Logo
Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome to ShareScene - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Australia's Sharemarket Community - New Here? Click To Register >

Important Notice For All Members - ShareScene Is Moving

6 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

Energy Sector, Your Views Please!
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 25 2018, 02:50 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,115
Thanks: 2044


In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 24 2018, 09:17 PM


China says 'huge potential' for Australian LNG industry from US trade war
extract
QUOTE
Shanghai | China says there is "huge potential" for Australia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry from its trade war with the United States after imposing tariffs on rival American imports of the important energy source being encouraged by Beijing to clean up pollution.

China has imposed import tariffs on American LNG imports as part of its latest $US60 billion worth of tariffs in response to US President Donald Trump's latest round of tariffs.

A senior Chinese trade official on Tuesday suggested this could benefit Australia and other countries exporting LNG to China.


read more - https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/china-s...20180925-h15tp5



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 24 2018, 09:17 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,115
Thanks: 2044


Article doesn't mention the country China sourced the LNG from

China imports 4.71m tonnes of liquefied natural gas in August
Xinhua | Updated: 2018-09-23 13:5
[quote]BEIJING - China imported 4.71 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in August, up 51.5 percent year on year, the country's customs authority said Sunday.

Total LNG imports in the first eight months reached 32.63 million tonnes, up 47.8 percent year on year, according to the General Administration of Customs.

China surpassed the Republic of Korea to become the world's second-largest importer of LNG in 2017, according to IHS Markit, a global marketing information company.

China's imports of natural gas have grown to meet increasing domestic consumption, primarily driven by environmental policies to replace coal-fired electricity generation.

An industry report says, the country is likely to surpass Japan to become the world's largest natural gas importer by 2019, with imports expected to reach 171 billion cubic meters by 2023, mostly LNG.[/quote]
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201809/23/W...cc775e7b8f.html



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jun 22 2018, 01:24 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,115
Thanks: 2044


BP Statistical Review of World Energy - June 2018
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corpor...full-report.pdf

BP Energy Outlook - 2018
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corpor...utlook-2018.pdf





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 14 2017, 05:20 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,053
Thanks: 1880


World Energy Outlook 2017
https://www.iea.org/weo2017/

QUOTE
Four large-scale shifts in the global energy system set the scene for the World Energy Outlook 2017:
- the rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies,
- the growing electrification of energy,
- the shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, and
- the resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States.

These shifts come at a time when traditional distinctions between energy producers and consumers are being blurred and a new group of major developing countries, led by India, moves towards centre stage. How these developments play out and interact is the story of this year's Outlook

QUOTE
China will account for a third of new wind and solar power installations and 40 per cent of electric vehicle investments up to 2040. Meanwhile, its coal use peaked four years ago and it will cede its role as the driver of global oil demand to India after 2025.

Underscoring the shift is a maturing economy that is moving away from energy-intensive industry, and government policies aimed at cleaning up air pollution that causes almost 2 million premature deaths a year.... Falling costs of renewables also play a role, as solar is expected to become China's cheapest source of new electricity additions, surpassing natural gas by 2020 and coal by 2030.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 22 2017, 02:19 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,115
Thanks: 2044


World Energy Investment 2017
http://www.iea.org/publications/wei2017/?u...campaign=buffer



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
triage
post Posted: Aug 13 2017, 08:58 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,651
Thanks: 1445


Here's some analysis of hydrocarbon demand in the US. The author argues that overall hydrocarbon demand there has peaked about a decade ago and is unlikely to bounce back. He breaks his analysis into coal - he describes coal as being in "superdecline" which I take to mean a structural decline - oil - he says that oil demand has been in a long-term holding pattern - and gas, which he notes is picking up, given how much and how cheap it is in the US (what with fracking and horizontal drilling).

He relies heavily on a point that I've not seen get much emphasis: that much of the "fleet" in the US that uses coal, which I take to mean power stations and systems used to tranport coal, is reaching the end of its economic life and so that infrastructure needs to be replaced, whether it be replaced with a coal based system or a system that uses an alternative energy source, and that on a head to head basis coal loses out. He provides no evidence that this is the case. He says that wind and solar energy is becoming increasingly competitive but gas based systems are more resilient to this competition than coal, partly because the gas "fleet" is much newer and so does not have to be replaced (unlike the coal "fleet").

https://medium.com/@gregormacdonald/us-foss...rn-18dca64427a0

As it happens I used to read Gregor MacDonald's energy blog about a decade ago and at the time I thought his analysis was always more insightful than just about any other's.

There is some evidence that coal is similarly affected even in China and India. Building power stations is a bit like the quote about ice hockey: you skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is now. In a decade will coal be competitive with gas and wind and solar? Probably not, so why would you invest in a coal power station now.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/08/wa...and-doom-adani/

PS. the first couple of commentators on that mb blog are regulars who take the piss, newbies often mistake their comments as genuine.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: balance  Pendragon  
 


nipper
post Posted: Aug 1 2017, 04:06 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,053
Thanks: 1880


QUOTE
US firm APR Energy says it will be able to provide critical electricity grid stability to South Australia by 01 Dec after being chosen to supply a two-step fix for a fragile power grid with a new fast-start power plant initially powered by diesel fuel for the first two years.

