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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Oct 4 2018, 09:33 AM
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Following US bond selloff (higher yields) for longer dated paper, and Aussie bonds (spreads) now gapping, the local currency has been hit.

Nice selection of charts here:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/10/au...t-36-year-lows/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Sep 19 2018, 10:24 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 18 2018, 03:09 PM

thanks Mick.

if RBA hikes rate sooner then i reckon AUD gonna go a lot lower than it's current level---because RBA 's rate hike would be the "last stroke" to aussie's housing price then the domino will pile on real economy that knocks AUD lower. that is my thoughts only
now the trade war between Sam and china is getting worse that will knock off iron ore and other mining stuff .......

RBA at rock and hard place and they craw to this position themselfs. weirdsmiley.gif



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 18 2018, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 15 2018, 01:46 PM

You may well have got out at the right time EB.

From BLOOMBERGS

QUOTE
Australia’s central bank warned on risks to its outlook from U.S.-China trade tensions and weak wages, while reaffirming its next interest-rate move would likely be a hike.

Main Takeaways
“Significant tensions” around trade policy are a “material risk” to the global outlook, it said in minutes of the September policy meeting released Tuesday in Sydney
Unemployment is expected to decline gradually toward 5 percent and wage growth is expected to increase gradually as spare capacity in the labor market is absorbed
GDP growth likely to remain “above potential” through the forecast period and inflation is “likely to increase over time”
The minutes reiterated there was “no strong case” for a near-term adjustment to monetary policy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept rates steady for the past two years as it seeks to play an anchor role in the economy and generate confidence among firms. The strategy is slowly paying dividends as hiring and economic growth strengthen. But like much of the developed world, wage gains and inflation remain limited, and with spare capacity in the labor market still present, that seems unlikely to change rapidly.

A swing factor could be a decline in the currency, currently hovering in the low 70s; a fall into the mid-60s would stimulate exports and hiring and potentially accelerate inflation back to the mid-point of the RBA’s 2 percent to 3 percent target.
The modest depreciation in the Australia dollar was helpful for domestic economic growth”
“Drought conditions in some parts of Australia were expected to result in lower overall rural production and exports,” the RBA said, while noting a record crop was expected in Western Australia. The higher probability of El Nino suggested prospects for rain had fallen in the near term, which was likely to “increase the magnitude of any fall in farm output from the farm sector”
Recent mortgage rate increases by some Australian banks would likely unwind “about half of the decline observed in the average housing loan rate over the preceding year”


The RBA thinks the next rate move is up (what a surprise, they were damn near zero anyway, so the only way is up).

Mick




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early birds
post Posted: Sep 15 2018, 01:46 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 15 2018, 07:51 AM

you know what think Mick??
i guess you just did!! tongue.gif onya



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 15 2018, 07:51 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 14 2018, 09:11 PM

Have you been to visit that Rolls Royce dealer yet?😉



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early birds
post Posted: Sep 14 2018, 09:11 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 13 2018, 01:05 PM

ok, no more waiting.
closed out shorts at 72.00cps

we might have another stab at it late on. tongue.gif



 


early birds
post Posted: Sep 13 2018, 01:05 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 13 2018, 12:51 PM

from TA point of view that 71.40---71.50 is the key level to support AUD, now we have a fake break down on that level.
so for a short term trader close out shorts would be a wise move or discipline move.
but this jump is due to rumours that US going to ask china to talk about trade , so i reckon this issue will go on for some times given that crazy irrational Trump on the helmet
i would give another day {tomorrow is Friday} to see it drops below that key level again.
still holding my shorts but on the age to close it.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 13 2018, 12:51 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 8 2018, 05:57 PM

Todays employment statistics have put a floor under the AUD.
With a much higher full time jobs increase , pressure on wages frowth must surely be starting to build up.
With inflationary pressures from rising energy costs and lower currncy values starting to build,
something is going ro have to give.
Will it be a wages inceease, an increase in interest rates (official or unnoficial), or a black swan event, who knows.
Perhaps the AUD has bottomed out ?
Time to close out the shorts EB??

Mick

ABC News



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early birds
post Posted: Sep 8 2018, 05:57 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 8 2018, 11:50 AM

it will be under 70cps soon from TA point of view.

when it does, then aussie's inflation will be up as most of stuff are come from overseas




 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 8 2018, 11:50 AM
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So, the AUD closes at a smidgen over 71 cents against the USD over night.




From KITCO
QUOTE
Undeniably the most important economic data to be released this month is the U.S. Labor Department’s jobs report which came out today. Economic estimates for new nonfarm jobs for the month of August came in at 190,000. The actual data released today came in above expectations and forecasts revealing that 201,000 new nonfarm jobs were added last month.

These solid numbers are the last and most important data set that Federal Reserve will look at during the next FOMC meeting scheduled to begin on September 26.

Yesterday the CME’s FedWatch tool predicted that there was a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce and implement another rate hike of a quarter percent at the end of this month’s meeting. Today following the release of the jobs report the probability of a rate hike according to the FedWatch tool is now at 99.8%.


Probably of greater significance was the following news

QUOTE
he unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%. The biggest news was higher worker pay. The average wage paid to American workers rose by 10 cents, or 0.4%, to $27.16 an hour. The yearly rate of pay increases climbed to 2.9% from 2.7%, marking the highest level since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009
Big picture: The economy surged in the spring and is still growing rapidly as the fall approaches. Most companies are hiring and layoffs have tumbled to a nearly 50-year low.

Read: Jobless claims fall to 203,000. They haven’t been this low since Dec. 6, 1969

Aside from a shortage of skilled labor, companies say their biggest problem is coping with a spate of higher U.S. and foreign tariffs that have raised the cost of key materials such as steel and lumber and made it harder to obtain supplies.


.


Of course, on the downm nside, the same article as above when on to say


QUOTE
Employment gains for July and June, meanwhile, were revised down by a combined 50,000, the Labor Department said Friday. The government said 147,000 new jobs were created in July instead of 157,000. June's increase was cut to 208,000 from 248,000.


Me thinks there is still a bit of steam left in the climb of the USD.

Mick







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