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USD, American Dollar Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Jun 20 2018, 10:43 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 20 2018, 09:44 PM

I kind of think currencies are the biggest mugs' game or at least the hardest to call. They aren't anything primary, really only the result of other actions. And have different hierarchies. I mean what is the EUR: AUD relationship when USD and Yuan or Yen exceed by orders of magnitude.

And then as a retail mug, don't get me started on perceived rates and what ends up in yr pocket, or on the statement!



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 20 2018, 09:44 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 20 2018, 07:51 PM

Thanks Nipper, that seems organised then.
Was planning a trip to Canada next year, so I guess I will have to start thinking about getting some loonies.
Though past experience says that the two currencies bare generally in lockstep. Similar types of economy, high in resources etc.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 20 2018, 07:51 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 20 2018, 05:57 PM

QUOTE
Not sure where I go to from here
... well, if you sold all yr OS currency, you'll have to stay within the country!



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 20 2018, 05:57 PM
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Well, as of tonight I will have sold out of all my USD cash.
The AUD may well go lower against the USD, but from here the profits are struggling unless something disastrous happens.
Cant trade based on something disastrous happening. Its the when part that gets me every time.
Not sure where I go to from here.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 15 2018, 08:52 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 14 2018, 10:46 PM

Chuck Butler has a quite interesting take on the Interest rate rises.
Rather than being a response to rising employment, increasing inflation and a heating economy, he sees the rush to raise interest rates so as to "fill their quiver with arrows to use on the upcoming recession".
May be some truth in that, though predicting the Timing as distinct from the chances of recessions can be a little difficult.
The reaction overnight must have been a delayed one from the rate hike, in combination with the ERCB President's speech.
Every currency down, some(the Euro) in a big way.

Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 14 2018, 10:46 PM
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In Reply To: lgrif's post @ Jun 14 2018, 12:12 PM

Perhaps markets have been waiting for the Press Conference from Draghi after the latest meeting.
They have said they will halt QE at the end of 2018, but expect that no interest rate rises will be forthcoming at least until (northern) Summer 2019l
The Euro down about 70 basis points.
Noticed that US retail sales jumped 0.8% in May, against a consensus guess of 0.4%.
Thats a fairly big error difference.
Be interesting to see if its sustained.
A retail sale annual growth of 3.6% would be motoring along all right.
I guess if unemployment and underemployment keeps shrinking, its go to eventually work through to higher wages some time.
Mick



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lgrif
post Posted: Jun 14 2018, 12:12 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 14 2018, 09:18 AM

Yeh, I'm going in Sept & thought $A would weaken against the Euro, so put a bit on travel card ~ 6 weeks ago. Not a smart move; $A moved up a bit. As a currency player I suck.
Think I'll sit back till near leaving time to buy more Euro.

 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 14 2018, 09:45 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 14 2018, 09:18 AM

Nah, they probably heard you were coming.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 14 2018, 09:18 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 14 2018, 09:16 AM

yeah, but I'm off to Europe soon, and AUD:EUR, which was rebuilding, suddenly dropped. Collateral reaction, I guess



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 14 2018, 09:16 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 12 2018, 08:32 PM

The Fed raises interest rates again, and what happens, a big Yawn.
No reaction. Yes it was priced in, but really, the AUD down 0.03%
Other currencies went up by the same amount.
The worlds currency seems to be in a holding pattern waiting for something to happen.
Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


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