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Nickel, Discussion
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 22 2018, 09:15 PM
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Doubts cast on plans for deluge of new nickel supply
Reuters
QUOTE
* Market spooked by estimated cost of HPAL plant

* Building HPAL facility more complicated than NPI smelter

LONDON – Expectations of a supply avalanche hitting the nickel market next year due to new capacity in Indonesia have sent prices to seven-month lows, but analysts doubt the plans spearheaded by Chinese firms can be carried out so quickly.

Benchmark nickel on the London Metal Exchange nearing $11,000 a tonne is down more than 15 percent since late September, partly due to the U.S.-China trade dispute undermining demand for the metal used in stainless steel.
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Nickel is also vital for the lithium-ion batteries used to power electric vehicles, where demand is set to accelerate exponentially over coming years. This is why companies in China, which dominates electric vehicle battery production, need to secure nickel supplies.

That includes GEM, which recently announced it was teaming up with Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and Tsingshan Holding Group to invest $700 million in an Indonesian project to produce battery-grade nickel chemicals.

Also involved is Japanese trading house Hanwa, which in a release said production would start in 2019.

The consortium aims to establish a 50,000-tonne high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facility at Tsingshan's industrial park in Morowali, on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi, to produce nickel and cobalt chemicals.

"There is panic about supply, but the Tsingshan project isn't going to hit the market next year. It will take two to three years," said Jim Lennon, managing director of Red Door Research.

GEM, CATL and Tsingshan did not respond to requests for comment.

A source at one of the Chinese partners said construction may start at the end of 2019 after a site had been selected and the equipment ordered and delivered, but that the date may be pushed back to 2020.

"What also spooked everybody was that they said it was going to cost $700 million," Lennon said.

"Pretty much every HPAL project has taken longer and cost more than was originally announced."

One example analysts cite is Ambatovy in Madagascar. On its website, Ambatovy says the project cost $8 billion and will have capacity to produce 60,000 tonnes of nickel.




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 20 2018, 10:53 AM
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Flow of LME nickel to hidden storage dents bull story
Reuters | about 8 hours ago |

QUOTE
LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) – The bulk of nickel moving out of London Metal Exchange-approved warehouses in Asia is showing up in hidden facilities in Europe, analysts said, denting a bullish scenario of potential shortages.

LME nickel stocks have shrunk by about 40 percent this year, largely from warehouses in Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore, but much of that metal is not being consumed, industry sources and analysts said.

Nickel is mainly used to make stainless steel, but forecasts show that more will be needed for electric vehicle batteries in coming years.

It has been the LME's top performer this year and prices were up 25 percent in June, before the wider market was hit by macroeconomic worries.

Some investors have been bullish about the sharply lower inventories, arguing that deficits and strong consumption were finally cutting stockpiles and raising prospects for shortages.Trade data shows that much of the nickel departing Asia is arriving in the Netherlands, a warehousing centre with both LME depots and non-registered ones with cheaper rental rates.

"Some people are taking a bullish tone from the draw in stocks, but you shouldn't be 100 percent bullish about the stocks draw if you look at where the stock is travelling," said Macquarie analyst Vivienne Lloyd.

"Europe is not such a big nickel consumer that it would suddenly need such a large stock draw from the LME Asian warehouses. So, it seems more likely to point to stocking behaviour in Europe."

During the first seven months of the year 39,358 tonnes of unwrought nickel was exported from Malaysia to the Netherlands, compared with 1,167 tonnes in the same period last year, according to data from the International Nickel Study Group.


read more - http://www.mining.com/web/flow-lme-nickel-...nts-bull-story/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 30 2018, 02:01 PM
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Indonesian island of Sulawesi.was hit by that big earthquake & tsunami last week. Recent IPO NIC is also located there (I believe)

China battery firms set up $700m nickel joint venture in Indonesia
Reuters | a day ago
QUOTE
BEIJING, Sept 28 (Reuters) – Chinese battery firm GEM Co Ltd on Friday said it was teaming up with four companies to invest a total of $700 million in a project to produce battery-grade nickel chemicals in Indonesia.

The investment comes as several global metals producers have also set their sights on Indonesia's nickel reserves, looking to tap an expected surge in demand for the battery metal from the electric vehicle sector.

The companies joining GEM include units of top Chinese lithium battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL) and stainless steel-maker Tsingshan Holding Group.

They aim to establish nickel smelting capacity of at least 50,000 tonnes per year at Tsingshan's industrial park in Morowali on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi.

The project will also have 4,000 tonnes of cobalt smelting capacity, as well as churning out a range of battery chemicals, including 50,000 tonnes per year of nickel hydroxide intermediates.

"In the future, the product structure will be adjusted according to the global market demand and the production scale will be expanded," GEM said in an emailed statement, without providing a launch date.


read more - http://www.mining.com/web/china-battery-fi...ture-indonesia/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 19 2018, 03:57 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 20 2018, 05:08 PM

Bell Potter gives NIC a BUY rating with a 45c target - but then Bell Potter was NIC's broker in the recent $200 mil cap raise

QUOTE
Nickel Mines ((NIC)) could become a significant operator in the global nickel industry. The catalyst, Bell Potter believes, is a collaboration and subscription agreement with Tsingshan, the world's largest stainless steel producer. Tsingshan operates a fully integrated stainless steel facility in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park.

Via this agreement, Nickel Mines has applied US$70m of its IPO funds to lift ownership of two rotary kiln electric furnace lines at the park to 60% from 25%. This paves the way for equity production of 10,000tpa of nickel in nickel pig iron in 2019. These production lines are well advanced with commissioning on track for the June quarter of 2019. Bell Potter believes Nickel Mines represents a compelling opportunity to gain exposure to low-risk, low-cost nickel production.

The broker initiates coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.45 target, suggesting the stock is a rare exposure to strengthening nickel market fundamentals as one of only a handful of listed, pure nickel plays worldwide.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 19 2018, 11:24 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 20 2018, 05:08 PM

QUOTE
Inauspicious launch


Having a project in Indonesia has certain risks attaching - IAU's "stolen mine" just one that immediately comes to mind. One for the brave, IMHO

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/a-guide-to-...e-in-indonesia/





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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 19 2018, 11:03 AM
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Top nickel miners ranked - includes ASX listed BHP, S32 and WSA
Michael Allan McCrae | about 5 hours ago |
QUOTE
Note, this is nickel just derived from mines. Total excludes nickel provided by external parties.

Nickel, a key metal for lithium-ion batteries and part of the electrification drive, was on a tear for most of 2018 but has recently fallen to earth. Nickel was up 25 percent this spring when it was trading above $15,000 per tonne, but it has recently succumbed to the base metal rout and is now down to $12,400 per tonne on the LME.

http://www.mining.com/top-nickel-miners-ra...017-production/
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 


nipper
post Posted: Aug 20 2018, 05:08 PM
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Inauspicious launch - Nickel Mines Ltd (NIC) hit the bourse at 30c and ended the day at 28c ........... pity the IPO was @ 35c a share

www.nickelmines.com.au

Raised $200mill . Chinese, Wijoya Family shareholders, Indonesian mine.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 16 2018, 01:17 PM
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Nickel is dancing to a new electric (vehicle) beat
Reuters | about 9 hours ago |

QUOTE
The nickel market may be changing.

Graphic on price correlations between nickel, stainless steel and cobalt from Nornickel's Q2 results presentation:

read more - http://www.mining.com/web/nickel-dancing-n...c-vehicle-beat/
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 8 2018, 11:26 AM
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Tasmanian nickel mine to restart, Transamine secures offtake
QUOTE
KALGOORLIE, Aug 7 (Reuters) – Privately held Dundas Mining is restarting its Avebury nickel mine in Tasmania early next year and Swiss trading house Transamine has secured the offtake, a source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

Avebury, which had most recently been owned by China-backed MMG, was sold to Dundas last year and has been on care and maintenance since 2009.

The will produce around 7,000-8,000 tonnes of nickel and Transamine has secured offtake for the full amount, the person said. The concentrate will be sold into the battery and stainless steel markets. The trading house will provide a line of finance in double digit millions of dollars, the person said.

http://www.mining.com/web/tasmanian-nickel...ecures-offtake/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 7 2018, 07:57 PM
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Some comments from WSA
QUOTE
Western Areas managing director Dan Lougher has fired a warning shot to nickel laterite developers, questioning whether the oncoming battery boom will make high-cost projects viable.

The euphoria around the potential for lithium ion batteries to transform demand for their highest volume ingredient and rising prices for cobalt have prompted owners of a string of low-grade lateritic projects to dust them off.

Large-scale nickel laterite mines can be costly to both build and process, often relying on a chemical-intensive process called high-pressure acid leach to extract the resource.

Mr Lougher told delegates at the Diggers and Dealers forum in Kalgoorlie-Boulder today the battery market would be a growing contributor to nickel demand over the next decade, which was still dominated by steel makers, but that high-grade nickel sulphide producers would be the quickest to scale up for the new market.

“It does accelerate, that’s what history tells us, but even if you don’t take the amber colour there is still huge need and demand for that nickel,” he said. “The product of sulphides is actually diminishing.

“So we’re not discovering deposits, or we’re discovering lower-grade deposits which have got complex metallurgical requirements to extract it.

“This is not an insult to HPAL, it’s a very high-intensive capital program and unfortunately track records tell us that nobody has really brought one on, no one has really hit nameplate capacity, and there is usually a capex blowout.

“The saving grace is cobalt by-product credits and if you don’t have it I think you’re going to be struggling.”

https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/digg...s-ng-b88920940z





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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