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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
nipper
post Posted: Aug 28 2018, 09:44 PM
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In Reply To: Livas1's post @ Aug 28 2018, 06:20 PM

yep, the alt.story keeps on coming:
QUOTE
The market appeared to be waiting for a catalyst, and they got the biggest catalyst of all on Friday night when in a lyrical speech US Fed boss Jay Powell said: "We have seen no clear sign of an acceleration above 2 per cent" in inflation.

Cue new highs.

Powell's comments matter so much because a sudden and unexpected outbreak in long-quiescent inflation is probably one of the clearest and most present dangers to this epic Wall Street bull run.

and
QUOTE
Why are wages so weak when unemployment is so low? That's one big question facing central bankers at Jackson Hole.

and
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The simmering trade tensions between the United States and China could boil over to a full-blown multilateral trade war and trigger a devastating global recession, KPMG economists are warning.

and the perennial favourite:
QUOTE
A narrowing gap between short-term and long-term borrowing costs could be signalling heightened risk of a US recession, researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said in a study published overnight.

The research relies on an in-depth analysis of the gap between the yield on three-month and 10-year US Treasury securities, a gap that like other measures of short-to-long-term rates has narrowed in recent months.

Several Fed officials have cited this flattening yield curve as a reason to stop raising interest rates, since historically each time it inverts, with short-term rates rising above long-term rates, a recession follows.

(actually, that's reversing things ...... when LT < ST, a recession has subsequently been observed, in a large number of instances )

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/pub...economic-letter

... Further (Finally, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, it is important to remember that the predictive relationship in the data leaves open important questions about cause and effect.) !!









--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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Livas1
post Posted: Aug 28 2018, 06:20 PM
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Well the S&P 500 at new highs is a surprise to me given the melt up in January.

Anyway here we are.. we have the benefits of the tax changes in the numbers now and rising interest rates and labour costs are surely going to eat into US corporate profit margins.

A couple of dents in the FAANGs this reporting season hasnt swayed the Nasdaq from hitting new highs aswell.

Whats gonna cause a move the other way??? Surely its a change in sentiment.

Its risk on, until its not....



--------------------
LIVE BIG
Embrace the moment!
Life is a journey not a destination
The only thing that moves markets is surprise...
"The wisest men follow their own direction" - Euripides
People sell stocks for many reasons, but they buy for only one...

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nipper
post Posted: Jun 10 2018, 04:07 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jun 10 2018, 12:18 PM

QUOTE
was just watching the hits .... on the thread .. and strange ...
not really. You're saying something different, and argued well. In this age when it's all spin and 'push' agendas, how refreshing to have someone call it as they see it.

Here's to heterodoxy



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jun 10 2018, 12:18 PM
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HI,
was just watching the hits .... on the thread .. and strange that over 1,000 reads of which 400 last two days ....

this to one side.
USA his imbalance of wealth is extreme v very very mild rest of world.
USA the likes of Mr Bezos .... Mr Apple ... Mr GAtes and a long list of others have avoided ... !00% avoided taxes or just the allowed missing the first 15% of personal taxes via loopholes in the USA system.

I cannot stomach any longer even the image of GAtes or Buffett ... when corporate wise the companies they run or have under their wings pay less than 10% overall in tax ... along with a disgraceful lack of payment of tax to operate USA. If you were born disabled ... Neither Gates or any of these clowns pay a cent ... have ever PAID a cent for either a pension for those born ill NOR paid anything towards their upkeep medically. ITs all paid for via the lower 80%. Its now 5 years the USA cant find a frigging Ambassador to Australia and whilst my suggestion of Cindy was a a joke ... to highlight her plight, the fact the man with little hands took the one he chose for ambassador to OZ ... an Admril .... then he was NOT coming here but going to Korea is and was a again a joke.
I have a few concerns and cant do anything about Trump. If Juliani his lawyer claiming Kim Ill Jung got on hands and knees to plead for the Singapore meeting be NOT cancelled ... again I suspect a lie on both Trumps part and his lawyer ... because dealing with mentally injured egomaniacs and narcissists .... my concern would be if it were actually TRUE ... Totally out of line for prior and previous behavior is what speaks volumes. All of them in the meeting both sides clearly are well short of even a full bag of marbles / .... but when one nutter does something so out of character to previous behavior ... then I believe is time to start worrying. Having been in markets for a long time the stuff out of North Korea and especially the latest young in-bread has been disturbing to say the least. Placing values or even common logic or decency upon them or expecting it .... is very much a mistake with the seriously mentally ill. Both parties at this meeting are, but one is laying down ... quite out of character if the lawyers claims are to be believed and it just sticks out as a red flag to me. Hopefully .... since Kim has many doubles .... the real one goes ... and second is what LUGGAGE he brings and what suitcase. Maybe just being ... even more paranoid than either of them, but then again, not so long ago ... right next door the brother of the person taking this meeting was attacked by what quite clearly were agents of North Korea with bloody nerve gas and killed. All this sounds like out of a James Bond novel the latter part ... I am just hoping the strange very accomadative behavior which is out of character for the last 10 years of his rule .... is NOT something awful. He is after all the leader ... with the worlds worst haircut who decreed all his people had to get the same cut.