South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill announced on Tuesday the state government would buy nine new GE TM2500 aero-derivative turbines through APR Energy to deliver up to 276 megawatts of generation to the grid should extra power be needed.
you don't think Wetherill is being a bit precious/ ideological?? Diesel, but not gas

... ah, but reading on - looks like deisel, then
"the hybrid turbines will then shift to an un-named separate permanent location where they will run on gas." Methinks there is a problem, Houston



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
flower
post Posted: Sep 15 2014, 06:34 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 12,991
Thanks: 1105


In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 8 2012, 05:00 PM

QUOTE
interesting paper - a bit old (June 2012) but some interesting stuff

https://www2.blackrock.com/webcore/litServi...ntId=1111166832
QUOTE A glut of cheap US gas from shale rock has taken the world by surprise, and caused even seasoned energy analysts to completely redo their forecasts.

The global ramifications are huge. If – and this is a big if – the newfound energy can find its way to market, the US could become an energy exporter by 2030.


This publication discusses the boom's impact on energy prices, producers and services. The picture is not simple and things rarely happen in a straight line. This is true for energy as much as anything else

Hi nipper, fancy that -----two years have passed and suddenly observers are getting concerned about the downsides of a stronger USD, growing US shale oil production, and slowing global growth, which will not be helped if the FED really gets serious about raising US rates at the FOMC meeting starting tomorrow US time.

The flipside to any "backing off" raising US interest rates SHOULD be a WEAKENING USD and STRENGHTENING Global commodity prices, including our Energy Sector.

Thursday morning our time might make for very interesting trading in ASX energy stocks
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 




--------------------
Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 8 2012, 05:00 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,053
Thanks: 1880


interesting paper - a bit old (June 2012) but some interesting stuff

https://www2.blackrock.com/webcore/litServi...ntId=1111166832
QUOTE
A glut of cheap US gas from shale rock has taken the world by surprise, and caused even seasoned energy analysts to completely redo their forecasts.

The global ramifications are huge. If – and this is a big if – the newfound energy can find its way to market, the US could become an energy exporter by 2030.


This publication discusses the boom's impact on energy prices, producers and services. The picture is not simple and things rarely happen in a straight line. This is true for energy as much as anything else




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Oct 22 2012, 07:32 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,651
Thanks: 1445


As if in answer to my question as to whether the local energy sector has fallen into a pothole Michael West has an article in today's Sydney Morning Herald about the work done by some cow cocky to show that yes indeed peak demand has. It seems that this farmer, Bruce Robertson from the north coast of NSW, off his own bat has been able to show that at a time that peak electricity demand is actually falling the big energy companies have been bulking up their infrastructure to take advantage of the current pricing systems in place.

QUOTE
Back in May, [Mr Robertson] first said in these pages that the power companies had been ''gold-plating'' their networks. That is, they were deliberately over-spending because they earned a regulated return on the size of their assets. The more they spent, the more they made.Then in June, he outlined how billions of dollars had been earmarked to upgrade the National Electricity Market based on faulty assumptions of demand.

Demand for electricity had been falling since 2008 in Victoria, NSW and Queensland at roughly 1 per cent a year, despite forecast rises of 2.2 per cent a year.

Demand is now 10 per cent below where the industry forecast it would be four years ago. Mild weather, changing consumer behaviour and rising costs have all been factors in this, Robertson says.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-farmer-...1021-27zl1.html

Clearly the journo accepts Mr Robertson's assertions holus-bolus and rejects the energy industry's countering arguments. But this sort of analysis can be totally warped by the timeframes and starting and ending points you use. For instance he apparently uses 2008 as the starting point, which is just before the gfc really started to bite so yes you would expect relatively high electricity demands back then. I am sure the model jockeys in the energy companies could produce heaps of charts and tables showing that the longer term trends support their viewpoint more than it does Mr Robterson's.

But I also accept that companies will react rationally and if they are permitted to "gold-plate" their assets at the consumers' expense then they will. I remember how CSL when it was still a government owned enterprise managed to convince the public servants to pay for a new blood processing facility that was the best in the world, cutting edge, no expense spared but Brian McNamee then cleverly convinced another bunch of public servants to effectively sell that facility to a privatised CSL based on a commercial rate of return, which put a far far lower value on the facility (clever bloke Brian McNamee, more than a match for his regulatory overseers imo).

Interesting stuff I reckon, but as long as the east Asians keep thinking that they have to tie up as much of our gas as they can then I don't think our gas producers will be too badly affected (here's hoping).






--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
 


6 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 3 4 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING