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Commodities, General discussion of commodities
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 12 2018, 07:32 PM
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Australia plans deal with U.S. on 'critical minerals', hopes to boost its exports
QUOTE
“This week I will sign a letter of intent with my counterpart ... on critical minerals,” resources minister Matt Canavan said at a mining industry event in Melbourne.

“(This) will mean Geoscience Australia and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) will work closely on exploration, extraction, processing and research and development,” he added, referring to the arms of the respective governments that handle minerals exploration.

Australia hopes to supply more minerals to the United States in the wake of the agreement, said Canavan. He expects to speak with U.S. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke on Thursday.

“For 14 of those 35 critical minerals, we are in the top five (holders) of world reserves, so they are the ones we’d like to focus on,” he told press at the Melbourne Mining Club event.

That list of minerals includes lithium used in batteries, along with rare earths such as neodymium, used in industrial magnets, and gallium, used to make semiconductors. It also includes bauxite and alumina, which make aluminum.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australi...s-idUSKBN1OB0J7



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 5 2018, 02:35 PM
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Interesting read - Ivan Glasenberg places a dirty $36B bet: Chris Bryant

QUOTE
With international delegates meeting in Poland this week to debate the unfolding planetary climate emergency, it’s tempting to view the market’s thumbs down on coal as ethical. Glencore talks a lot about the copper and cobalt it will supply for electric vehicles, but it’s made a huge bet on carbon. Some sustainability-minded investors won’t touch Glencore's shares for this reason, but that’s probably not why the coal business has been marked down. Rather, investors worry that high thermal coal prices aren’t sustainable. It’s possible they’re wrong about that. Glasenberg certainly thinks so.

Corporate boards and banks are increasingly unwilling to sanction or finance new coal mines, meaning there’s a dearth of new supply. That’s a huge advantage for miners that refuse to quit the coal game. In particular, Glencore profits from the premium that utilities pay for higher grade coals. With India and China constructing lots of new coal capacity, demand isn’t about to fall off a cliff either, whatever climate campaigners hope.

In the long run, high prices may end up dooming coal, as my colleague David Fickling has argued. But Glencore’s coal business should be a license to print money for several more years. If Glasenberg is right, his shareholders will be swimming in cash, even as our oceans creep higher.

http://www.mining.com/web/ivan-glasenberg-...t-chris-bryant/
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 27 2018, 10:43 AM
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In Reply To: bg99's post @ Nov 27 2018, 06:52 AM

QUOTE
do the opposite then


Probably - or DYOR biggrin.gif Pretty much the same goes for all the other "expert" investing advice. Interesting to read what the "experts" say, but one has to keep in mind their "self interest" in why they say it.



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 27 2018, 08:58 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 26 2018, 09:01 PM

Sounds like 'pairs trading' (rather than predictions)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
bg99
post Posted: Nov 27 2018, 06:52 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 26 2018, 09:01 PM

do the opposite then


Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  blacksheep  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 26 2018, 09:01 PM
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Goldman Predicts Commodities Will Soar in 2019

QUOTE
Here are some of Goldman’s top ideas for next year, as listed in the report:-

Oil: Goldman expects an OPEC supply cut and its announcement will lead to a recovery in prices. It advises going long on short-dated Brent.

Oil: There’ll be a return to backwardation. The bank recommends selling an $50 a barrel December 2019 WTI put option, which is currently worth $7.25 a barrel as of Friday
.
Gas: The recent rally in winter contracts, driven by a cold start to the winter, has dislocated the April 2019 natural gas contract, leaving it significantly backwardated versus October. The bank says this spread will continue to narrow.

Gold: The market has priced in 10 out of 12 of the Federal Reserve’s hikes that the bank expects, and the strong dollar trend is seen reversing. “If U.S. growth slows down next year, as expected, gold would benefit from higher demand for defensive assets,” Goldman said, adding that there may be additional support from central bank buying.

Agriculture: Go long Chicago soybeans, short on corn, bank says. “The upcoming G-20 talks in Argentina are likely to be as important to the near-term direction of U.S. grain prices as summer weather normally is,”

Goldman says. “Our view on the likely outcome of the meetings for the ongoing trade war (most likely a pause, but with some chance for normalization) is more optimistic than currently priced in by markets.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-oil-gold-climb



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 15 2018, 06:45 PM
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Commodities Are Sending a Distressing Signal
Professor Oil and Dr. Copper are suggesting all is not well with the global economy.

By Komal Sri-Kumar
November 15, 2018, 6:00 PM
QUOTE
Oil markets are sending a powerful message. After reaching a four-year high in early October, the price of crude has collapsed by more than 25 percent. This move is about more than just the ups and down of global supplies and whether OPEC and other producers can adjust. More importantly, it seems to speak to waning demand, which is worrisome.

These developments suggest the synchronized growth that the global economy has enjoyed in recent years is likely to be replaced by a generalized slowdown. Just take a look at the data out of Japan and Germany this week, which showed the world’s third- and fourth-largest economies contracted in the third quarter.


QUOTE
Oil Crashes Hard
Crude tumbles more than 25 percent as supplies soar and demand declines in bad combination

Dr. Copper's Feeling Sick
Prices for the base metal are also signaling weaker global demand and economic growth


read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/...nd=premium-asia



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 23 2018, 10:48 AM
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Posts: 5,115
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Titanium: Boeing, Airbus & Safran positive on aerospace outlook

QUOTE
Major aerospace companies were positive for the market’s outlook, with airframe manufacturers Boeing and Airbus both boasting order backlogs of around nine years at present, which will also require substantial deliveries from engine companies such as Safran, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce.

Jeffrey Carpenter, director of aerospace materials and standards at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, outlined Boeing’s forecasts for the next 20 years. Carpenter noted that world airline traffic was expected to grow by 4.7%py over this period, with airlines requiring 42,700 new airplanes, comprising mainly single-aisle jets. Carpenter said that titanium remained the metal of choice in airframes but that its high cost was limiting additional use in this application.

Airbus also pointed out that titanium costs were a challenge for the company since the introduction of its titanium-loaded A350 extra widebody aircraft, with Laurent Jara, VP of metallic material procurement at Airbus, commenting that it planned to address titanium costs through 2019/2020 via “competitiveness challenges” and buy-to-fly ratio optimisation. Jara noted that Airbus would launch the call for titanium tenders for the next 10 years at the end of 2018. Current geopolitical challenges might influence the company’s sourcing policies, according to Jara.

Engine maker Safran also pointed to the higher use of titanium in its LEAP engine, which contains some 30% more titanium than the older CFM56-7 model. The main titanium parts for the LEAP are the fan disc and fan blade leading edge, the fan hub frame and LPC vanes and blades, the fan frame shroud, strut and shroud link, the bearing housing and supports, and the kit engines.

Thierry Viguier, VP materials purchasing for Safran, noted that titanium costs remained high compared to other materials – illustrating that aluminium plate was around 10 times cheaper than titanium plate at present. He pointed to the potential use of additive manufacturing in jet engines, commenting that casting of complex titanium parts remained challenging. Viguier believes titanium powders could be used extensively in AM if they reach the market price.


read more - https://roskill.com/news/titanium-boeing-ai...ospace-outlook/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 14 2018, 11:34 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 14 2018, 11:23 AM

Material Matters: Energy, Titanium And Zinc
Commodities | Oct 11 2018
QUOTE
A glance through the latest expert views and predictions about commodities. Energy; mining outlook; leading indicators; titanium dioxide; and zinc.

-Tight crude market requiring expenditure on exploration and production
-Rebound likely in metal prices, although JPMorgan neutralises bullish outlook
-Leading indicators signal slowing global growth
-Sentiment on titanium dioxide more neutral amid softer demand in China
-Surge in zinc prices unlikely to last through 2019

By Eva Brocklehurst


read more - https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2018/10/1...anium-and-zinc/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 14 2018, 11:23 AM
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A look at how metals, commodities and assets have performed to date in 2018
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/...eightmobile=580



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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