weirdsmiley.gif
As to Trump running off from the G7 ... or G6 ... I do have a solution for the G6 to go forward. SInce Apple, google, facebook and a host of other USA based tech companies for the past .... 20 years have paid NO ... or little tax to the G6 .... let alone any nation on the planet ... a suggestion is that they ONLY be allowed to make sales within their little tax structures .... the fictional nations inside Bermuda or Ireland or Luxembourg and all trades done with G6 nations not have a tariff but a transaction tax which represents in the case of Amazon who rarely pays nations GST sales tax a sales tax ... plus a profit tax and I propose all sales of google and APpple and so on be hit with the 25% transaction tax. I WAS GOING TO SUGGEST JUST SAY no .... ban them outright ... but that wouln't be fair .... Anyhow Good luck to the MAd Hatters tea party In Singapore ..... what a joke ... I hope the real KIm turns up and he hasn't packed his special suitcase to impress Mr Trump. This meeting could go on not just for days, but years, as both have a lot to say ... not to each other but about themselves and since neither will listen to the other ... it could just go in circles for years and years, gifts of varying sized envelopes and ... gloves ... and then maybe a military parade since Trump loves them .... but even his own military will not march for him, Maybe Kim Ill Jung could introduce Mr Trump to a few basketball players since Mr Trump couldn't get them even to come to the White House. THis ... plot ... and Mr Trump and his actions fascinate and fill me with horror. This time however .... maybe they get stuck in a time loop and Mr Trump remains in Singapore for many years and is removed from causing MORE harm. One can only hope Last point quickly on Toms question ... stimulus in the USA now in 2018 ... is HIGHER than any ever seen pre 2003 .... EVER ... we have interest rates about 2% too low ... govt deficit at 5% of GDP and we then have government with taxes STRUCTURALLY to low to sustain even basic health services. We all know baby boomers started to hit age 65 in 2010 .... and if NOT prepared each year till 2030 ADDS more in ters of numbers and costs ..... So the USA ... for 20 years I had been expecting some late AUSTERITY measure like the EU .... or even attempt .... instead its done the oppose .... GIVEN a 1 trillion tax break .... when the OPPOSITE was needed a hike of about the same in terms of tax.USA economy too fragile for the latter .... then again taking it from Mr GAtes or Buffett or Bezoz or Apple has ZERO impact on economy and same on spending ....

giving a $1,000- to 100 million people .... a 100 billion dollars ... to people assured who will spend it ... is the TOTAL opposite of drip down economics which takes it from 100 million and gives it to 10,000-- who are so unlikely to spend it ... it absurd.
As to my pointing out that DEATH results from deliberately cutting healthcare .... from the extremely poor ... very few will touch ... it is however a scientific fact .... FACT that the USA has dome this for now over 30 years at the cost of 40 plus million lives and life expectancy of the lower 80% being about the same as bloody NORTH KOREA


IN the simplest form, USA hospitals are in dire straights in virtually every state. Cutting spending by 25% .... which s what MR Trump just tried ... and will try again and again ...

For a customer ... without insurance .... reliant upon Medicaid ... which just got cut 25% ... and the hospital has to shut ... what does one do with a simple treatable emergency ? Asthma attack upon your kid .... treatable with a nebulizer and maybe some steroids ... cost less than $5- .... but NO hospital ... no treatment ... emergency attacks once every 6 months .... am I being even hysterical in calling this person and the Republicans and rest who ushered this cut in.... monsters ? Murderers ? Shit Trumps 2018 budget assures that my 100 million total is hit likely even 120 million Americans ..... Structurally ... different from every other OECD nation the USA has decided NOT to tax the rich ,,, and have a two tiered life expectancy. Scientifically arguing this is absurd ... because already USA has counties with life expectancy up near 90 and then a lot down near 60. If I sifed the top 10% in each county .... of rich and poor .... I am sure the gap will be about 35 years life expectancy difference.
Good luck in the Summit .... its like what did one genocidal maniac say to the other one ? As soon as r Trump can explain what difference their is in his actions of slashing funding to ... a WW2 camp guard ... I may retract that view. Unlikely as humanity this time is on the cusp, not the market .... humanity. Being politically correct will do nothing to save the mainly non white and if their white their likely under educated people in the USA who are about to undergo .... well the quickest part of the plan. It took 35 years to do the first 45 million, removing medical cover and pensions, will ensure the next 45 occur within 25 years and the third 45 million a mere 15 years latter. Sorry did the modelling whilst thinking .... and this is pretty much USA alone. Other nations ... no matter how we may feel about the rich getting more ,,, the numbers ... the government taxing at 40% of GDP in the EU and most other nations has been RISING 2-3% over the last 35 years. The USA, post 2018 budget .... 21 or 22% of GDP down .... by 4-5% ....

When a nation does NOT tax and save for education and welfare to take care of the NEW fact that we live till we are 80 not 40 ..... and does so at a rate of 8-9% v the rest of the word as it is RIGHT NOW >... up by 3% post this absurd USA tax cut ....
EIther we extract fair tax from these companies ... as NON USA nations ... or we perish ... early and in ignorance like the USA.
It is SIMPLE ... IN PLAIN sight .... this issue. ALL ELSE is BESIDES the bloody point. A deliberate distraction as OBAMA was. The fact that the USA instead of doing the right thing, has doubled down ... and done the wrong thing cannot be changed. I can, and will object to a genocide .... on a scale never seen before and NOT apologies for this as it is a factual event, form the falling life expectancy in the USA to the massive rises in suicides which soon given past experiments likely goes exponential .... to over 65's outcomes already being MINUS 5 year v expected but the CDC is holding off till 2020 to tell the USA !!

Oh well time to go and watch the MAd Hatters Tea Party ... hoping for the best .... but seriously its besides the point when already announced plans have another USA based tax cut on the agenda late 2018. Maybe Trump is going there to get help and tips on how to improve his healthcare system to be just like his new friend Kim ? Since life expectancy under both regimes for the lower 80% will be the same .... what a great idea.
take care



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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Mags
post Posted: Jun 6 2018, 07:29 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jun 6 2018, 05:39 PM

QUOTE
I am confused where to go


I'm on the same page as you Mark, but my big belief, is that this inequality is the real risk, the real threat to the stability we enjoy/exist through.

I read an article the other day: Bezos's wealth has been increasing at a rate of USD$257 million.... per day.
A warehouse (sorry... fulfilment centre) worker at amazon earns in one year, the same as Bezos does, but in 11 seconds.

We hear stories of workers collapsing from exhaustion in these fulfilment centres: They don't have time for toilet breaks: They wear incontinence pads. They work the wrong side of the modern 40 hour week... They then get taxed on their income, and pay stamp/vat taxes when they spend it.

Mean while Amazon pays nothing in taxes: Or even worse, bribes the government, while bragging they don't pay taxes: See Mishtalk Blog Piece

There's 550,000 reasons (staff) that Bezos should be worried.

This is obscene. I pick on Amazon because it's in the news, and the numbers come to mind: But the big boys are all the same:

Walmart employees receive some $6billion in welfare handouts as their wages are so poor: So who's sponging off the government?
The workers?
Or Walmart???

When you step back and ask "If walmart aren't paying their workers enough for a basic living... surely it's Walmart that's the sponge???"

Terrorism, religion, credit crunches, solar flares... etc.... These don't worry me near what this inequality does. Stock markets boom and bust, houses rise and fall... but if we see a mass uprising from this inequality, who knows what will happen.

But sadly, the bad men also rule the military........


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kahuna1
post Posted: Jun 6 2018, 05:39 PM
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In Reply To: tombeet's post @ Jun 2 2018, 03:38 PM

Hi Tom,
sorry the delay. Thinking, reflecting and wondering. The correct or real answer will take some time. Looking back and seeing that since 1996 I have made 3,000 odd contributions to various sites ... most taking many hours of research, not all to do with finance ... have come to a crossroads. Whilst I have 100% belief in sceintific valuation measures .... soo too with marekt cycles .... its strange to be able to see clearly yet again, in reality .... what a bloody waste of time it is.
Trump ... a distraction ... a deliberate one to cover ... actions of a greedy group of mainly white little men who run the USA and its Oligarchy via a joint belief thay are above the law, above paying taxes either corporate or personal and a complete disdain and utter contemp for all those not in their crowd.
Not anti rich, far from it. Most even Gates and Buffett would still have 30 billion if they paid taxes vs the 100 billion they do ... the issue is the missing 80 or so which ... Gates and Buffett have both taken care of the family and thanks for NOT paying that extra 20% tax year in year out ... it vastly added to their piles. For others, they pay NO tax ... like Trump .... others actively avoid it ... like AMazon and Microsoft and Google ... and in the meantime the life expectancy of a NON rich NO WHITE person in the USA has gone backwards in the last 35 years despite most OECD nations gaining 10 years average oveall.
THis tax .... now being pushed overseas ... is there so the rich live with ability to pay for healthcare till they are 90 ... if not ... your poor and suck shit you live till 60. No one has as yet told the 75% of Americans . Trump actually signed the worlds largest genocide order with the 2018 budget ordering healthcare spending be SLASHED ... at a federal level. It did NOT occur his order .... baby boomers retiring alone is adding 4% each year in the USA to the cost ... add 5% inflation ... and then Trump ordering a 14% cut BEYOND that ...
thats 23%.
Simple question is, when you go to a hospital in the USA without health coverage ... or insurance ... and they refuse treatment when your sick ... WHAT HAPPENS ?
Think about it.
USA life expectancy numbers despite some seriously fictional rubing are going backwards and the fact that 500,000 middle aged white non collge educated people are dying each year post 2013 .... EACH YEAR >... is just atiny subset of the last 35 years of drip down economics.
Where things go from here ? Longer term ? Well I went thru the math and 100 million plus loss of life in the USA alone .... but markets ? Already we see middle class retail in tatters as the tax burden the RICH do not pay anything for .... falls to them and their ability to pay is gone ... and wages fall further and further from CPI, the next few years is either they die out ... distracted by the likes of TRUP and the Bubble arsed KArdashians ... or whatever .... or some miricale occurs.
I vote option two .... but sadly ... being set in stone the total I scientifically can prove of lives lost due to shitty healthcare and tax cuts for rich is currently 45 million .... impossible to stop pre 60 million and likely .... close to 100 million no matter what. What however is at stake is vast pressure being applied to the OUTSIDE USA .... so this globally could cost the whole game.
Stupid question but APple had no onterest in paying any tax at 35% or 25% so even at 21% what does it wish to pay ? ZEro ... same for many of the same ilk Google, Koch Industires, Microsoft and BErkshire HAthawy group along with the same old crowd.
DO I wish for my fellow Australians .. or even Kiwi or UK or UE friends to follow the USA ?
The behaviour of the USA is right now nothing short of extremely abusive to all and sundry ... some its trade wars .. some its being treated like a dick and having to swallow it ... MR TUrnbull had to find out my fictional new USA ambassador Cindy had met MR Trump and he threw a tantrum ... so th proposed NEW USA ambasaador Admiral Hiratio Hornblower ... a well known USA Admiral one who has driven a desk and not hit any other ships for over 30 years ... too offence to CIndy and my objection to the death order which TRUMP ACTUALLY signed cutting her food stamps but USA congress did not pass .... so NOW we dont have HH Admril HH ... who used to go weak at the knees anyhow at the sound of an alarm and Australia ... in our place as always ... has not had an ambassador for nearly 4 years.
When your being abused ... whether by some prick selling a good product ... Yes apple has that ... but avoids tax ... the correct response from extreme abuse is NO contact and in the case of Apple ... Microsoft ... Amazon and Google is barring them or putting a 25% TAX on any transaction .... and as for the USA political side itself ... when you have a person elected who promised his people over 200 times NO cutting healthcare .... and signed the 2018 budget slashing in reality spending by 24% in real terms ...

FACTUAL ....

that the USA media choose not to call it Genocide .... or Democide .... does NOT mean I do.
If I placed a plastic bag over Trumps head for 100 seconds every time he talked or tried to .... he would be dead within an hour. This is a scientific experiment that needs no verification even from the stupidest of us out there.

If I ordered Federal health care spending slashed by 24% in real terms .... and followed the plight of a person with say stage 3 cancer but no healthcare, how would you think a 24% cut in already stretched funding will do for their eventual care ? Do we add 10 seconds to that plastic bag over the clowns head between times he wishes to speak ?
in the case of Healthcare, if I were to take such action, whilst I may ignore individuals, the fact is that MILLIONS more would die likely much younger and in extreme pain than should have. This is ALREADY factual in the USA life expectancy in relaity sub 75 in 2018 if absurd adjustments removed .... if your rich ... you live close to 90 .... making the life expectancy say of th lower 80% not say 73 but close to 67 .... v 89 .... 22 years .... a joke that gap. America officially claims the life expectancy gap fr native Americans again due to dodgey statistics ...is a mere 4 years .... in 1970 it was 24 years .... post 1970 funding fell by half v GDP ... and they feed the stupid ... a 4 year gap.
I do feel very much like being able in 1932 to see Hitler and the impact and his plans ... sadly however ... USA has destroyed its middle class already ... its political system ... its media ... seriously ... did any of those turds miss the budget cuts in the 2018 budget ? A disgrace ....

