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STO, SANTOS LIMITED
early birds
post Posted: May 23 2018, 10:11 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ May 23 2018, 08:30 PM

got stopped out today. seems people don't like the rejection comes so quick ...hmmmmm.




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blacksheep
post Posted: May 23 2018, 08:30 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 22 2018, 10:32 PM

Seems Citi has been telling it's clients to dump STO following the rejection and given STO a SELL rating with a revised target of $5.30 from a previous $7. They argued "the O&G producer is too expensive when considering its $US55 per barrel long term oil price" Seems a bit low, IMHO, especially considering the lofty predictions as to where the oil price will go LT.

Extract from the same AFR article

QUOTE
Last week Morgan Stanley tipped Brent oil will be $US85 a barrel by the end of 2019 and $US90 a barrel by 2020. It previously forecast $US65 a barrel in both 2019 and 2020. It attributed the upgrade to strong global demand and regulatory changes. The long-term price was lifted to $US70 a barrel, from $US65.


SP finished the day down 8.30% @ $5.90/share 2m shares traded after the close

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4:10:44 pm 4:10:44 pm 590 2,006,210 2 $11,836,639 170

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=sto

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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early birds
post Posted: May 22 2018, 10:32 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ May 22 2018, 10:05 PM

so the bid is been rejected atm.

with high oil price, still see STO worth my target of 6.5---6.8. if bid pulls away, then lower end of target 6.50 for short term?? unsure.gif




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blacksheep
post Posted: May 22 2018, 10:05 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 22 2018, 09:26 AM

Santos rejects Harbour proposal and terminates discussions
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180522/pdf/...6x8y4d6qlp3.pdf



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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early birds
post Posted: May 22 2018, 09:26 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 18 2018, 10:25 AM

, Harbour Energy has bowed to the inevitable and lifted its proposed offer price for Santos which now values the Australian oil and gas group at $A14.4 billion compared to around $A13.7 billion last week when the final, binding offer was proposed.

The decision last week by Harbour Energy not to lift the proposed offer price from the existing $US4.98 a share was seen as a joke in the light of the rapid rise in oil prices to their highest levels since late 2014.

The new offer is $US5.21 a share, which is equivalent to $A6.95 a share at an exchange rate of 75 US cents a share, and is at an 11.2% premium to the last close of Santos shares on Friday. That may see it win the support of the Santos board.

Santos shares rose 1.7% to $6.36, so the market remains to be convinced by the higher Harbour price.

A question mark however remains over one condition attached to the higher offer - that Santos increase its oil price hedging this year and next by around 30% or more.

Analysts say that’s because Harbour Energy wants the certainty of cash flows to enable it to meet debt repayments if the offer is successful.

Global oil prices are up around 17% since the first firm price was issued by Harbour Energy in April.

Santos says its independent directors will now consider the new, higher priced offer.

Harbour Energy said it was its best and final offer, meaning no more increases.

"Harbour's 21 May 2018 proposal is 'best and final' and will not be further increased prior to entering into a Scheme Implementation Deed. The Proposal is subject to final confirmatory due diligence and entry into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Santos,” the statement said.
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so, the increased bid is coming at 6.95 AUD. MY 6.50--6.80 price target will be achieved . tongue.gif not bad for a short time frame trading.



 
early birds
post Posted: May 18 2018, 10:25 AM
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There’s doubt that the now binding but still conditional $13.7 billion offer for Santos from US group, Harbour Energy, will succeed because the price hasn’t been lifted to reflect the recent rise in world oil price to around $US75 a barrel.

The price of the key Brent global marker crude has risen from around $US69 to more than $US79 a barrel on Thursday and yet Harbour Energy has not changed its indicative price of $US4.98 a share (around $A6.63).

Santos shares traded $US6.20 yesterday - down around 1.9%. That’s investors telling Harbour Energy that their offer is light on and success is uncertain because of the lower than hoped for price.

It is a final, binding offer and if rejected by the Santos board, Harbour can only turn it into a hostile offer, which would be self defeating.

The fall in the value of the Aussie dollar in the past month has added around $A200 million to the value of the offer, and Harbour seems to be hoping that will be enough.

The Harbour Energy offer though has secured the backing of the target’s pair of Chinese shareholders who control 15% together.

To win the bidder needs the approval of the Santos board because of the way the company is structured, with its base in Adelaide and any bid needing state government approval.

A hostile offer for Santos won’t succeed. Harbour’s final, binding offer follows four unsuccessful offers over the past eight months.

Harbour has reportedly been talking to the Chinese shareholders ENN and Hony and on Wednesday they reached preliminary agreement with Harbour on a deal that would allow them to retain exposure to Santos’ assets.

The terms of the offer have changed. The offer will be in cash for all shareholders other than China’s ENN and Hony, with no fixed Australian dollar component.

The proposal now includes an offer for ENN and Hony to roll over their existing Santos shares into any new Harbour investment vehicle, but it is understood this is unlikely to be a one-for-one trade.
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gambling that increase bid will come...

 


early birds
post Posted: May 17 2018, 12:25 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 17 2018, 11:41 AM

$30/b for oil isn't a sustainable level for many US shale and others in the world, if one dig little will know,
so here we go---bit of Iranian nuke deal that send oil to $70 plus

6.50 ---6.80 for STO looks more likely.



 
nipper
post Posted: May 17 2018, 11:41 AM
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Initial offer clearly opportunistic. Since then, there's talk of oil at $80, 100 or even higher, and not much chatter about $30 a bbl oil.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: May 17 2018, 11:12 AM
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/s...517-p4zftb.html


The initial Harbour offer was valued at about $6.50, but oil prices have risen about 17 per cent since then, leading some analysts to say Harbour would need to raise its offer to $7 a share to succeed. The bid represents a premium of about 5 per cent to Santos' last close, based on the current Australian dollar exchange rate.

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DYOR as always



 
early birds
post Posted: May 17 2018, 11:07 AM
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Shares in natural gas company Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) were up 2% to $6.36 at the time of writing after potential acquirer Harbour Energy lodged a substantial shareholder notice in the company with a 15.1% indirectly-held stake.

A Santos announcement advised shareholders to “take no action” in relation to the Harbour proposal at this time.

But the same announcement reported that “no agreement had been reached” between US energy company Harbour and Chinese gas company ENN Holdings, despite reports in The Australian saying Harbour was working with ENN and Chinese private equity firm Hony Capital to agree on terms to put a formal offer to Santos.

ENN was in a trading halt on the Shanghai stock exchange yesterday in connection with a preliminary agreement with Harbour regarding its intention to acquire 100% of Santos for US$4.98 per share.

All eyes are on Santos as it appears the Harbour Energy bid moves one step closer to completion, and while Santos’ share price is on the up amidst the drama, peers like Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) are also on the gains, with Origin up 1.7% at the time of writing to $9.78.

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i kinda remember i did told someone that STO is worth a lot more than 4 bucks few months ago when it was dogged by it's high debt and other stuff. stock price is on the tears.
look at it now . i saw value in this dog at under 4 bucks that time.



 
 


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