PM
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That's what I was going to say, because the banks price off the long end, (as does everything, and why infrastructure, A-REITs, utilities and anything with a long time line has been hit).

But of course other factors at play. Resellers, Chinese miney, speccies



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 23 2016, 05:59 PM
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In Reply To: mrbear's post @ Nov 23 2016, 04:42 PM

checkout US 10 years Mr. bear. it's yield from 1.5% jump to 2.3% within two weeks
this event shows you that interest rate gonna go up very soon as inflation expectation jumped big time
the banks gonna raise interest rate a lot faster than central banks, so they can protect themselfs.{ the GFC still haunting them}
just sit on the fence and watching.......




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mrbear
post Posted: Nov 23 2016, 04:42 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 8 2016, 09:21 PM

The reason it is still going up early birds is that interest rates are at an all time low and until they start to rise you will not see any great falls,cheers mrbear

 
Mags
post Posted: Nov 23 2016, 03:29 PM
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It's all beyond a joke now surely?

 


db76
post Posted: Nov 23 2016, 03:16 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 23 2016, 10:52 AM

Here is another good one from Auckland NZ, as bad if not worse than Sydney.

From a "Lion" of the market.

"Secret to buying Auckland property: 'use parents' house', says super investor"

"Hoy Fong, an Auckland Property Investors Association member and property coach, is encouraging Aucklanders whose parents own houses to use that to get their own homes"

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...jectid=11753446

What will happen when interest rates go up and property values stop rising ?

At some point there will a rush for the exit and property isn't very liquid.

















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the Market is usually Right

I want to say what I think but I shouldn't
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 23 2016, 10:52 AM
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In Reply To: db76's post @ Nov 22 2016, 05:52 PM

I think the cat thinks it's a Lion

QUOTE
While Chinese home buyers have sent prices soaring from Vancouver to Sydney, in this corner of Southeast Asia it’s China’s developers that are swamping the market, pushing prices lower with a glut of hundreds of thousands of new homes. They’re betting that the city of Johor Bahru, bordering Singapore, will eventually become the next Shenzhen.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/201...ut-of-everybody

- something's got to give



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time."
- Dr John Hussman

“If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions.” ― Michel de Montaigne
 
db76
post Posted: Nov 22 2016, 05:52 PM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Nov 8 2016, 06:37 PM

This one bells the cat.

From The Australian Business Review 21/11/16

In the Article developer Mr Triguboff is quoted as saying : - "There is no housing bubble, I promise you"














--------------------
the Market is usually Right

I want to say what I think but I shouldn't

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early birds
post Posted: Nov 8 2016, 09:21 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 8 2016, 08:48 PM

I've never seen this in 30 years. Most booms are over in 18 months and this has lasted four, five years now.
=================
i thought it should stopped two years ago, but i'm wrong to the fact.
so i went for a deeper dig as to why i'm so wrong??
find out that one of the biggest reason is central bankers around world all printing day and night --7/24
that is one of the main reason we have this boom for so long.
i guess we are at or near the point that big bust is coming and no one can stop it this time because central bankers are run out of bullets
only way to cushing this --is to jack up infrastructure .

one thing i couldn't understand is why so many people hate these chinese developers?? let them build more apartments as they like.
that will drive over supply to extreme level, then our kids can afford to buy these units at really cheap price as the boom busted right??




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