I have given a considerable amount of my time, for free ... to various causes ... not just markets ... some suicide help lines some other chat groups to help others ... down and out ... and here, sadly, I find myself having translated the economic statistics and impacts of policies of some and come to the conclusion that ... here in 2018 a monster ... a group of them and TRUMP IS IRRELEVANT he is just the latest distraction so the Oligarchy in the USA .... with no savings for the elderly or baby boomers or their pensions NOR their healthcare .... DESPERATELY in need of funds along with the very poor and infirm ... the upper class in the USA decided to award another 1 trillion tax cut to themselves when in reality the next 20 years likely needs 50 trillion more saved.
MR GAtes and Buffet paying 15% tax v their secretary on the personal side ... HER at 35% ... that 20% tax on 100 million pr year income minimum .... then add the same amount for not paying 35% corporate tax but under 10% .... all in reality washing their hands of any blame .... meanwhile healthcare in the USA is 20% of GDP and it mere covers at best 80% of them. So how peverted their system is ... at full cover at today's rates would take 25% of GDP to fund. Lucky Mr Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway is a massiv medical insurer ....
NO ONE can afford healthcare at that cost ... 4 times the OECD best average ... BUT THE USA COMES dead ... last post 1980 in life expectancy results not of just the top 20 .... BUT last out of the top 100!!

Nothing like a democracy with no bought and paid for politicians, a pathetic media, educational and institutions bought and paid for ... the police ... ones meant to prevent this ... the example of the USA fed Reserve board with 7 members all from a sect of economists who believe in the flat earth all clearly sponsored and paid for by one investment bank and all from a religious cult that represents less than 2 % of the population. NO ... all some weird coincidence. That this religious cult only employs its own members is self evident .... only cares for its own members again evident when one looks further afield and the utter contempt they have for fellow human beings especially those of Native American or African American and even Latino or Asian is again evident when NOT a single one of the MINORITY 50% PLUS they represent ... of America ... NOT one ... NOT ONE SINGLE One and I mean NOT MALE OR FEMALE .... I mean not one of any minority race made it past mid level bureaucracy in the USA in various departments in the past 35 years.
They had a token .... Female African American President .... but sadly when the Forbes rich list is read the 3 Latino billionaires with ONE ... ONE single sole African American .... OPRAH speaks volumes.
Sadly sleepy gas has been sprayed on these people ... chasing phantom menaces ... or things that are irrelevant in the extreme and whilst say 5 accidental African American deaths of course matter .... did you know your REAL life expectancy, correctly and scientifically measured has gone BACKWARDS .... since 1982. Meanwhile most have gained close to 10 years life, African Americans life expectancy ... all of them .... every single one as a group lost over 12 years v OECD outcomes ....



Mormons with 3 % of the population .... if they were in power I am sure their would be a revolt. Clearly people with NO empathy as this cult of economic flat earth religious fruitcakes .... certainly look after their own .... but NEVER EVER should be in any majority where they decide the fate of others. Sadly we have the USA treasury, socisal security, medicare and Medicaid being run by them along with he USA fed up till 2018 when the rats started jumping ship ....
Obviously I feel strongly about this and a mountain I can never surmount .... not alone ... possibly not without a lot of help. You may note ... in the midst of this a fund started up using the exact principles of valuation I have on here .... and have been sprouting since 1996 ... it also actually pulls out during cycles to some extent .... run by not me ... but a brilliant man for the first 5 years and now he runs the LIC side ... which even morningstar cannot work out its return . A return that thankfully others now 10 years into this has performed returning TWICE .... the Market return. More than TWICe the return of Buffett who, whilst when I started I was a big fan of in 1996 ... as I learnt more and shared in varius posts, Buffett ... whilst VALUATION is the only way to go .... His methods vary from my own beliefs and those of my favorite fund manager who wishes to remain nameless.
Imagine being in an elite group of less than 100 fund mangers .... up in the top 10 out of 10,000- and even the ratings agency who gives out gongs for fund manger of the year has NOT even worked out that how seriously stupid they are in reality and should refund all fee's collected for research into performance of said funds.

Some may understand the IRONY of this, a fund performing at double the market rate during some of the hardest and most interesting times is a great accolade to said manager and I take great pride in his achievements.

Him to one side, from his perspective without emotion, USA cannot hope longer term to remain viable unless voters and lower castes and euthenics accept they live till they are 60, and the ruling class and in particular the ruling elite religion who only employs its own, votes for its own and ... so on .... unless the USA population accepts this ... and their place ... all hell is going to break loose and rightly so.
Its worse than the death cams of WW2 .... THE GAS CHAMBERS ARE NOW SILENT ONES ..... the music they played then is now ... a mixture of streamed entertainment ... games played till exhaustion .... clown elected to distract reality ... factual content ignored and shunned and even in this the most respected of all say the NY times or Washington post called fake news ... all sprinkled with right wing think tanks sprouting biased and totally crap media pieces on behalf of their members ....

What hope does one have ?

Each of the last 4 absolutely awful mortality reports in the USA had a paper written by an academic abut the shocking results. One the current Nobel prize winner ...
without fail the right wing .... funded by non other than investment banks and current Goldman Sachs favorite think tank came out each time to minimize ....the findings ... I didn't realize it was the same one ... each time coming out and quoted twice as much in the media.
Hilarious ... sad and sickening some of the papers ... they produced ... one debunking a paper with 20 odd contributes looking at billions of years .... of tax returns ... that being 20 years returns for 100 million people and Goldman Sachs pet used a study of millions of years of records .... about 1/1000 and from the most biased source they could find.

Sure it sounded good .... but was of course total crap and for the Oligarchy paying $100 million in bribes or supporting a think tank or politician for $50 million to get a tax cut that saves them 500 million s a great payoff and either 10/1 or 5/1. Usually its even higher than this. The single favor in the tax code may only appear to be tiny .... in the USA ... this is what Gates and BUffett tell themselves but over time ... not paying a single cent to care for a disabled person either via Medicare tax .... or Social Security .... which both evade without thought .... the impact other side ... and here is the crunch ... the pretense of even being fair ... even pretending to take care of the baby boomers or elderly in the USA is GONE ...
READ the 2018 TAX cut to the healthcare side ... let alone education or others ....
When someone already on their knees .... ut of breath has that plastic bag slipped over their head .... repeatedly .... see how long they last. One very common cause of a visti to emergency is ASTHMA ... and an easily treatable attack ....left in the waiting room ... will not last long. Even treated ... sent home with MINIMAL medication and since they cant afford it ... the Hospital itself ..... let alone the poor person needing treatment ...., gasping for each breath is anly about half way anlong the unpleasant that represents USA values in 2018.
Mr Trunbulll that Trump withdrew his ambassador to Australia the HH admiral ... after reading the "Meet Cindy the NEW USA ambassador to Australia" article I was only recently made aware of the reason and that you HID it from the media ... Well done. Suggest whilst your out visiting drought areas right now a set of balls is found and you stand UP to being abused. Maybe a spine as well could help.
I am actually ashamed of how many who are really aware of the issues .... and are ignoring it. Australia meanwhile taxes for the overall population to reach age 84 or so ... which requires healthcare be taxed ..... hence the fact our market lags so far behind the USA post GFC. All pretending is gone .... and if your government only charges 60% of the tax that other nations need to keep their population alive .... KNOWING full well the price is 30 years of life for all BLACKS , SPIKS, WOGS and Asians ... so be it.
For me, this dictates all future direction with the caveat that the USA is in extreme bubble territory even without this.. Sadly eventually we will be thrown out with the baby and bathwater ... then BUY.
Personally ... taking on a mountain ,,, Lat time was Janet Yellen ... and the FED about participation rates ..... this one ... a thankless mountain of pain. Is humanity worth even that ? Who cares ?I know who should .... the USA and 80% of its population but it sems that nearly 100% of them are even aware of the issue despite FACTUAL EASILY SEEN NUMBERS.
THis battle maybe someone else s, as even being politically correct NOT an option when dealing with mentally disturbed or those who resort to their tactics. Gaslighting where we see the abused actually so messed up falling in love with the abuser is about the state of some of these people. Even questioning some brings out an army of ants ....
Do I just shut up and relax ... for most ... this is their course and has been. Sadly, I doubt as a species we make it even over this hurdle when its revealed the full extent of the actions. Seriously, white rich in 1982 in the USA live till age 76 ... in 2019 they live till age 89. NON WHITE and poor whites in 1982 lived to age 71 and now ..... age 69.
Meanwhile poor in Australia live till age 82 .... v 72 back in 1982. So too the same for 15 Or more OECD nations.
I am confused where to go .... not market wise ... that ones easy ... this is a personal question. Do I take up a fight or an education in the hope of trying to change for the better this planet or just let things fall as they may and ... eventually can only end up ?
Sorry rambling but hope it helps






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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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tombeet
post Posted: Jun 2 2018, 03:38 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jan 24 2018, 10:32 AM

Hi Mark,
Have you got anymore updates for us missing your very informative updates on whats really happening behind all the froth and bubble, although thats seems to have slowed to a crawl now?

Tombeet.


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eBear
post Posted: Jun 2 2018, 10:16 AM
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In Reply To: eBear's post @ Feb 27 2017, 02:50 PM

Getting very very scary ...




... books cooked me thinks
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"There is no present or future-only the past, happening over and over again-now"

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Mags
post Posted: Jan 30 2018, 10:31 AM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jan 24 2018, 10:32 AM

QUOTE
Again not that anyone cares as the lower 80% are less than 10% of the actual economy in any economic sense.


And here is the problem, the 80% have no voice, no power, no assets, no wealth, nothing. It's a bad novel, in real life.

QUOTE
I would and will be happy to miss a LOT of the pain which is surely going to come. Being NOT invested somewhere for too long .... somehow and one misses the appreciation.


And this is where I'm at...been since 2008ish, topped up a few bits and pieces, but by and large held my holdings but never added.....

So in the case of another GFC type event, will likely look genius, but so far, looks pretty stupid (but I'm comfortable in the knowledge a 75% market drop would barely effect my lifestyle)

The one worry I do have, is if Fed/RBA go on a buying spree with the next downturn. That changes everything. EVERYTHING.

And the precedent is there, BOJ are showing the way. How much of the bond and Nikkei do they own now??? It's frightening.

Of course having the central bank, buying and propping up 'asset' prices is the ultimate aim of every sociopath. Create business/asset, float on market, receive many times startup capital, all the real cash in the sociopath's pocket, while the people (tax payers) are on the hook to pay for said 'asset' with interest.

Rinse, lather, repeat.

...and then we look at the other end of the spectrum, a socialist nation like Venezuela..... they end up with 80% under the poverty line
..hang on look at the 'capitalist' poster boy, USA......they end up with 80% under the poverty line......

I've said before, and I'll re-commit to it: Inequality is the great issue facing society as we know it.

 
kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 24 2018, 10:32 AM
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Well,

A surprise ... in the budget and spending side, CHIPS. Basically a low income subsidy for those children without health insurnce. WAS on the cutting block. Covered those families and kids ... about million with incomes of OVER Medicaid threshold so over $24,000- but under $30,000- ...

Was expecting this to be cut .... reason being in 2019, Medicaid, due to the ONE off that the USA corporate s bring back around 3 trillion and paying 15% tax ... so 400 billion ... will need to be slashed from the 2019 budget. Basically these cretins timed it so the spending cuts in their GLORY would not be displayed the same year as the massive tax cuts. The spending side is mandatory and lo and behold a scheme ... not even the LOWEST is saved via 6 years of funding.

A good thing.... but next year 2019 will be mayhem. Still remains to be seen if they cut community healthcare center funding for 2018 in the USA ... the healthcare provider for 30 million LOW income people. NOt that they care .... or maybe they do ... they have suprised me with this CHIPS funding but there is over 700 billion in cuts in 2019 still to be made and about 300 billion even in 2018 .... so cant hold my breath.

One thing was confirmed ... YET again ... with over 50% of all children coming from families either below poverty ... below medicaid food stamps line and BELOW CHIPS funding level of $30,000 family income ... YET again it confirms the fact ... that the MEDIAN ... MIDDLE income is for a family in the USA somewhere around the $35,000- level NOT the one they try and publish via BLS, or Commerce CLAIMING some middle income .. median at $60,000-..

As always, these cuts, whether this yer or next, ignoring the diabolical impacts on health and life itself .... taking money from Cindy for food stamps ... someone assured to spend it and giving it to Mr Koch or that Amazon dope ... never ever will stimulate the economy. Again not that anyone cares as the lower 80% are less than 10% of the actual economy in any economic sense.

Meanwhile S+P , NASDAQ hit higher and higher .... as expected.

As was the cse post GFC and ZERO forever was the tune we played ... things have CHANGED .... NOT ....

Traditionally as 3% GDP growth and 3% inflation one would expect interest rate to be neutral at say 1% over CPI and the deficit spending side for the USA be close to balanced and neutral. NOTHING .... could be further from where we are now.

Interest rates are 3% LOWER than they should be .... and government spending in the USA likely 3% of GDP deficit which again massive stimulus ...

as for the lowering to 21% from 35% ... not many paid 35% ... compliance was not great ... but at 21% .. its an artificial level that companies ... not being human ... not needing help sometimes and healthcare can exist upon, but for the humans ... its not a good thing. Again, lowering this rate moves the ever idiotic asset prices even higher when the obligation to pay tax is slashed by 33% in exchange for 25-30 years of life for the lower 80% ... we have what we have.

One side, one way ... head I win ... tails you loose ...up up and away the market goes.

OR so it seems. Still there are two release valves the USA cannot fully control and one being BOND rates, long term ones and if you have looked, the USA not in the grips of a temper tightening tantrum, its not that far away in relative terms. USA bonds are already smelling like roadkill. ITs the RELATIVE one has to look at in low interest rate environments and the USA compared to EU nations has lost more ground post 2013 than at any other time in history.

Currency second one and the USD has slipped and lost about 10%, so again no great panic. All held together via chewing gum and purchases via China and holdings of Japan .. which as for the past 20 years has always been the question ? Will they sell out, or down ? a catch 22 for them as they loose either way.

In the midst of this, the USA making it legal for USA based companies to take whatever tax measures they like overseas, now joined by a tariff of 30% on solar panels .... and the same on washing machines ...

Gee free trade ... on our terms ,,, buy our goods we will pay u no tax and then pick and choose which industries to protect ?

Sounds like trade wars to me .... tax war already in progress.
Again, not great either way.

Then again, no one willing to stand up to the tyrant and maybe a tariff of say 50,000% on awful red hair dye self imposed by China for exports to the USA might catch his attention.

Our market, it SUCKS ... lost 7% v USA in short order and happy 2018. Nothing like higher taxes on banks, resource side and overall to slow the thing down. Still, has to be said the massive benefit of franking credits and massive dividends still lost on most.

2017 saw banks hit with MORE reserve requirements and again a negative to the overall tone of the market and index v overseas ones. Like in the past, getting someone to buy a fully franked all up dividend with franking credits of 9% v cash at 1.5% is a hard sell. Much the same as it was in 2010-13. Buying say ANZ at $20- or NAB same level .. now has doubled your money. Awaiting this correction we KNOW will occur at some time in the USA is ... what it is ... a loosing game v buying on dips which still seem to abound in our market.

USA heading towards DOUBLE pre GFC highs ... and that's 3,100 and a bit for the S+P 500 .... whilst if it gets there as it will given GDP growth and inflation ... at some stage ... our market struggling t 6,000 v the 6,850 highs .... pre GFC. Different worlds and different outcomes during GFC and commodity prices well off pre GFC highs shaving about 15% off things and the fact our commercial real estate market got smashed post GFC when the RBA raised rates, v USA fed buying any and all bonds ... and going to zero ... has asset classes in the USA outside equities AGAIN and for some time up in LA LA land territory.

We still lack that catalyst. ME going your about to lower life expectancy by 10-15 years more over the 10years of life the lower 80% of the population in the USA lost post 1980 ... IS NOT A CATALYST. Its a statistic until someone DEMANDS it change. Not about to occur before its too late for the second to occur. Rich live till 90 ... the lower 80% live till age 60 in the USA.

Will EU or China call USA out on the current moves either via tax free for USA outside USA trade and pay nothing to anyone ? Or will they object about trade ? China has reached that lovely area that Japan did where DOMESTIC demand is taking over and overseas trade becoming less and less important to overall growth. IS the USA and the Chinese holdings of USA treasuries and US dollars that important ? They will loose either way trying to exit, or even reduce. DOes that mean they keep supporting the currency as has been seen in the past ?

Nothing new on these debates.

Standing back, USA valuations, THROW THE RULE BOOKS OUT.

Seriously the 2,500 level in the S+P was 1929 peak, peak of idiocy and whats new ? Some new policy that over time will reveal itself via falling USA population and overall life expectancy for the lower 80%. Here at 2,800 and change nearly 15% above a high water mark for stupidity ... but ONE CANNOT and SHOULD NOT argue with the markets wisdom. One hand, vi GDP growth and CPI it will always go up, but at these extremes, and this clearly is one, the correction in 1930 saw nearly 25 years pass before the previous high was hit again.

INflation adjusted ... it took 40 years to hit a new HIGH

and here we are ... 115% of the highest high ... arrr .... yes if I am like a cat with a long tail in a room full of rocking chairs at present there is very good reason for that.

I would and will be happy to miss a LOT of the pain which is surely going to come. Being NOT invested somewhere for too long .... somehow and one misses the appreciation. Standing out for a 1% ... caution .... as I tend to do as in 2014 ... and again last year with the technical level that the market now being fed a different diet in the USA ignored ... the next one on the topside I suppose 3,100 or so ... DOUBLE the previous all time high pre GFC ... 5 times the low 2002 at 3,300 ish or 4 times the post GFC low ? at again 3,100 and hey presto we have a winner ... technically at least. Only another 10% from here for the S+P 500 so sometime next week ?
Kidding about next week ... but these MEGA levels are like magnets for the computer driven systems and since 2,500 was not stupid enough ... lets try higher.

Enjoy 2018 and ignore if you can the hot air. Eyes on bonds and currency, or some other unseen force that will topple the cart.

take care

MArk




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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